College Capper: Best Bets Week 6

Chris' Picks

This feels like it's been a good year for underdogs. That doesn't seem to work well for me, whose brain seems to only work in thinking a team wins by more than a number rather than doesn't lose. Last week was brutal, so maybe we should rename this column College Capper, Fade My Picks, Week 6? Or maybe we accept that it can't be much worse. To my modest credit, I've had two winners in the comments recently, and I've stayed away from some obvious traps. This week, that trap seems like Notre Dame (-20.5) vs. FSU. What am I missing? Anyway, on to this week's favorites, where I'm clearly setting myself up for failure with plenty of games in the path of Hurricane Delta.

Syracuse (+2.5) vs. Duke

The 'Cuse are normally a team I want to go against, but so is Duke. So why land here? Duke doesn't deserve to be favored over anyone, especially on the road. Duke ranks 60th nationally in run defense (out of 74), allowing 193.5 yards per game, allowing 5.89 yards per carry and seven touchdowns in their last two games. Syracuse may have found something in freshman RB Sean Tucker, who ran for 112 yards and two scores in their last outing against Georgia Tech. This line moved from (-1.5) to (+2.5), and I'm happy to try that movement.

Florida (-6.5) at Texas A&M

This one does feel a bit like a trap, but I thoroughly enjoy teams that were beaten up by Alabama the week prior, as that game tends to carry over, physically and mentally. The Florida defense also worries me, as it's been vulnerable to pass and has suffered through poor tackling. But I just don't see how the Aggies can keep up with the Gators for four quarters. The Aggies allowed 16.1 yards per attempt and four TDs thought he air last week, which seems ominous with QB Kyle Trask coming to town, who's already thrown for 10 TDs through two weeks. 

Marshall (-6.5) at Western Kentucky

This is two weeks in a row I've swung from one side to another, and last week was unsuccessful. But I'm over Western Kentucky. They have a returning 1,200-yard rusher in Gaej Walker who has seen a mere 25 carries through three weeks. They are instead funneling their offense through Maryland transfer QB Tyrell Pigrome, who is completing just 58.3 percent of his passes, averaging 4.2 yards per carry on 47 rushes. They are averaging 21.7 ppg while allowing 27.3 ppg, being gashed on the ground for 200 yards weekly. That should open up plenty of opportunity for Herd RB Brenden Knox to put plenty of points up, even more so if the game is bothered by the weather.

Kentucky (-2.5) vs. Mississippi State

The shine came off of the Pirate and Mike Leach rapidly last week. The real concern is their inability to run the ball, not creating offensive balance and allowing the Air Raid to succeed. They've run 40 times through two games, gaining a mere 96 yards, a stunningly low number with Kylin Hill in their backfield. I'm banking on this game being heavily mucked up by Hurricane Delta, and allowing Kentucky's ground game to dominate time of possession and thus the scoreboard. Kentucky ranks fifth nationally, rushing for 276.5 yards per game and 5.88 yards per carry. Yes, the Bulldogs have been stingy against the run, but that was against Arkansas in a shocking loss, and LSU breaking in a new back, and being forced to throw to keep up. 

Auburn (-13.5) vs. Arkansas

Outside of potential weather, this game should come down to who moves on from last week. Does Arkansas think too highly of themselves after knocking off Mississippi State? Does Auburn sulk over last week's loss to Georgia and go through the motions. I think this is a prime letdown spot for Arkansas, and also think the Gus Malzahn/Chad Morris revenge factor against their former employer keeps the Tigers' foot on the gas. Auburn rebounds in a big way.

Last week: 0-4-1, Season 9-13-2

GREG'S PICKS

If it feels like we've been here before, you're right. For the third consecutive week, I posted a winning record, but once again, just one above the .500 line. This feels like a run I had a couple of years ago where I went 3-2 for a seemingly three months straight. While I would prefer a better winning record, I'm not going to complain about any winning week. Once again, the wins came easy with TCU winning outright as a double-digit dog, Oklahoma State crushing from the get-go and Boston College staying close to North Carolina all day. The losses weren't all that close either as the Kansas State over wasn't that close, and Florida was only above the number for a short time in the second of its game against South Carolina.  

Tulane (+6.5) at Houston

I was curious to see how Tulane would respond after its meltdown against Navy a few weeks ago, but if its effort against Southern Miss the following week is any indication, the Green Wave is going to be just fine. This sets up as an interesting matchup as this will be Tulane's fourth game this season and Houston's first game. Houston is coming off a tough season where many players, including D'Eriq King, abandoned ship midseason, but all the trouble the Cougars went through last season is bound to help them this season as they got a head start breaking in a lot of young players. While I expect Houston to play well this season, it's not going to be easy to get started against a team that's been playing real games for a month now.            

Over (72) Oklahoma vs Texas

It's probably the least anticipated Red River Showdown in years, but that doesn't mean it won't be exciting. Both teams are coming in off tough losses, but both have shown the ability to put up points. The problem is of course, the defense for each team. Oklahoma was a sieve in the second half against Iowa State this past week and Texas offered no opposition to TCU at any point. The Sooners have surrendered 37.5 points per game in conference, while the Longhorns have allowed 44.5 points per game. The funny thing is each of these teams will be facing their biggest tests on defense this week. It's going to take a lot of bad breaks to keep this number under 80 points, let alone 72.           

Texas Tech (+12.5) at Iowa State 

It feels like one of those seasons in the Big 12 where no one stays atop the conferences very long and as of now, Iowa State is on top. The Cyclones are atop the conference thanks to their win against Oklahoma this past week. Therein lies the problem for them this week. The hangover factor is in effect this week as ISU's victory was a huge one. I doubt the Cyclones will be well prepared to play this game. Texas Tech meanwhile has fought hard in its two losses this year and I don't expect them to just lay down in this spot.         

Over (55) East Carolina as South Florida

On the surface, it seems absurd that a game involving East Carolina has a total in the 50s, but there is a reason that the total is so low. The reason is, USF has been involved in some low scoring games this season, including one which resulted in 33 total points and one that resulted in 35 points. Here's the run though, in both of those games there was one side that was severely outmatched. USF held The Citadel to six points and Cincinnati held USF to seven points. This won't be that type of game however and East Carolina isn't shutting down anyone and USF has no chance of slowing the Pirates. This won't be like the previous two games that East Carolina has played either, there won't be 70+ points, but there won't have to be, just high-50s is all we need.     

Kansas State (+9) at TCU

Another case of a team coming off a big win this past week as TCU will try to stay focused after toppling Texas. TCU is a well-coached team and I have to imagine that Gary Patterson knows how to navigate these waters, but these are young men who often have short attention spans. I doubt Kansas State will get the same amount of attention as Texas did the week prior. Even if TCU is ready to play, the Horned Frogs will likely have a problem separating from the Wildcats. KSU pulled off a big win of its own two weeks ago when it handed Oklahoma its first loss of the season and the Wildcats backed-up that win with a fairly easy win over Texas Tech this past week.        

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 9-12-0