Consistency, Volatility, and Predictability: Why You Should Draft Aaron Rodgers Ahead Of Calvin Johnson
Consistency, Volatility, and Predictability: Why You Should Draft Aaron Rodgers Ahead Of Calvin Johnson

If you knew without any doubt one kicker would (hypothetically) score 1,000 points this season, you'd do everything in your power to secure him, right? Even if you were limited to drafting just a single kicker, you might do so in the first round and hope he's the lucky one to outscore all other kickers by about 800 points. If you get it right, the fantasy crown is yours. In the same league, one shrewd owner waits until the last round to draft his kicker. Even with 1,000 fantasy points on the line, he stocks up on skill positions as per usual. Does he know something the rest of his league mates don't?

The fact is that the majority of fantasy owners either ignore or don't fully comprehend position volatility, and it can have dire consequences on their draft strategies. If a particular position had zero predictability - meaning it was impossible to project accurately - we should completely ignore it.

In reality, the kicker position has zero consistency from year to year. As a whole, the position is impossible to predict - pick a starting kicker on any team you'd like, and he'll be just about as likely to lead the league in fantasy points as any other kicker. In other words, the kicker position has amazingly high volatility.

Smart fantasy owners thrive on making accurate predictions. After all, that's really what the draft is about - making predictions that are more accurate than the general consensus in an

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jonathan Bales
Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, and NBC.
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