DraftKings College Football: Week 8 Main Slate

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Updated on October 18, 2019 2:08PM EST

Welcome to the Week 8 installment of the DraftKings Main Slate breakdown. We've got an 11-gamer with nine of the 22 teams projected to score over 30 points. Blue bloods like Oklahoma, Clemson, and LSU are all on the menu here, along with some other interesting teams from the Big 12 and ACC. Let's jump into the meat of the article here, where you'll find cheat sheets, some general slate analysis, our DFS tools and my position-by-position breakdown.

Cheat Sheet

Team	Opponent	H/A	O/U	Spread	Implied Points	Plays Per Game	Opp. Pass Yds Allowed/ GM	Opp.Pass TD Allowed/GM
Oklahoma	West Virginia	H	63	-33.5	48.25	65.00	207.7	1.8
Clemson	Louisville	A	60.5	-23.5	42	72.33	264.8	2.5
LSU	Mississippi State	A	61	-18.5	39.75	70.00	230.7	1.2
Missouri	Vanderbilt	A	56.5	-21.0	38.75	76.83	272.3	2.5
Auburn	Arkansas	A	55.5	-19.0	37.25	71.50	224.5	1.8
Oklahoma State	Baylor	H	68	-3.5	35.75	78.50	226.7	0.7
Baylor	Oklahoma State	A	68	3.5	32.25	68.17	249.8	2.3
California	Oregon State	H	51.5	-11.0	31.25	66.83	245.3	2.5
Iowa State	Texas Tech	A	55.5	-7.0	31.25	69.00	247.7	1.2
North Carolina State	Boston College	A	51.5	-3.5	27.5	77.00	284.3	2.2
Oregon	Washington	A	50.5	-3.0	26.75	70.50	216.9	0.9
Florida	South Carolina	A	48	-5.0	26.5	67.57	259	1.8
Texas Tech	Iowa State	H	55.5	7.0	24.25	80.00	220.2	1.5
Boston College	North Carolina State	H	51.5	3.5	24	78.17	257.8	1.2
Washington	Oregon	H	50.5	3.0	23.75	66.71	160.2	0.5
South

Cheat Sheet

Team	Opponent	H/A	O/U	Spread	Implied Points	Plays Per Game	Opp. Pass Yds Allowed/ GM	Opp.Pass TD Allowed/GM
Oklahoma	West Virginia	H	63	-33.5	48.25	65.00	207.7	1.8
Clemson	Louisville	A	60.5	-23.5	42	72.33	264.8	2.5
LSU	Mississippi State	A	61	-18.5	39.75	70.00	230.7	1.2
Missouri	Vanderbilt	A	56.5	-21.0	38.75	76.83	272.3	2.5
Auburn	Arkansas	A	55.5	-19.0	37.25	71.50	224.5	1.8
Oklahoma State	Baylor	H	68	-3.5	35.75	78.50	226.7	0.7
Baylor	Oklahoma State	A	68	3.5	32.25	68.17	249.8	2.3
California	Oregon State	H	51.5	-11.0	31.25	66.83	245.3	2.5
Iowa State	Texas Tech	A	55.5	-7.0	31.25	69.00	247.7	1.2
North Carolina State	Boston College	A	51.5	-3.5	27.5	77.00	284.3	2.2
Oregon	Washington	A	50.5	-3.0	26.75	70.50	216.9	0.9
Florida	South Carolina	A	48	-5.0	26.5	67.57	259	1.8
Texas Tech	Iowa State	H	55.5	7.0	24.25	80.00	220.2	1.5
Boston College	North Carolina State	H	51.5	3.5	24	78.17	257.8	1.2
Washington	Oregon	H	50.5	3.0	23.75	66.71	160.2	0.5
South Carolina	Florida	H	48	5.0	21.5	70.33	199	1.0
Mississippi State	LSU	H	61	18.5	21.25	64.50	224.2	1.8
Oregon State	California	A	51.5	11.0	20.25	69.33	214.5	0.5
Louisville	Clemson	H	60.5	23.5	18.5	70.50	150.3	0.8
Arkansas	Auburn	H	55.5	19.0	18.25	70.50	235.3	1.5
Vanderbilt	Missouri	H	56.5	21.0	17.75	66.67	154.7	0.8
West Virginia	Oklahoma	A	63	33.5	14.75	66.67	199.8	1.5

