EuroLeague Primer: Round 25 - Friday

EuroLeague Primer: Round 25 - Friday

This article is part of our EuroLeague Primer series.

PREGAME UPDATES

STATS AND INFO.

THE SLATE

ALBA Berlin at CSKA Moscow

Status Check: Marcus Eriksson (BER), Tornike Shengelia (CSK), Johannes Voigtmann (CSK), Joel Bolomboy (CSK), Allerik Freeman (CSK), Alexander Khomenko (CSK)

Best Bets for Success: The day gets underway with a rematch of a Round 16 matchup between these two teams in which they both hit the 90-point mark and CSKA won by three. Both teams will look a little different this time around, as four players -- including Luke Sikma -- who played at least 11 minutes in Round 24 were unavailable for the first meeting. Meanwhile, three CSKA players who saw at least 18 minutes of action in that game will not suit up Friday. While the personnel changes lean in ALBA's favor, the home team is a double-digit favorite, as they have enough talent to negate the absences. The safest play among the bunch is Will Clyburn, who has sandwiched four appearances with at least 26.3 DraftKings points -- one of those came against this same ALBA team -- around a three-game absence. Nikola Milutinov looks like a pretty good option as well, as he will be the only established big man available for the Russian team. The 30 minutes and 2.5 blocks Milutinov averaged over the last two Rounds make it clear he is back at full speed. Sikma and Maodo Lo both land here for the visiting team, with both now topping the 20-point mark on DraftKings in seven straight outings. Lo has the better matchup on paper, but CSKA may not be as stout against forwards as they usually are without three of their top four players at that position, so both players will be pretty appealing, particularly with Lo putting up a career-high 26 points and a season-high 44.8 fantasy points when these teams last met.

DFS Darlings: The oddsmakers are expecting plenty of scoring again, as the over/under on this game barely trails the total in the next game for the highest on the board. That bodes well for value plays, and we'll start with Marius Grigonis, even with his DraftKings rate jumping $1,000. Grigonis is again resembling the player who hit the 20-point mark on DraftKings 21 times last season with Zalgiris, and even at $8,000 he returned well over 3x value in three of his last four appearances. Semen Antonov could be worth a dart throw at $4,200, and a case could be made for a $3,100 Vladimir Ivlev, who has barely played but could do just enough to return 3x value. CSKA ranks bottom-4 against centers in all of the points, rebounds, assists, blocks and field goal percentage categories, which brings Ben Lammers and Johannes Thiemann into play. If Eriksson remains sidelined, Jaleen Smith could get the job done at $6,500, particularly with CSKA ranking bottom-3 against guards in points, threes and field goal attempts per game.

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne at Anadolu Efes Istanbul

Status Check: Elie Okobo (ASV), David Lighty (ASV), William Howard (ASV), Raymar Morgan (ASV), Antoine Diot (ASV), Victor Wembanyama (ASV), James Anderson (EFS), Dogus Balbay (EFS)

Best Bets for Success: As hinted at above, the over/under on this game is the highest on the board, and like the first contest, it also includes a pretty wide spread, with Efes favored by a whopping 14 points. A major factor in that number is the absence of Okobo, which leaves an already-thin ASVEL roster without its best player for this Round and several more. The French team will presumably need a big night from Chris Jones to even remain in striking range, and he has had quite a few of those, hitting the 20-point mark on DraftKings 18 times this season and the 30-point mark on six occasions. While ASVEL will be down one half of its dynamic backcourt, Efes' appears to be at full strength, as both Shane Larkin and Vasilije Micic both put up some big numbers their last time out. A high-scoring game naturally favors both players, but if Efes runs away on the scoreboard, they could take it easy Friday, particularly with both being listed on the injury report prior to their last game Wednesday.

DFS Darlings: The lofty total sets up some value potential, as does the fact both teams have had trouble containing players at the forward positions. Efes ranks last against forwards in all of the points, rebounds, assists and FGA categories, which means you can consider all of Marcos Knight, Dylan Osetkowski, Kostas Antetokounmpo and Charles Kahudi. The latter three particularly stand out with none of them checking in above $6,600 on DraftKings, but Knight is the most likely of the bunch to pick up the slack for Okobo in the scoring column. Paul Lacombe also looks like a pretty appealing option, as despite a tough matchup, he put up a season-high 29.3 fantasy points when Okobo was out for Round 22. Players to consider on the Efes side include Adrien Moerman, Tibor Pleiss and Elijah Bryant. Moerman has the best matchup of the bunch, Pleiss has returned 3x value at his current price 10 times this season, and Bryant -- even though he was also on the injury report prior to Round 24 -- could be worth a gamble at a meager $4,600.

UNICS Kazan at Zalgiris Kaunas

Status Check: Josh Nebo (ZAL), Janis Strelnieks (ZAL), Mantas Kalnietis (ZAL)

Best Bets for Success: UNICS has been one of the biggest surprises in the EuroLeague this season, but they have hit a skid, losing three straight and getting blown out by ALBA their last time out. They have a prime opportunity to get back on track against last-place Zalgiris on Friday, and the oddsmakers like their chances, but only by a handful of points. UNICS' primary contributors, Lorenzo Brown and Mario Hezonja, also hit a wall in Round 24, but they too will be in position to bounce back, as they both topped the 30-point mark on DraftKings when these teams squared off in Round 16. Brown is returning more average value than anyone on the board, and Hezonja is also pretty high on the list. It remains tough to tell who the best option is on the Zalgiris side, but with Strelnieks and Kalnietis both unlikely to go, we're going to choose Lukas Lekavicius. In the six games he has played at least 25 minutes, Lekavicius has averaged 13.5 points, 7.0 assists and 27.5 DraftKings points. That's pretty appealing even with him crossing the $8,000 mark for the second time this season.

