College Football Picks: CFB Week 5 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Written by

Chris Bennett

Jeff Edgerton

Greg Vara

Published on September 26, 2024

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Chris' Picks

I just can't get into a groove. While my two winners hit pretty easily last week, that still left three losers. I take full responsibility for North Carolina State, as I was lazy and unaware of the quarterback situation. Syracuse laid an egg, and East Carolina choked, blowing a 17-point lead. Thanks for nothing! If it's any consolation, I'm 3-1 in our single-game breakdowns.

On we go. I'm not touching Alabama - Georgia, but I lean toward Alabama with points at home. One game I liked early Sunday evening was Georgia State over Georgia Southern, as the Panthers opened as a pick 'em to one-point underdog but are now favored by 3.5. So we'll pass. Keep an eye on the southeast region and remnants of Hurricane Helene. The path seems somewhat unconfirmed, but there is likely to be some leftover wind and rain. That's a massive storm that's going to impact multiple states. And my Florida panhandle readers - stay safe!

Under 53.5 Kentucky at Mississippi

Gasp, when things are going poorly, I change my tune, and I'm looking at totals. I jump around and write these picks, this was the last addition, but first on the schedule, so this is an intro and exit simultaneously. I'm tempted by the spread on the Rebels, and it makes sense, they are 4-0 ATS and we know they'll just keep going and going and run things up. It's the best, most explosive offense Kentucky as seen, but they've still been pretty salty defensively. But they stink offensively, scoring just 18 points against South Carolina and Georgia. That seems to give us two paths to a lower-than-expected score. Either they compete and slow down the Rebels, or they get obliterated, and Ole Miss has to cover the total on their own. 41-10 works, and so does 34-17.

Over 64.5 Colorado at Central Florida

This number jumped some three points during the day Wednesday, and not in our/my favor, so if it's a play you like, I wouldn't wait much longer to place it. The Buffaloes haven't been lighting up scoreboards, but they have enough skill position talent to do so. We know UCF will play fast and exciting offense, averaging 45.7 ppg. But the Knights also allowed 34 points to TCU. I don't believe Colorado gets quite that many, but if they are in the mid to upper 20s, that should be enough to push this game well over the number, so long as the weather is long gone from Florida. I'd be more than happy with a teaser/alt line single game parlay with UCF -6.5 and an over in the upper 50s. Tweak it to get something in the (-130) or better range.

Texas State (-8) at Sam Houston State

Sam Houston sits at 3-1, getting blown out by UCF while beating Rice, Hawaii and New Mexico State. Those schools are a combined 4-8, and while it's a little early to be considering the strength of the schedule, that winning percentage is lower than my picks here. The Bobcats also haven't beaten anyone of record, but showed well against Arizona State and haven't played since then, giving them 16 days to lick their wounds, and they'll be fired up to get that bad taste out of their mouth. They can score in bunches and will do so again behind QB Jordan McCloud.

North Carolina (+2.5) at Duke

Perhaps I'm a glutton for punishment, or perhaps I'm zigging when the conventional wisdom is zagging. Everyone who follows college football either saw or read UNC gave up 53 first-half points and 70 total to JMU. Emotions were high postgame, talks of Mack Brown retiring surfaced, and it seems like this is a program in turmoil. While that's true in the big picture, there isn't much better than going eight miles down the road to face your rival to refocus and reinvigorate. UNC has won the Victory Bell five straight times, scoring at least 38 points in four. QB Jacolby Criswell played well, and they still have all-world RB Omarion Hampton. Duke is 4-0 out of the gate but beat MTSU, UConn, Northwestern and Elon and have scored 26 points in three of those games, needing OT to do that once.

Old Dominion (+9.5) at Bowling Green

I'm in no way expecting the Monarchs to go on the road and win here. But this feels like it's too obvious of a spot for the Falcons, who are coming off a two-week gauntlet at Penn State and at Texas A&M. They showed very competitive in those games, further suggesting a letdown. Surely, they're a bit physically beaten; Old Dominion isn't, as they're fresh off a bye. Make no mistake: ODU isn't a good football team. But with both teams being woeful against the run, I think Old Dominion will find success just enough to keep this competitive and within 10 points. Absolutely don't hate a +10.5 alt line.

