College Football DFS: New Mexico Bowl Showdown Slate

The Houston Cougars and the Hawaii Golden Warriors will fight it out in the New Mexico Bowl on Christmas Eve, and DraftKings is providing a Showdown contest for the game. We'll examine tackling this game via the unique Showdown format.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Houston vs. Hawaii (+10.5) O/U: 60

For starters, the New Mexico Bowl isn't being played in New Mexico. Due to COVID restrictions, the game is now taking place in Frisco, TX. This tags on an additional two hours of flight time for Hawaii, making it a roughly eight-hour flight to get to the site.  Conversely, the Cougars will almost be playing a home game in Frisco.  

Hawaii is a team that's to be thwarted by COVID, and they managed to play a full schedule in the Mountain West's shortened season.  That's a disadvantage for Houston, as they've had two canceled games and are also coming off a fairly significant layoff.

Both teams possess high-powered offenses, but it's the Cougars who have a superior defense. They've recorded 22 sacks this season, which puts them among the nation's best in getting to the quarterback. The wrinkle here is that the Cougars will be without their best defensive players, as linebacker Grant Stuard and defensive lineman Payton Turner have opted out of the bowl game.  Their absences could open up for quarterback Chase Cordeiro and the pass-heavy Hawaii offense.

LINEUP CONSTRUCTION

If you aren't familiar with the Showdown format, the roster consists of five FLEX positions and one Captain (CPTN) position.  Any player can fill these positions. The CPTN position receives 1.5x of his score, but the player's salary is also increased by 1.5x when he is placed in that slot.  While conventional wisdom dictates that your goal is to find the player who scores the most points and put them in the Captain spot, that is not always the case.  That best player's high salary could compromise the quality of those FLEX positions. The goal is to determine the value of a Captain's salary differential by assigning a projection and then finding a FP-per-dollar value for that .5x increase. The number will then allow you to determine if the Captain is worth the increase by comparing various combinations of other potential Captains using the same formula, which can provide different FLEX players and potentially yield more production.

I realize all that sounds complicated, and there's a lot more to it, but luckily I've done the work for you.  By and large, college football showdowns will almost always have a quarterback in the CPTN spot. It's especially true in this game, where the passing game drives both offenses. There is also no elite receiver that you can reliably target as a captain (think DeVonta Smith) on either team.

CAPTAINS

QB Clayton Tune, Houston (CAPTN $19,200, FLEX $12,800)

While Tune's production alone warrants an endorsement, I expect Houston's defense to have more success in reining in Hawaii's passing attack than the other way around. Tune averages 261 passing yards per game with 13 touchdown passes to his credit.  He's also used his feet to run for five touchdowns and has logged over 200 yards rushing in the process. Again, this deduction falls to an analysis of the defense on both sides of the ball. Houston has given up an average of 33 points, but Hawaii's secondary has been especially porous against opposing quarterbacks. Combine the travel time with Tune's superior numbers, and he comes out as the better play.  Due to their prohibitive price, there are very few scenarios where finding room for both quarterbacks in the lineup is possible, but let's look at that angle.

Combining Tune and QB Chevan Cordeiro will leave you an average of $4,600 per player for your remaining four flex positions. Here are five players in that range:

K Dalton Witherspoon, Houston ($4,200)

K Matthew Shipley, Hawaii ($3,800)

WR Bryson Smith, Houston ($4,600)

WR Jared Smart, Hawaii ($4,800)

WR Nick Mardner, Hawaii ($3,600)

There are a few other options that run even lower, but they don't have sufficient floors.

As you can see, fielding at least one kicker would probably be necessary.  Both Smith and Smart are ok options, but certainly not the best targets for either team. The two receivers have 49 receptions between them, which certainly isn't bad. So, this is one viable way to go.

If we stick with just Tune, our options open up, with an average of $6,150 per roster spot. The better value is to target secondary Houston receivers, and the reason is twofold. For one, they create a QB-WR stack.  Secondly, the Cougars will be without Marquez Stevenson's services, as he is opting out to prepare for the NFL combine. Other wideouts will need to step up to absorb that output.

WR Christian Trahan, Houston ($5,600)

WR Keith Corbin, Houston ($6,800)

RB Kyle Porter, Houston ($8,000)

As you can see by their numbers, you get a more reliable floor with this route, but I think the differential isn't enough to offset the .5x differential you'd get from Tune. It's still a way to go if you are fielding multiple lineups.

There is one other way to go that is worth considering. Rather than adding Cordeiro as your first FLEX, slotting do-it-all running back Calvin Turner ($10,200) in with a combo of the lists mentioned above is a sensible method. The Hawaii running back may be the team's best weapon if the passing game falters.