Team	Opponent	H/A	O/U	Spread	Implied Points	Opp. Rush Yds/G	Opp. YPC Allowed	Opp. Rush TD Allowed/G	Offensive S&P+	Opponent Defense S&P+
Oklahoma	West Virginia	A	63	-33.5	48.25	174.83	4.08	1.8	1	65
Clemson	Louisville	A	60.5	-23.5	42	169.83	4.25	1.8	19	91
LSU	Mississippi State	A	61	-18.5	39.75	163.33	4.52	2.2	2	42
Missouri	Vanderbilt	A	56.5	-21.0	38.75	210.33	5.68	2.0	32	99
Auburn	Arkansas	A	55.5	-19.0	37.25	175.33	4.57	1.5	35	58
Oklahoma State	Baylor	H	68	-3.5	35.75	113.5	3.18	1.3	8	23
Baylor	Oklahoma State	A	68	3.5	32.25	165.17	4.01	1.0	22	49
California	Oregon State	H	51.5	-11.0	31.25	205.67	4.82	1.8	103	108
Iowa State	Texas Tech	A	55.5	-7.0	31.25	185.17	4.29	2.3	31	45
North Carolina State	Boston College	A	51.5	-3.5	27.5	191.83	4.51	1.2	88	100
Oregon	Washington	A	50.5	-3.0	26.75	146.71	4.21	1.4	49	32
Florida	South Carolina	A	48	-5.0	26.5	144.67	3.84	0.5	24	15
Texas Tech	Iowa State	H	55.5	7.0	24.25	101.5	2.97	0.5	38	17
Boston College	North Carolina State	H	51.5	3.5	24	66.67	2.29	1.0	30	34
Washington	Oregon	H	50.5	3.0	23.75	107.5	3.12	0.2	17	1
South Carolina	Florida	H	48	5.0	21.5	110.86	3.56	0.7	74	16
Mississippi State	LSU	H	61	18.5	21.25	91.83	2.83	0.5	43	36
Oregon State	California	A	51.5	11.0	20.25	158	4.07	1.3	21	21
Louisville	Clemson	H	60.5	23.5	18.5	104.5	2.96	0.7	20	31
Arkansas	Auburn	A	55.5	19.0	18.25	101.33	3.25	0.7	89	13
Vanderbilt	Missouri	H	56.5	21.0	17.75	108	3.15	1.0	76	12
West Virginia	Oklahoma	A	63	33.5	14.75	140.5	4.03	1.0	55	30

DFS Tools

Games To Target

Missouri at Vanderbilt

As you'll see below, Missouri has a great setup here going up against a Vanderbilt defense that just got shredded by checks notes UNLV.

Baylor at Oklahoma State

This is the only game on the slate with both sides expected to score over 30 points. Even with a strong Baylor defense, there's too much talent on the Oklahoma State offense to be shut down. And Baylor has some interesting options as well, as you'll see below.

Food for Thought

This isn't a tacit endorsement of fully fading Oklahoma this week. It's merely a word of caution. Oklahoma returns home after a big, emotional win over Texas in Week 7. I'm not saying that West Virginia's defense will hold Oklahoma under 30 points or anything, but I have my doubts that we'll be seeing the optimal Oklahoma offense for a full 60 minutes. Guys like CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Hurts can certainly hit their benchmarks before Oklahoma calls off the dogs, but I see a performance more similar to what we saw from the OU offense in Week 6 against Kansas. If that's the case, Oklahoma can still hit a high number without needing its stars to do all the damage.

Position by Position Breakdown

Quarterback

I'm going to leave Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow off this week. Not because I'm advising not using them, it's just that there isn't much to say about them that hasn't already been said. You know what you're getting from those guys. I know what I'm getting from those guys. Let's just shake on it and move to the rest of the quarterbacks.

Charlie Brewer, Baylor ($7,900) at Oklahoma State

This game has one of the highest over/unders on the board at 68, and both teams are projected to score over 30 points, so there's less risk of a blowout capping Brewer's playing time. That's not to say Gerry Bohanon isn't a threat to see snaps at some point, but it's not enough to fade off of Brewer.

Brewer is at the helm of the No.8 rated S&P+ offense and might be the team's best rushing threat as well. He has at least 12 rushing attempts in three of his last four outings and has rushed for at least 50 yards and a touchdown in two of them. This Oklahoma State defense is mediocre at best (50th in S&P+) and the way Brewer has played this season is enough for me to go after him in several lineups Saturday.

Kelly Bryant, Missouri ($6,900) at Vanderbilt

The main attraction here is the opponent. Vanderbilt's program has reached depths that I didn't know were possible for an SEC team coming off a bowl season. Getting housed by UNLV last week was rock bottom, though. At least -- I think it is.

