British Grand Prix
Location: Silverstone, England
Course: Silverstone Circuit
Course Length: 5.891 KM
British Grand Prix Race Preview
It's difficult to say whether Red Bull has been truly dominant of late or if Ferrari has fumbled away their early-season advantage. Regardless of the reason, Red Bull has won six consecutive races and has widened the gap in the constructor standings to 76 points. Max Verstappen has five of those wins, and he owns a 46-point advantage over Charles Leclerc in the driver standings as a result. If we have hope to have anything close to the championship competition of 2021, Ferrari will need a big weekend.
As is typical, we have a few teams unveiling upgraded packages. Mercedes is the most competitive team boasting an upgrade and many expect the new package to vault them back into true podium contention -- including Red Bull team boss Christian Horner. Alex Albon of Williams will also be a name to watch. Williams only upgraded his car – not Nicholas Latifi's – and it is the first upgrade the team has introduced this season. Albon has shown the ability to compete for points finishes even in a car with poor pace, so if the upgrade lands he could be a longshot top-10 finisher.
Key Stats at Silverstone Circuit
Number of Races: 57
Winners from Pole: 20
Winners from top-5 starters: 53
Winners from top-10 starters: 57
Fastest Lap: 1:27.639 – Lewis Hamilton
Previous 10 British Grand Prix winners
The Silverstone Circuit itself is fast. Eighty percent of the lap is taken at full throttle, which leads to both a lot of action on the track and the need for strong tire management. That explains the relatively low rate of pole finishers that manage to win the race, as compared to some of the circuits raced earlier in the season such as Barcelona and Monaco. For both bets and DraftKings lineups, don't be afraid to build through drivers and constructors that would seemingly be longshots – within reason.
Pirelli recognizes the demand that the track places on their tires and has sent the three hardest compounds for the weekend. When looking at pit strategy, we can't take much from last year's race because it was a sprint weekend and there was a red flag on the opening lap that allowed a free tire change and altered team's plans. Even so, we can expect the default strategy to be starting the race on the medium compound before running a final stint on the hard compound. Of course, those who don't qualify as well as hoped will alter that strategy as they see fit.
DraftKings Value Picks for the British Grand Prix
DraftKings Constructor Values
Red Bull Racing - $11,900
Ferrari - $10,800
McLaren - $6,000
Alpine - $5,400
Alfa Romeo - $4,000
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the British Grand Prix
Until proven otherwise, Red Bull and Ferrari are the only two constructors capable of putting their cars into realistic contention to win a race. Without simply building a contrarian lineup for the sake of it (which is viable from a game theory perspective), all lineups will build through those two teams. Leclerc has finished on the podium in every race as a Ferrari driver at Silverstone, even when the car hasn't been as strong as it is in 2022. There's a reasonable case to use him in the Captain slot based on his past form at the circuit. Contrarily, Sergio Perez has finished 16th, 17th and 10th in his last three races. To be fair, only the 16th place finish came as a Red Bull driver. Even so, that individual form does point to potentially building through Ferrari and Leclerc. However, Verstappen's recent dominance still has me leaning toward a stack of him and Red Bull to begin my lineup.
Nothing in Tier 2 should be particularly surprising given the results of the season and pace of the drivers in that group. The driver to highlight is Norris. McLaren performs well at circuits where there are high-speed corners and minimal breaking even dating back to 2021. Norris' best result this season was a third-place finish at Emilia Romagna, which has a 70 percent full-throttle rate. Silverstone is even higher, so I like both McLaren drivers to finish well in the race. If I were to pivot away from a build with Leclerc or Verstappen paired with Ferrari or Red Bull as my captain/constructor combo, I'd look to Norris/McLaren.
In Tier 3, the drivers priced in the punt range are the most interesting discussion point. Albon has shown the ability to get the most out of his Williams this season and now the team is poised to offer its first upgrade of the season. Aside from being a near lock to beat teammate Nicholas Latifi, Albon should fight for points toward the back-end of the top-10. Guanyu is a bit of a different discussion but still a strong value. Alfa Romeo has a quick car, which Valtteri Bottas has proven throughout the first nine races. Guanyu has been inconsistent in his results as a rookie, but he is familiar with the Silverstone Circuit due to his experience in F2 -- something he noted during his media availability Thursday. He's also just run into bad luck with technical failures in his rookie season, so there's the case to be made that he is simply mispriced.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the British Grand Prix (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Race Winner – Max Verstappen (-105), Charles Leclerc (+220)
Top-6 finish- Lando Norris (+110), Valtteri Bottas (+130), Daniel Ricciardo (+425)
Top-10 finish- Zhou Guanyu (+170), Alex Albon (+550)
Winning Margin – Between 5 and 10 seconds (+300)
Much of the analysis for these picks follows the same logic as the DK picks in the section above. To boil it down, I expect McLaren to have a good race, and both drivers have a realistic chance to finish in the top six.
As for the race winner, I'd be much more likely to bet on Leclerc. Verstappen getting a 51 percent implied chance to win the race isn't outlandish, but Leclerc doesn't get enough respect with a 31 percent implied chance. If both cars run without problem, Ferrari should have an even chance to stick with Red Bull. That's the same reason I'd bet on a tight winning marge, and the under five seconds (+185) is also a decent option.
Valtteri Bottas has secured a top-10 finish in seven of nine races this season, three of which have come in the top six. One of those was at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, and with a Ferrari engine powering the Alfa Romeo, it should be a strong week for both drivers.