Last week: 2-3; season: 8-12.

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Greg's Picks

After a third consecutive 3-2 week, I'm finally back to even, and the disaster that was week one is effectively wiped out. Now, it's time to make a profit. Before we get to this week's picks, a quick look back.

The week started with a nice cover and an outright win on Illinois. This isn't the same Nebraska team of the past 10 years, but it still has some work to do. I picked my second win on West Virginia, which was not in a good position to cover for most of the game, but a pair of very late scores were just enough to get over the number. A couple of losses followed, the first on Mississippi State, which was bad before it lost its starting QB, so I can't imagine how bad it'll be now, and USC, which was never in a position to cover against Michigan. Either Michigan learned something from that Texas beatdown, or the Longhorns are just that much better than most of the teams out there. The final win of the day was on Utah, which was in control most of the way against Oklahoma State, even without the services of Cameron Rising.

Northern Illinois (+6.5) at North Carolina State

I was fairly predictable that Northern Illinois would come out flat against Buffalo this past week, just seven days after probably its biggest win in school history, but to lose that game? That was unexpected. It just goes to show however that when at team isn't focused all week, they can't just flip a switch mid-game and get it back, the intensity starts well before Saturday, but I digress. What we've got here is a team that slipped up this past week and doesn't want to ruin what could be a great season versus a team that doesn't have much going for it and likely won't even make it to a bowl game this year. Yes, N.C. State has faced some stiff competition, but the Wolfpack has also been annihilated in those games.

UConn (-6.5) vs. Buffalo

Now it's Buffalo's turn to play the week after a big road win, let's see how the Bulls handle it. Considering this is a non-conference game against a team that isn't very highly thought of, I have a hard time believing we're going to get the Bulls' best effort in this spot. Even if we do, it probably won't be enough. Buffalo has got nothing going on the offensive side of the ball this year, ranking 127th in the country entering this game. It won the turnover battle this past week, which allowed them to stay in the game at NIU and eventually win, but I don't see that happening two weeks in a row. UConn is not a great team. It might not even be that good, but all the intangibles are lined up this week, including a four-point line movement toward the Huskies, so that's who I'm backing

Michigan (-9.5) vs. Minnesota

The line movement on this game has been interesting. I thought after the results of this past week, the line would move towards Michigan, but it's been just the opposite. It's interesting because the reason the Gophers lost was their run defense, Iowa averaged over six yards per carry and what is it that Michigan likes to do? You guessed it, run the ball. The Wolverines have also been stout against the run this year, which is generally what the Gophers try to do, so I'm trying to figure out how the Gophers are going to keep up in this one. The passing attack for Minnesota has been better than expected this season, but it's not great, and Michigan fared pretty well against a solid USC passing attack this past week. Whatever the reason for the line movement, I'm going to stick with my gut and take Michigan, who in my mind is more than 10 points better than the Gophers.

UNLV (-2) vs. Fresno State

My first instinct here was to follow the line movement and fade UNLV, which just lost its starting QB Matthew Sluka following a hubbub surrounding an alleged promise for NIL money that didn't come through. It would make sense to fade a team that could be in disarray at the moment, but when you dig into the numbers, you see that the Rebels might actually be better with the backup. Sulka's completion percentage on the season was less than 44%. Sorry, less than 44%! That deserves an exclamation point. UNLV ranked 127th in passing yards per game under Sulka, and while he was a threat on the ground, I think the Rebels might take this opportunity to expand their pass game. In addition, I think we're going to see an angry Rebel team, one that was abandoned by the QB, justified or not, I'm sure the remaining players are pissed. Oh, and let's not forget, it's the defense that got them to 3-0, so they're probably not too happy about the departing QB getting all the press.