Missouri, on the other hand, is on a five-game winning streak and has close to a top-30 offense by S&P+. Bryant has posted over 20 DK points in three straight games and is coming off his first 300-yard outing against an SEC opponent. And that's important to note here, as Bryant's production this season has mostly come through the air. We know he can run -- he ran for 130 yards and two scores in four games last season at Clemson and posted 665 rushing yards and 11 scores in his full season as its starters. Bryant just hasn't run much this year, and that likely explains his relatively cheap price. If he can add that back to his arsenal even a little bit this week, it'll be a bonus to what projects to be a strong passing stat line against a Vandy defense that gives up the second-most passing yards per game on the slate (272.3).

Others to Consider

Trevor Lawrence ($7,200) Clemson Clemson at Louisville

Lawrence still has just two games with more than 250 yards passing through six outings. Louisville, which allows 264 passing yards per game on average, should help Lawrence pass that threshold and then some on Saturday. The price is reasonable for Lawrence as well, and his ownership could still be relatively low in large field tournaments.

Running Back

Larry Rountree III, Missouri ($6,700) at Vanderbilt

There are some legitimate arguments for Kelly Bryant not hitting his ceiling Saturday by not running enough. Rountree would be the main reason why, and I get it. The 210-pound junior is fourth in the SEC in carries per game (17.17), fifth in the SEC in yards per game (92.8) and first in the SEC in rushing touchdowns (7).

And yet he checks in with the sixth-highest price tag at his position. If he has an "average" game here, it's still nearly 20 DraftKings. But we're not chasing average, and we're not expecting it here, either. Rountree gets to face a Vandy defense that allows a jaw-dropping 5.68 yards per carry. That's worse than Georgia State and way worse than Rutgers. Connecticut allows just 0.4 more per carry. I will be leaning on Rountree in most of, if not all, my lineups.

Auburn Running Backs

JaTarvious Whitlow being out leaves nearly 19 carries up for grabs, and because Auburn was off last week, we're still in the dark as to how those touches will be divvied up. I'll lay out the case for a few Auburn backs here, as at least one of these Tigers should have success against Arkansas' weak defense.

In Kam Martin ($4,600) you get a likely starter with a lengthy track record of capable production. In 255 career carries, Martin has 1,405 yards (5.5 YPC) and eight rushing touchdowns. If nothing else, he's a safe bet to get carries and outperform his surprisingly low price tag.

Shaun Shivers ($3,900) is interesting, too. He's undersized (5-foot-7, 179) so the volume might be capped, leaving us to rely on some home-run hitting ability. Shivers has the ability to rip off chunk plays, though. 12 of his 70 carries in 2018 went for 10-or-more yards. Four of his 27 carries have gone 10-or-more this season, and two of them have gone for more than 20. If he sees the expected workload increase, Shivers projects to post a nice return on his $3,900 tag. There are worse punt plays. Speaking of...

D.J. Williams is a freshman who is billed for more work with Whitlow is sidelined. Would it interest you if I told you he was one of Auburn's top recruits in the 2019 cycle? Would it interest you that he's minimum priced? Would it interest you that "there is a feeling around the program that the former four-star recruit could be the closest thing Auburn has to a true every-down back outside of Whitlow? " That quote comes from Josh Vitale of the Montgomery Advertiser, who wrote a great breakdown of what to expect for the Whitlow-less backfield rotation. The fact that the other backs Williams is competing with all have niche skill sets compared to what the freshman can do as a complete back is enough to catch my attention. This could easily bust, but if you need a min-priced punt to complete a lineup you want, Williams is worth a look.

Jordan Houston, North Carolina State at Boston College

Zonovan Knight ($5,100) is worth a look here too but I'll gravitate towards Houston. The workload is similar -- Knight commanded 15 carries against Syracuse in Week 7 compared to Houston's 13. There's plenty to like about both backs -- each of them average over 5.0 yards per carry and should be heavily featured as NC State looks to protect its inexperienced quarterback, Bailey Hockman. Houston is slightly more explosive than Knight, however, averaging 6.2 YPC -- over a full yard more than Knight's 5.13.

The matchup is great for Houston here, too. Boston College is inexplicably awful against the run this year, something we haven't seen from an Eagle defense under Steve Addazio. The Eagles give up 191.83 rushing yards per game on 4.51 YPC. Even Kansas ran all over them. A run heavy approach from North Carolina State against this defense should pay off for Houston and Knight.