DFS Darlings: If you're looking for value, you might not find a lot in this game, as the over/under is roughly 10 points lower than the two games above, UNICS is generally pretty top-heavy and some intriguing options on the Zalgiris side are a bit pricey. When you factor in the matchups as well, Isaiah Canaan is really the only player we want to list here, as he checks in at a season-low $7,500 an will be bound not go 1-for-15 again. If you need a next-best option, look at Tonye Jekiri, who averaged 24.5 fantasy points over his last three appearances and nearly dropped a double-double last time he faced the Lithuanian team. And for what it's worth, UNICS is ceding the most rebounds to opposing centers.

Olympiacos Piraeus  at Bitci Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

Status Check: Giannoulis Larentzakis (OLY), Quincy Acy (OLY)

Best Bets for Success: Olympiacos sits 10 spots higher in the standings than Baskonia, but with them not playing nearly as well on the road as they do at home and the Spanish squad at full strength for the first time all season, the visitors are favored by only a few points. The first matchup between these teams was anything but close, as the Greek team blew out the Spanish squad all the way back in Round 1. The playing time was spread out fairly evenly given the lopsided score, but Sasha Vezenkov still managed to score 16 points despite spending only 22 minutes on the court. Both numbers could go up if Friday's game is competitive, particularly with Baskonia ranking bottom-3 against forwards in all of the points, rebounds, assists, threes and FGA departments. While Vezenkov will be the best option on the Olympiacos side, Kostas Sloukas is not far behind, having averaged 28.2 fantasy points over his last five appearances. Wade Baldwin is producing as well as anyone in the game right now, averaging a stellar 35.1 points on DraftKings in his last six appearances. It's tough to match that upside, but it's also tough to stay that hot, and Olympiacos does rank top-3 against guards in both the points and FG% categories. 

DFS Darlings: Baskonia's value plays won't be as appealing as they were recently with everyone available, but Rokas Giedraitis seems to have gotten going again and looks like a nice option at $8,500. Steven Enoch can be considered, though it's unclear exactly how the minutes will shake out in the post. Tyler Dorsey is another name to look at with his DraftKings price falling back below the $9,000 mark. Other Olympiacos forwards to consider besides Vezenkov are Kostas Papanikolaou at $7,000 and Livio Jean-Charles, who is listed at a measly $4,300.

Zenit Saint Petersburg at Real Madrid

Status Check: Shabazz Napier (ZEN), Arturas Gudaitis (ZEN), Mateusz Ponitka (ZEN), Conner Frankamp (ZEN), Anton Pushkov (ZEN), Gabriel Deck (RMB), Adam Hanga (RMB), Jeffery Taylor (RMB)

Best Bets for Success: The final game of the day is likely the most intriguing, as the visitors come in amid a 5-1 run and the hosts will be seeking its ninth win in a row. Zenit was already at a disadvantage facing a team that has not lost on its home court this season, and they will be at an even greater one with it looking like all five players above will be unavailable. If the Russian team hopes to come away with the victory, they will need some big nights from their best two players, Jordan Loyd and Jordan Mickey. Neither player did a lot when these teams met in Round 6, and neither will have an inviting matchup, as Madrid ranks top-4 against guards in the points, threes and FG% and top-4 against frontcourt players in four of the six counting stats, but they should get as many minutes and opportunities to produce as they can handle if Zenit leans on seven players like they did Tuesday. Both enter on a roll, with Loyd averaging 27.6 DraftKings points over his last three games and Mickey averaging 28.8. The Spanish squad also has two players who stand out, with Walter Tavares averaging 29.0 DraftKings points over his last three appearances and Guerschon Yabusele putting up the same number over his last five. Both players are returning some of the most average value on the board, but Tavares has the clear edge in the matchup department, as Zenit is ceding the fewest points, rebounds and FGA to opposing forwards but ranks bottom-2 against centers in the points, blocks and FGA categories.

DFS Darlings: This game is not expected to be as high-scoring as some of the games contested earlier in the day, but given the lack of players on the Zenit side, you are bound to find some value on their roster. The best bet to deliver is Billy Baron, who put up at least 25.5 DraftKings points in three of his last four appearances. Baron is as pricey as he has been all season on that website, but he won't have to go toe-to-toe with Madrid's imposing frontcourt, and he recorded 14 points and four triples when these teams last met. Like Baron, Alex Poythress checks in at his highest price point, but he too has been productive of late, putting up at least 21.3 DraftKings points in four of his last seven games. Dmitry Kulagin deserves consideration at $6,300, and although he was not one of the players who played extensively Tuesday, Mindaugas Kuzminskas could be worth a dart throw at $4,900. It's tougher to find bargains on the Real Madrid roster, as even with a few players banged up their team is as deep as they come. The Russian team fares pretty well against guards in addition to forwards, but Thomas Heurtel will still be in play, as he is averaging quite a bit of value at $8,500 and put up a season-high 31.8 DraftKings points last time he saw Zenit. The matchup also favors Vincent Poirier, who is listed at a reasonable $7,900.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin O'Brien plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kevob100, DraftKings: kevob100.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin O'Brien
Kevin mans the Packers and Brewers beats and moonlights as RotoWire's Director of Operations.
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