This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Kentucky vs. Florida Best Bets
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The SEC provides us with one of the most fun matchups of the day early with a 12 PM ET kick between Kentucky and Florida. Both these teams have a new look from last year, as both starting quarterbacks left for the NFL and were replaced with transfers. The Gators fill the void left by Anthony Richardson with the addition of Graham Mertz from Wisconsin; the Wildcats fill the void left by Will Levis with Devin Leary from NC State. While new quarterbacks may make all the headlines for these two teams, the defenses have been the story so far this season, as Florida is allowing just 13.5 points per game while Kentucky is allowing just 15.5.
Kentucky vs. Florida Betting Odds for Week 5
Spread: Florida +1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Kentucky -1 (Points Bet)
Moneyline: Florida -100 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Kentucky -114 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Over/Under: Over 43.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Under 44.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Kentucky vs. Florida Betting Picks for Week 5
With the spread sitting at around one point either way, it's likely a good idea to scrap spread play and go with the moneyline, as you will be playing with no juice on the Florida side versus the same amount of juice without having to give points on the Kentucky side. There is a lot of leeway here with the over/under, as you can get a point either way, depending on the book that you decide to use. This gives bettors lots of options to take on whichever side they favor.
Kentucky vs. Florida Expert Pick: Under 44.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Being able to get this point total still as high as 44.5 is crucial as it had opened at 47.5 on most major books. These two teams have both been playing some good football lately, as Kentucky has strung together a couple of good wins after struggling in the first half with a couple of very inferior opponents. Florida had a huge win two weeks ago against a top-25 Tennessee team and followed it up with an easy win against Charlotte. Both these teams play a similar game where they like to establish the run to open up the pass while leaning on their defense. I think in a game between two teams that use the running game to open up the pass, going up against two defenses that are allowing less than 90 yards per game on the ground the under is likely the best option.
Kentucky vs. Florida Predictions for Week 5
As mentioned earlier, both teams here are very similar. They both play the run very well on defense, and their offenses are led by very good running backs and transfer quarterbacks on the upswing. For Florida, Mertz has thrown for 951 yards with four touchdowns and one interception, with Trevor Etienne rushing for 329 yards with two touchdowns on 49 carries. For Kentucky, Leary has thrown for 1,060 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions, with Ray Davis rushing for 310 yards and five touchdowns on 50 carries. The key will likely come down to which team can avoid turnovers, as field position and points will likely be hard to come by. Both teams have had their struggles with turnovers, as Leary has thrown an interception in every game so far this season, including two last week against Vanderbilt, while Florida already has three lost fumbles on the season but just one interception from Mertz. I give a slight edge to the home team here, even though Florida has done a better job of taking care of the football. It is hard to do everything right in a hostile road environment, and that is likely what this game will come down to. I think the safest bet here is the under, as both these teams are anchored by a very good defense and have had some offensive struggles at times this season.