Texas (-38.5) vs. Mississippi State

I alluded to MSU's struggles earlier, but I don't want to put too much emphasis on the Bulldogs, because the result here has nothing to do with them, this one is all on Texas. However, a quick note on MSU: I already mentioned the Bulldogs are without their starting QB, who was, at least, decent, and now we don't know what we're getting. The defense is the real problem, as they are allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground. Okay, enough about them, the only question here is will Texas continue to throttle inferior competition this week? The Longhorns have two huge games upcoming, against Oklahoma and Georgia, but luckily, they're off next week, so the chances of a look-ahead are slim. Texas is going to open this one up early and pile on late as well as the Bulldogs won't be able to stop the 3rd-stringers from running the ball on them.

Last Week: 3-2-0; Season 10-10-0

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Jeff's Picks

What a difference a week makes! I was just a few points away from completely wiping out last week's horrible result, but I'll take 4-1 all day. My only mistake was missing the under for Arkansas State-Iowa State, and I barely broke a sweat in the remainder. This week presents its own unique set of challenges, as the uncertain path of a hurricane will likely drive up totals as the games in the path will be loaded with Under bets. We'd like to get on the bandwagon as well, but we'd need to do some of our own weather forecasting.. Our first game should be in the direct path of what's left of Helene on Saturday.

Navy -3.5 @ UAB

Navy's efficient ground game is best prepared for the inclement weather, as the triple-option offense will work itself out in bad conditions. UAB's defense suffers from severe vulnerabilities against the run, and I'm amazed that we still have a narrow line like this. I was obviously hunting for Unders, but I decided to take the spread due to Navy's impressive run of high totals. UAB will need to stop Blake Horvath from getting loose, but the elusive quarterback will prove to be a big problem for the home underdogs.

Iowa State -12 @ Houston

These teams are headed in opposite directions. I vastly underestimated the Cyclones' ability to hang such a high number on Arkansas State last week, but Connor Becht and company proved me wrong. Houston was blown out by Cincinnati (one of my best picks last week), and I will go back to the well and pick against them for a second consecutive week. Donovan Smith's play has ranged from mediocre to downright horrible, so Houston's only hope in this game will depend on establishing a run game and containing Becht on defense. Iowa State has been able to shut down the passing lanes against better opponents, so if Smith tries to throw it, he could be in big trouble. The Cyclones rank 21st in Defensive Line Yards Allowed, so that way will be blocked for most of the game. The hurricane will have passed already by game time, but there may be some residual wind and rain to contend with.

Liberty -3 @ Appalachian State

Unless you give the Mountaineers a lot of points, I'm inclined to take the opponent. This is especially true against Liberty, who should dominate in all facets of this game. Much like Navy, this line is a head-scratcher, but I'll happily take the Flames against an App State team that holds horrible defensive numbers and even worse offensive success. With an intent to throw the ball more, Joey Aguilar has withered under pressure due to a sub-par offensive line. They aren't much better on the other side of the ball, and the one-two punch of Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas will run over this defense all day. Kaidon Salter is also enjoying a solid season as Liberty's signal-caller. I'm even willing to tease this line up, if available.

Nebraska -10 @ Purdue

The remnants of Helene should begin to show up around game time, but I think the situation plays even better in Nebraska's favor. I have zero confidence in the Boilermakers. Hudson Card has loads of potential, but a poor supporting cast and a terrible defense have limited his ability to get anything done. Dylan Raiola's offense has been incredibly strong, and although the loss to Illinois was a heartbreaker, it won't stop Nebraska from bouncing back and tearing into Purdue. They may need to adjust their offensive scheme this week. Wind will be a factor and when you consider Purdue allowing over 700 yards rushing over the past two games, the Huskers should just try and pound the rock whenever possible and pass only when necessary.

Over 57.5 James Madison vs. Ball State

I was really tempted to take JMU and lay 20.5 in this game, and I hope I don't regret it. The Dukes and the Tarheels combined for 120 points last week, and while Ball State is arguably a weaker opponent, they have some firepower at quarterback, wide receiver and running back. To deliver this pick, the Cardinals will need to find a way to score against JMU's defense, which is strong on paper. Still, their inability to stop a struggling UNC squad gives me hope that these two offenses put up enough to send us over 58. I do not doubt that JMU's offense will do its part.

Last week: (4-1-0)

Season: (8-12-0)

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