College Football Picks: Picking Games Week 6

A week ago, I wondered what was going on the Pac-12. This week, I'm left wondering what sport I'm watching each Saturday.

Twenty years ago there was predictability to college football. Sure, there were upsets, but for the most part, distinctions such as "good teams" and "bad teams" actually meant something. That's no longer the case.

Upsets have become the norm in college football. So much so, that when a team like Ohio State struggles at Indiana, no one bats an eye. And remember a week ago when Alabama was done? One week after a disappointing performance at home, the Tide looked like world-beaters against Georgia. The team that made Alabama look bad two weeks ago? That was Mississippi, and how exactly did the Rebels fair last week? Right, they were embarrassed at Florida. But then again maybe Florida is the best team in the country? Na.

All of this mayhem makes me wonder why anyone even bothers to project a final four at this stage of the season. Oh, right, people eat that stuff up. Well, I guess it gives us something to talk about.

Speaking of something to talk about ... another off week for this guy, at least on the whole anyway. The top-2 categories were fine, but the bottom category was not so great. Then again, the bottom category is labeled "PASSing Thoughts" for a reason.

As always, I'll tweet any insights I come up with post-article each week. You can follow me at @gregvara.

CREAM OF THE CROP (Week: 2-2; Season: 8-7)

Saturday

Minnesota at Purdue: As long as Minnesota trots out high school level QBs, I'll continue to take the under. Minnesota failed to score last week at Northwestern, and while the Wildcats actually have a defense, there's no excuse for failing to score. I'm sure the Gophers will bring a much better effort on offense this week, but it's not like they are going to put up 35 points. As for the defense, that's not in question.

Total: Under 45.5

Maryland at Ohio State: For all the grief the Buckeyes have received since the season started, the fact remains, that with no losses on their schedule, their title dreams are still alive. That's motivation enough to get their act together, but perhaps more motivating are the number of critics coming out of the woodwork. It looks like OSU figured some things out late last week against Indiana, and I expect that trend to continue through this week against a hapless Maryland team.

Side: OSU -32.5

California at Utah: With the carnage that has taken place in the Pac-12 this season, an undefeated team is bound to get noticed. California has managed to steer clear of the landmines, but it hasn't really been challenged. Utah, the other undefeated Pac-12 team, has been challenged ... twice. And both times, the Utes passed with flying colors. Had this game been played the week following the huge road win over Oregon, I might be worried about a letdown, but Utah's had two weeks to celebrate and now it's back to business.

Side: Utah -7

Iowa State at Texas Tech: There was a lot of talk about the total in the Baylor-Texas Tech game last week, and though the Red Raiders' defense was challenged by every media outlet in the country, they couldn't get up for the task. That was against Baylor, though, and it was just a week after facing TCU. Iowa State is going to be a nice break for the Red Raiders, and as such, they might just look like a real defense this week. The offense will get its points, but the total is set a little too high for a game involving Iowa State.

Total: Under 73.5

BEST OF THE REST (Week: 2-2; Season: 4-9)

Thursday

SMU at Houston: SMU has surrendered 48 or more points in four of its five games this season, and while two of those games came against powerhouses Baylor and TCU, one was against James Madison. Yes, JMU has a football team and it put up 48 points on the SMU defense. Houston has a legitimate offense and will score least 50 Thursday night. The only question is, will SMU's offense help in the effort to get this number over the total?

Total: Over 72

Saturday

Oklahoma State at West Virginia: A couple good offenses here in OSU at WVU and while the teams aren't scoring at the pace of years past, they still can put up solid numbers. As has been the case in the past several years, neither team plays much defense. This game should go back and forth, which is always good for the over.

Total: Over 59.5

Arkansas at Alabama: The Razorbacks may have saved their season last week with a win at Tennessee, but they're about to lose it again this week when they face a resurgent Alabama. The Tide realized what was at stake last week and they played like a desperate team. Although the desperation may not be there this week, they much realize that one more loss will damn their title hopes.

Side: Alabama -16

PASSing THOUGHTS (Week: 0-3; Season: 3-7)

Friday

North Carolina State at Virginia Tech: Not a scientific-based pick here, just a feeling that Virginia Tech has to play better than it did last week. That, and Virginia Tech usually plays well at home in weeknight games.

Side: Virginia Tech -2

Saturday

Georgia at Tennessee: The Jekyl and Hide of college football welcomes the perennial big-game letdown squad in this matchup of what could has-beens. Tennessee might be the best first-half team in the country, but the Vols are definitely the worst second-half team in the country. Meanwhile, Georgia just lost another big game, which is nothing new. The key here will be which team can rebound better. My money is on Georgia, which is used to bouncing back.

Side: Georgia -3

Northwestern at Michigan: The total in this game is 34.5, and with good reason. Both teams bring stellar defenses into this matchup and neither has quite established itself on offense. That said, I can't go under a total this low, but I can take more than a TD in what should be a game low-scoring affair.

Side: Northwestern +7.5