This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Army vs. Temple
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An undefeated Army Black Knights squad travels to Philadelphia to face Temple Thursday evening. Army sits at a perfect 3-0 ATS with the over hitting twice. Temple is riding high off their first win of the season, an upset over Utah State. They sit at 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS, with the over hitting at the same rate. Temple has covered in two straight games.
Army vs. Temple Betting Odds for Week 5
Spread: Army -12 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook); Temple +12.5 (-105 Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 46.5 (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 47.5 (-105 Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Army -480 (Caesars Sportsbook); Temple +390 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
These lines are live as of Wednesday early evening on the East Coast, and it's pretty rare to see such disparity. It opened with Army being 10-point favorites and almost immediately reached -13, ticking even higher to -13.5 before beginning to backtrack. I have no earthly idea what I'd expect from it between now and kickoff other than you'd expect a more unanimous line across books. Keeping it at any number under two touchdowns gives Army a better chance at covering in their option offense.
The total has seen far less fluctuation, though it has slowly risen. It opened at 45.5, which can still be had on some sites, but it's slowly ticked up a point at most locations.
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Army vs. Temple Betting Picks for Week 5
Long-time readers know I'm not usually a totals guy (though I did have a correct lean last week in Utah—Oklahoma State!). Perhaps I'm overthinking this, but it's a complete non-play for me. On one hand, Army is going to run the ball all game and churn the clock. On the other hand, Temple is terrible at stopping the run, which can lead to sustained drives but also big plays and long scoring plays.
That leaves us with the spread, as the moneyline offers know value. Temple has covered in two straight, and I genuienly feel they're playing better, falling to Coastal Carolina by just eight before last week's upset victory. But this doesn't present as a matchup for that to continue. The Owls have been statistically solid against the pass despite an 8:1 TD:INT ratio, allowing 166.5 ypg and 6.5 ypa, but that's because every opponent has run right through them. They're allowing 219.75 ypg and 5.3 ypc on the ground. Temple has also already played Navy, allowing 38 points, 298 yards and four rushing touchdowns, all season highs. Perhaps seeing a similar option attack twice in three weeks is to their advantage. They'll need that in a short week if they are to have a chance. Or perhaps the Owls are just really bad against the run.
Army had last week off to boot. Surely they saw Temple's upset and won't overlook this opponent. It's going to be tough to pinpoint a line for this pick, but I'd feel comfortable with any number under -14.
Army vs. Temple Expert Pick: Army -12 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Army vs. Temple Predictions for Week 5
The Black Knights' defense has been statistically stout against both the run and the pass and has allowed just 28 total points through three games. Temple has allowed at least that in every one of their four. If we assume Army can reach that threshold, it's going to take a lot of work for Temple to match that, given Army's defensive scoring trend and the fact that the clock will be moving and possessions will be limited. To no surprise, Army is second nationally in time of possession.
With so few opportunities, Temple will need to be perfect offensively. They won't be. We all know exactly what's coming, but I have little faith in Temple's ability to stop it. This is scary, because it's so well known and so obvious it makes me nervous. Army QB Bryson Daily adds at least two more touchdowns to his season total, and Noah Short gets some big chunk gains, he's averaging 13.3 ypc, to help the Black Knights stretch it out.
Army 30-14