Breece Hall, Iowa State ($5,600) vs. Texas Tech

I don't care how chalky this play is, Hall is someone you should have exposure to in most of your lineups. Hall enjoyed his breakout game in Week 7 against West Virginia, taking 26 carries for 132 yards and three touchdowns while no other Iowa State running back had more than four carries. If this is the start of a new trend and Hall is truly the heir apparent to David Montgomery, then he should crush his price tag Saturday even if he falls well short of last week's total. Texas Tech has one of the worst run defenses on the slate, too, allowing 185.17 yards per game on the ground. Hall won't stay under $6K for long.

Others to Consider

Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400) and Trey Sermon ($5,600), Oklahoma vs. West Virginia

I doubt Oklahoma wants to run Jalen Hurts 17 times against a team that it's favored to beat by nearly five touchdowns. The backs should get some work this week.

Christopher Brown Jr., California ($5,900) vs. Oregon State

I'm not a fan of the price or Brown's production (3.3 YPC vs. FBS opponents) but he gets plenty of opportunity (14 rushes per game vs. FBS opponents) and Oregon State lets up 205 rushing yards per game.

Wide Receiver

Denzel Mims, Baylor ($6,700) at Oklahoma State

Mims' price dipped under $7K after a bit of a dud against Texas Tech, and I see this as a buying opportunity. He owns a 29.2 percent target share in the offense and averages 9.0 YPT. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has the worst pass defense in the Big 12 against conference opponents, allowing 361 yards per game through the air. That's inflated a bit by the big Jalen Hurts game a few weeks back, but it's still worth mentioning. Mims is a strong play as a one-off for this Baylor offense and is worth even more consideration if you're rostering Brewer.

Jaylon Redd ($5,300) and Mycah Pittman ($4,200) Oregon at Washington

Redd is the more established of the two, and that's reflected in the pricing, but both are worth a look in an Oregon offense that might be undervalued this weekend. Redd is coming off his best outing of the year against Colorado, catching four of five targets for 75 yards while adding a three-yard touchdown run. He's seeing six targets per game on average and catching 72 percent of those looks. With Jacob Breeland (knee) gone for the year, there's more targets to spread around the offense.

Pittman is the highly touted freshman who is quickly establishing himself in the offense after missing the first month of the season with a shoulder injury. He's fourth on the team in target share since debuting in Week 5, and that's including the now-injured Breeland. Pittman is killing it with the targets he's getting, too. He has caught all seven of his targets for 100 yards thus far.

I don't love this angle, but you can get an idea of what I mean when I say he's got natural downfield ability.

Mycah Pittman is really good at this catching thing #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/qYsHeL8Qq8
— NBC Sports Northwest (@NBCSNorthwest) October 12, 2019

In terms of the matchup, Washington's secondary isn't as scary as it's been in recent years. It's still good, allowing just 216 passing yards per game, but it's not the lockdown group that would've scared me off of using Oregon in this matchup in years past.

Justyn Ross ($5,800) Clemson at Louisville

Somehow Ross' salary went down after his best game of the season last week against Florida State. Is this a trap? Is rostering Ross going to blow up in our faces?

I say no. Ross has a 25 percent target share and has seen no less than 20 percent of the targets in any game this season. His YPT is just 6.2, so there's some definite room for positive regression here. Toss in the fact that Tee Higgins might be less than 100 percent and Ross becomes a definite consideration in the sub-$6K range.

Others to Consider

When it comes to the Missouri guys, I obviously love the matchup but I have some concerns that make them tournament-only plays in my mind. The targets get spread around to a wide array of players, with five players seeing at least 10 percent of the market share in the last three games, with only one player (Johnathan Johnson) has seen over 20 percent of the looks in that span. He's affordable at $5,700 given that volume and near 66 percent catch rate-- there's just not a lot of explosion or touchdown upside in his game (7.2 YPT, 0 touchdowns on 38 targets).

Moving down the list, we have Jonathan Nance ($5,400) and Jalen Knox ($4,900). They are more explosive than Johnson, with both averaging over 9.0 YPT. Nance has the higher price tag thanks to his three touchdowns, but Knox's explosiveness being roughly the same as Nance's suggests that Knox has some touchdown upside in his own right. And he's $500 cheaper.

All three of these guys carry their pros and cons. What makes it difficult to choose is how clustered the pricing is with them in addition to Albert Okwuegbunam ($5,400) being a factor as well. Picking the right guy from this group should pay off nicely, but I try to spread my shares around the group rather than having too much exposure to one of them over multiple lineups.