Tulane vs. UCF Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 11

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Published on November 11, 2022

Tulane vs. UCF Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 11

Do I appreciate a battle between Alabama and LSU? Of course I do, but as an avid college football consumer, I can't help but enjoy digging a little further. I'm always following the non-"Power" conferences, and when there is a chance for somebody new to spring up and make some noise I love it. Well, the winner of the game I'm covering is going to be the frontrunner to represent the Group of Five in a New Year's Bowl. And if it's Tulane? Well, that'd be awesome. That won't impact my assessment of this matchup, though, because bets are on the line.

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Tulane vs. UCF Odds for Week 11

Spread: Tulane -1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Total: 54.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Moneyline: Tulane -126, UCF +105 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Wow, this is a razor-thin margin. Tulane is at home, but it is not even favored by three points, the generally-accepted number for home-field advantage. This is with some questions about who is going to start at quarterback for UCF. Let's get to that.

Tulane vs. UCF Betting Picks This Week

This AAC battle is also a battle of teams in the top 25 in the CFP rankings. The Green Wave is ranked 17th, while the Golden Knights are ranked 22nd. That's quite close! Tulane is 8-1 with a win over Kansas State. On the other hand, the Green Wave lost at home to Southern Miss, though it was a 27-24 game. The Golden Knights are 7-2 with a big win over Cincinnati. They lost to Louisville, which is understandable, but they were smashed by East Carolina, which is puzzling.

There may be some "proven commodity" in this line. UCF were darlings a few years ago under Scott Frost, and now Gus Malzahn is its head coach. Casual fans, and casual bettors, may not have thought much about Tulane until recently. That being said, there is some validity to this line in the numbers as well. UCF ranks 28th in SP+, while Tulane ranks 42nd. The big question is Golden Knights QB John Rhys Plumlee. He's a true dual threat, but he didn't play last week. Plumlee did make the trip to Memphis and warmed up, though. I think there is a good chance he plays, though that is also speculative to a degree.

This game is a toss-up, and I am looking forward to watching it. Not sure of who will win, I look at that point total. Both of these teams rank in the top 30 in defensive SP+, and both rank outside the top 40 in offensive SP+. What I feel most confident in is that this game will finish under that total, and this also bakes in the off chance Plumlee doesn't play, though Mikey Keene is no slouch as a backup.

Tulane vs. UCF Best Bet: Under 54.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

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Tulane vs. UCF Prediction

I am going to assume Plumlee plays, bringing his 11 touchdowns through the air and his seven touchdowns on the ground, though also his three lost fumbles and six picks. That's tricky with Tulane's defense, and turnovers could decide this one. I'd love Tulane to win, because it would be really cool if it wins out and gets a chance to play in a big bowl game. However, if Plumlee plays I think the Golden Knights win. If he doesn't, I think the Green Wave gets the big victory. Either way, though, I think this is a close game that will be decided by probably a field goal margin one way or the other, with neither team hitting 30 points.

College football bettors can get the most out of their CFB betting experience here at RotoWire where we have everything from the latest college football odds to updated Heisman odds and college football futures. Our team of handicappers break down their college football best bets each week and the College Cappers have their CFB Week 11 picks ready to go.