This article is part of our Polarizing Players series.
Derrick Henry enters his age-28 season after missing nine games last year with a foot injury. Is he in the top-4 at his position or is it time to downgrade him?
Upside
Henry continued to run past defenses last year with a 94th-percentile yards-after-contact rank. He had a five-game stretch Weeks 2-6 in which he averaged 145 rushing yards, 20 receiving yards and two touchdowns. A couple weeks later he was headed to IR. On the season, he led the league with 29.6 touches per game. And aside from breaking his foot last year, Henry's never missed more than one game in any season. If he continues his 2021 pace, he'll be a top-4 running back, regardless of scoring system.
Downside
Despite the positives he showed through Week 6, in his last two games before breaking his foot, he rushed 57 times for 154 yards (2.7 yards per carry). He was on pace for 503 touches after 418 in 2020 and 409 in 2019 (including playoffs), and it's possible he had started to slow due to overuse. Even with the big games he had last year, his rushing average dropped by more than yard from 2018-2020 (5.2) to 2021 (4.3). Overuse often slows running backs, and Henry's three-year workload has been gargantuan. It's entirely possible he's no longer at the top of his game and finishes as a borderline top-12 running back this season.
The Verdict
The bet on Henry is simple. Either he's still at the elite level he's
Derrick Henry enters his age-28 season after missing nine games last year with a foot injury. Is he in the top-4 at his position or is it time to downgrade him?
Upside
Henry continued to run past defenses last year with a 94th-percentile yards-after-contact rank. He had a five-game stretch Weeks 2-6 in which he averaged 145 rushing yards, 20 receiving yards and two touchdowns. A couple weeks later he was headed to IR. On the season, he led the league with 29.6 touches per game. And aside from breaking his foot last year, Henry's never missed more than one game in any season. If he continues his 2021 pace, he'll be a top-4 running back, regardless of scoring system.
Downside
Despite the positives he showed through Week 6, in his last two games before breaking his foot, he rushed 57 times for 154 yards (2.7 yards per carry). He was on pace for 503 touches after 418 in 2020 and 409 in 2019 (including playoffs), and it's possible he had started to slow due to overuse. Even with the big games he had last year, his rushing average dropped by more than yard from 2018-2020 (5.2) to 2021 (4.3). Overuse often slows running backs, and Henry's three-year workload has been gargantuan. It's entirely possible he's no longer at the top of his game and finishes as a borderline top-12 running back this season.
The Verdict
The bet on Henry is simple. Either he's still at the elite level he's shown for most of the last three years, or that tiny two-game sample last year was a sign of things to come. Since he had sustained dominance last year, it's reasonable to assume he has another big year in the tank. Also, the half season off due to injury might help preserve him a bit. I would prefer to select him in the latter part of the first round because there are players in the top 6 who are safer with similar upside.
