College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 5

CHRIS' PICKS

Picking winners is proving increasingly difficult as the season progresses. I haven't found that line that immediately jumps out, and my record is living on the perfect Week 2 I had rather than steadily building success. All I can do is cross my fingers this Saturday while reminding myself that I'm still doing better than last season!

Minnesota –13 vs. Maryland

The line opened at 10.5, so there's a clear public sentiment on the Gophers, which has me nervous to say the least. But Maryland is down to third-string quarterback Max Bortenschlager, who struggled mightily to move the ball last week against UCF, producing only seven points while being picked off twice and sacked five times. Sure, he'll have a full week of practice and the Terps won't be deflated after seeing their previous starter go down with a shredded knee, but it's hard to find a path for Maryland to score much. The Terps allowed 250 yards on the ground last week, which will aid the Gophers, while Minnesota boasts the top-ranked rush defense, allowing 59.0 yards per game and 2.81 yards per carry. It's a tall task to ask Bortenschlager to keep this close.

Navy –7.5 at Tulsa

We all know what Navy does offensively; run the ball, twice surpassing 400 yards with five touchdowns in three games. And Tulsa brings the nation's fourth-worst run defense to the table, allowing 6.93 yards per attempt and holding just one of their first four opponents to less than 287 yards. The Golden Hurricanes can run as well, but Navy's 15th-ranked rush defense that allows 96.3 yards per game and 3.01 yards per carry give me hope it can slow enough to stretch the lead.

South Florida –23.5 at East Carolina

The Pirates broke their losing streak last week, and sent me to a losing week as a result. And Thomas Sirk looks to have injected some life into the offense. But the defense remains embarrassingly bad, allowing 596 yards and needing a missed field goal to keep it from blowing a 20-point lead. Amazingly, the 596 yards allowed was a season-low for the Pirates. Yes, you read that correctly. So long as they are less than four-touchdown underdogs, I'm comfortable picking against them until they prove otherwise. South Florida hasn't looked fully right on offense, particularly in the passing attack, but it's averaging 40.8 points while allowing 17.3. Those averages alone suggest USF at worst be right around this number.

Over 60.5 North Carolina at Georgia Tech

The over is 6-1 in the last seven games between these two, with an average total of 73 and only a 2013 game in Atlanta (48) and a 2010 tilt in Chapel Hill (54) going under this posted number. Simply put, these two traditionally play wild, high-scoring affairs despite the Jackets' offense that keeps the clock churning. UNC gives up 176.5 yards per game on the ground, and that number figures to sky-rocket given how banged up their defense is. I worry they can score enough to aid in this going over, and I had a slight lean toward Georgia Tech at –9.5, but at 1-3, it appears to be gut-check time for North Carolina, and I'm looking for it to match the Jackets offensively for a bit, producing plenty of points in the process.

SMU -19 vs. Connecticut

The Huskies let me down last week, so I'm going to allow them the opportunity to get beaten handily on the road and provide some self-redemption. The Mustangs' offense is clicking, ranking fifth nationally in scoring at 48 points per game with a season-low 36 against a solid TCU defense. UConn ranks last in pass defense, allowing 413 yards per game, and has been shredded the last two weeks against what we thought were limited offenses in Virginia and East Carolina, both of which threw for more than 450 yards and three scores. The Mustangs counter with the 24th-ranked passing offense, averaging 305.3 yards, but they're equally diverse, rushing for 11 touchdowns through four games. This game shouldn't be close.

Last week: 3-4; Season: 13-10-1

GREG'S PICKS

It would certainly be nice to have a huge week sometime soon, but if the season ended and I went 3-2 every week, I would certainly take it. Last week was much like the week prior in that most of the games were an easy win or an easy loss. The only close one, on paper at least, was Kentucky vs. Florida, but Kentucky was covering most of the way and Florida never had the ball with a chance to cover in the fourth quarter. 



USC -5 at Washington State




Four weeks into the season and it appears as though the Trojans are determined to play to the level of their competition. What that means during most weeks is that they probably won't cover a lot of big spreads, but that also means that they can be trusted in a spot like this. The Cougars have been basically the same team for some time now and early results indicate they will again score a lot of points this season. But the competition has been weak, and we have no way of knowing how they will hold up against a good USC team. My guess is they'll have trouble putting up the huge numbers and won't be able to keep pace with the Trojans.


Kansas State -15 vs. Baylor




For a minute last week, the Baylor Bears looked like the Bears of old as they had Oklahoma in a tough spot in the second half, but that one got away from them, much like every other game they've played this season. It's a terrible scenario for the Bears as they gave everything they had last week, but it still wasn't good enough. That they stayed in the game so long, surely caught the attention of their next opponent, the Wildcats, who will not take them lightly now. KSU is coming of an ugly loss to Vanderbilt and the Cats have been stewing about that loss for two weeks. Kansas State will come out prepared, and this one gets away from Baylor in the 2nd half.


 

Maryland +13 at Minnesota

Three games into the 2017 season and we know the Gophers are 3-0, but we still have no idea how good they are. The reason is they've faced maybe the worst non-conference schedule in the nation. Oregon State is the only team of note on the resume and the Beavers have proven to be terrible this season. Maryland, on the other hand, picked up an impressive win at Texas, which has rebounded since that loss, only making the Terps' win more impressive. The issue with the Terps is they are now on their third QB of the season, but this isn't like the NFL where the QB is often bigger than the team. In college ball, the system is usually what drives the offense, and as long as Maryland has a competent replacement, it should stay within this rather large number.

Washington -26.5 at Oregon State




The aforementioned Beavers are back at it this week and have an another impossible task in front of them. This time it's in the form of the Washington Huskies, who are coming off of their most complete effort of the season last week at Colorado. The Huskies were a little sluggish in their opening win at Rutgers, but since that game, they have not fooled around with anyone, putting away lesser teams with ease. The Beavers are a lesser team for certain, and the Huskies continue their roll.

Vanderbilt +9 at Florida

Vanderblit was Terrible last week, yes, capital T terrible. The Commodores did, however, play the best team in the nation, so I, for one, will give them a pass. They simply weren't ready for that stage, but fortunately they don't have to worry about being on the big stage this week. The Gators somehow pulled one out last week at Kentucky, but the Gators did not impress. To be honest, they haven't impressed yet this season. Expect the Commodores to get back to playing strong defense and keep this one within the number.

Last Week: 3-2; Season: 12-9