This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Michigan vs. USC
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The Trojans will travel to the Big House to take on the Wolverines in what should be one of the week's marquee matchups. Can Michigan finally ignite their offense and keep up with USC? Or will the Trojans' revitalized defense keep the Wolverines in check? I'll give you all the answers.
Michigan vs. USC Betting Odds for Week 4
Odds: USC -4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Michigan +5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Total: Over 43.5 (ESPN Bet); Under 44.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: USC -192 (DraftKings Sportsbook, Michigan +158 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The spread has fluctuated wildly this week as money started flowing to the Wolverines once the line inflated to 6.5. It's now settled between 5 and 4.5. The total has also spiraled downward, and the under is now less palatable at 44.5.
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Michigan vs. USC Betting Picks for Week 4
The script has flipped for both of these squads in 2024. Michigan is currently floundering in search of an offense, while the revitalized defense is currently the big story for a USC team that hasn't seen much of a dip since the departure of Caleb Williams and a host of other playmakers. The Wolverines are benching Davis Warren and going with Alex Orji at quarterback, a move that doesn't inspire much confidence.
Orji has had little success through the air, which leaves little doubt that they'll lean on the run. That's bad news for the Wolverines, who will face a much-improved defense under D'Anton Lynn. Although numbers are a bit inflated after a beat-down on Utah State, the Trojans rank 17th in Rushing Success Rate Against, a vast improvement considering USC's failure to break the Top 100 in any significant defensive category last season. Lynn will have his team aptly prepared for the one-dimensional offense, and they will force Michigan to beat them through the air. Michigan is still a quality team on defense, but while Miller Moss is no Williams, he's been very effective in getting the ball down the field. Transfer Woody Marks has kept drives humming at running back. I've found a tantalizing player parlay to accompany my pick for this game. With Zachariah Branch handling kickoff and punt duties while also serving as a starting wideout, I'm going to put some cash on a prop that he'll score a touchdown in at least one of those roles. Michigan's lack of offense and USC's new-look defense might make this game an Under candidate, but instead, I'm laying USC instead.
Michigan vs. USC Expert Picks: USC -4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Zachariah Branch Anytime Touchdown +170 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Michigan vs. USC Predictions for Week 4
Michigan's defense can be tough against the run, so I think Moss and the passing game will fare better than Marks on the ground. LSU's defense was largely ineffective in containing the Trojans, and Michigan struggled to keep Texas in check. While LSU and Texas don't compare on either side in this scenario, Texas and USC share similar strengths on offense, and the Wolverines will simply give USC too many opportunities via a multitude of three-and-outs. They'll be able to make some stops, but not enough to keep USC off the scoreboard.
USC over Michigan 24-10
