College Capper: Week 3 Picks

Chris' Picks

The book giveth, the book taketh away. After a solid start through two weeks, I came crashing back to earth last weekend, with my only win being a Pittsburgh side that did everything possible to not cover. I really liked the picks last week too. That sounds obvious, but there's always a different confidence level weekly. And with that in mind, I loathe this week's slate/spreads. Just don't have a great feel for anything. So hopefully that yields a different result than last week.

(All lines courtesy of DraftKings as of Wednesday night, shopping around is highly encouraged.)

Coastal Carolina (-14) at Buffalo

There's reason for concern here, so maybe I'm foolish for taking the bait. Coastal haven't played a road game in front of fans in ages, but how many do we expect at Buffalo? The Chanticleers are also woeful against the run, allowing 4.3 ypc and five TDs through two games, and we know that's the Bulls' bread and butter (5.0 ypc, seven TDs). Buffalo is going to be feisty and keep this close for two, maybe 2.5 quarters. But I just think Coastal's offense is too much for the Bulls to keep up with. They'll score and score some more and stretch this out by the final whistle.

Iowa (-23.5) vs. Kent State

Under 56.5 points

I'm going to double-dip here. A theme in this week's picks evolved, that being teams in obvious letdown spots. I guess I'm banking on at least a few overcoming that. Iowa likely doesn't care about this game and thinks they win with ease. That's fine, and likely true. But the defense is flat out elite, so much so I don't see where the Golden Flashes get points. But they can have 10, Iowa cover, and this still goes way under the total. The Hawkeyes will run successfully, creating fewer possessions and fewer scoring opportunities. And yes, Kirk Ferentz teams' aren't great as double-digit favorites. But I just can't see this one being much different than Kent State's opening week game against Texas A&M, a 41-10 loss. We'll take a repeat, but I'm thinking more along the lines of 35-3.

Toledo (-14.5) vs. Colorado State

Another game where maybe I'm taking the bait. Surely the Rockets are going to be flat after last week's narrow loss at Notre Dame. But the Rams have the look of one of the nation's worst FBS teams, losing to Vanderbilt and South Dakota State, scoring just 44 points in those contests. I understand the Irish are sorting out their own offensive line issues, but if Toledo can stuff ND's rushing attack, I'll trust them to do something similar against CSU. Similar line to Coastal, similar script. Slow-ish start, get a lead later and build on it. I don't think the Rams have an answer for Toledo WR Devin Maddox (20.5 yards per catch) and he'll make some field-stretching plays to get us a 17-point or better win. 

Marshall (-10) vs. East Carolina

ECU QB Holton Ahlers is struggling, completing only 51.6 percent of his passes (against 61.3 a year ago) with a 2:3 TD:INT ratio, leading the Pirates to only 36 points through two games. That seems like bad news when traveling to West Virginia to face a Marshall defense that's allowed only 17 points thus far. On the other side, Herd QB Grant Wells appears to be developing in his second season, tossing for 300+ yards in consecutive games. I have confidence in at least one of the Herd's defense shutting down ECU, or Wells putting up ample points to win this game by more than a possession. And if both happen, this is a route.

Last week: 1-4; season 7-7

Greg's Picks

Three weeks into the 2021 season and I finally broke out of my "even-Steven" trend. Okay, it was just two weeks, so it was hardly a trend and when I posted an odd number of games, I was bound to break away from an even record. I was hoping to be on the winning side, but as happens so often, I missed out by just one point. That one-point outcome came in the form of the total points scored in the Ohio State vs Oregon game which landed on 63 points, half a point shy of the line I had. It was an odd place to land as OSU looked unstoppable late in the game and the Buckeyes had the ball with a chance to score again late, but it didn't happen. No complaints here though as I felt fortunate to get the back door cover with South Florida. As for the other games, I had a winner with Coastal Carolina and losers with UAB and Iowa State.

All lines courtesy of draftkings.com

Over (62.5) Oklahoma vs Nebraska

My first inclination was to side with the Sooners in this spot because I'm not confident that the 'Huskers can keep this close, but Tulane was able to put up 35 points on the Sooners and it's not like the Green Wave are an offensive juggernaut. The best play here is probably the team total for Oklahoma, which is right around 42 points right now, but we like to pick games the old-fashioned way here, so I'll stick with the game total. Nebraska has looked better the past two weeks, but I can't forget the Husker's allowing 30 points to Illinois in Week 0. Just imagine what the Sooner offense is going to do to them.             
 

Michigan State (+6.5) at Miami 

This is one of those early-season games that will likely be an easy win or a bad loss, but the nice thing is, you won't have to sweat it for 60 minutes. Michigan State is 2-0 on the season and its first win came at Northwestern, which was supposed to be a good team this year. Things are still shaking out, but if Northwestern is decent, then it would make sense that the Spartans are also pretty good. If that's the case, this number is too big. If not, well, then this could get ugly. We weren't able to glean much from Miami's opening week loss to Alabama because, well, it's Alabama, but I believe they'll be a decent team this year. Good enough to beat an up-and-coming (I think) Spartan team by a touchdown though? I don't think so.  

Cincinnati (-4) at Indiana

This pick has nothing to do with Indiana's brutal loss at Iowa, in fact, I would have preferred the Hoosiers coming into this one without a loss, as the line might be lower, but the line is still low enough to grab the Bearcats here. I'm a little concerned that the line is so low to be honest, after all, the Bearcats are ranked 8th in the country and the Hoosiers are unranked, but maybe they are factoring in that the Hoosiers were supposed to be solid this season. Whatever the case, I feel comfortable in this spot because the Bearcats have a battle-tested QB in Desmond Ridder and he'll be able to pull out a win on the road against a power-5 team.

Alabama (-14) at Florida

Almost everyone is hoping for a competitive game here this week, but I don't think we're going to get one. Alabama again looks like a machine and while Florida has impressed early this season, there are some troubling aspects that make me wonder if the Gators can hang with Alabama. The biggest problem is the QB play as the Gators' starting QB has thrown four interceptions this season against some poor competition. If he throws multiple picks this week, they have no chance of keeping it within the number. The only chance the Gators have is the running game, but even though the 'Bama defense isn't as solid as it once was, the 'Tide can usually slow down one-dimensional teams and if the Gators are worried about interceptions and become one-dimensional, this game with be over by halftime.

Ohio State (-24.5) vs Tulsa

Ohio State did not play up to its standards this past week against Oregon, but before you right them off, consider that Oregon is a very solid team this year and OSU is still breaking in a fresh QB. The Buckeye defense needs work, there's no doubt about that, but they have faced a couple solid offenses to start the year, so perhaps they aren't as bad as we think. Tulsa is simply walking into a tough spot this week, it's going to get an angry and talented Ohio State team and it's not going to be pretty. The only way the Buckeyes don't cover here is if they simply aren't that good and I think they are still a pretty good team, they just ran into a buzz saw this past week.  

Last Week: 2-3-0, Last Season: 5-6-0