Cinderellas aren't just for March Madness. Every year there is at least one NFL team that many picked to be dismal that ended up coming out of nowhere to make a surprising playoff run.
Last year, it was the Washington Commanders. Led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Associated Press' Offensive Rookie of the Year last season, the Commanders went from a team with preseason odds of +15000 to win Super Bowl LIX at BetMGM to playing in the NFC Championship Game, a win away from the Super Bowl.
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Introducing The NFL Cinderella Index
So who can be this season's Commanders? At RotoWire, we poured over data from the past five seasons and found common traits among teams that stunned pundits and fans alike. We then used that to create a Cinderella profile and looked to see what teams have the best chances of being this season's stunner.
What is the Cinderella profile? Over the past five years, the surprising team has featured the following:
- An ESPN Preseason Power Ranking of 27 (out of the 32 teams)
- A head coach with an average of three years with the team
- A starting quarterback with a year of experience
- A preseason win total set at 6.5
- Preseason odds of +13600 to win the Super Bowl
- A previous season win total of four
After reviewing this year's NFL teams, the one most likely to wear the glass cleat in 2025 is … The Carolina Panthers.
2025 NFL Cinderella Index
Rank | Team | Percentage of Profile |
1 | Carolina Panthers | 90.0% |
2 | Tennessee Titans | 85.8% |
3 | Indianapolis Colts | 83.3% |
4 | New England Patriots | 81.7% |
5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 80.8% |
6 | New York Jets | 78.3% |
7 | Miami Dolphins | 76.7% |
8 | Atlanta Falcons | 75.0% |
9 | New York Giants | 74.2% |
10 | Chicago Bears | 70.0% |
11 | Las Vegas Raiders | 63.3% |
T-12 | Arizona Cardinals | 60.0% |
T-12 | Cleveland Browns | 60.0% |
14 | Dallas Cowboys | 57.5% |
15 | Seattle Seahawks | 54.2% |
Panthers Lead the 2025 NFL Cinderella Index
Carolina, which finished 5-12 last season, is the closest match out of all the teams because of several factors. In May, the Panthers landed 27th overall in ESPN's index. Coach Dave Canales returns for his second season.
Bryce Young enters 2025 with two years of experience at quarterback – the same amount of time Baker Mayfield had with the 2020 Cleveland Browns, that season's Cinderella. Young also showed significant improvement after a disastrous rookie season. After an early benching last season, the former Heisman Trophy winner reclaimed the starting job in Week 8 and led the Panthers to a 4-6 record while throwing for 2,104 yards. He also had 15 touchdowns and only six interceptions, compared to 11 TDs and 13 picks in his first 20 games.
Most sportsbooks have set the Panthers win total for 2025 at 6.5 wins and several give Canales' team odds of +15000 to win the Super Bowl.
Panthers Face Friendlier 2025 NFL Schedule
Looking beyond the profile, though, there are a couple of other factors that put Carolina in our minds.
For starters, they play in the NFC South, a division considered one of the weakest in the league. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won it four straight seasons, but Mayfield's current team has averaged only nine wins over the past three seasons. In addition, the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons are likely to rely on young quarterbacks as well this season, and that should give Carolina a chance to get as many as three wins.
The other primary reason why the Panthers may shock the NFL world is their schedule. Last season, Carolina played the NFC East and AFC West and went 2-6 against those teams, which featured five making the playoffs including the Commanders. (To the Panthers' credit, they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles by three and six points, respectively).
This year, the Panthers draw the NFC West and AFC East. While those divisions include the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills, they also offer winnable games against the likes of the Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and New York Jets. Also, the other AFC team Carolina faces this season is the Jacksonville Jaguars, another winnable contest.
Exploring the Potential NFL Cinderellas: Titans and Colts
The Panthers aren't the only team with a strong Cinderella resume.
In Nashville, the Tennessee Titans are coming off a 3-14 campaign in coach Brian Callahan's first season. The Titans also earned the top draft pick and selected Miami (Fla.) quarterback Cam Ward, who is the sportsbooks' consensus second choice for 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, the Titans defense was among the league's worst last season and likely may be among the bottom this season, too.
The Indianapolis Colts, another AFC South team, also has a strong Cinderella pedigree. While they were 8-9 last season under then-rookie coach Shane Steichen, many experts believe the Colts will take a step or two back this season as their win total is set at 7.5. A big question for the Colts is quarterback Anthony Richardson. The former Florida Gators star is still considered a project as he enters his third season. He's also injury-prone, and the dislocated finger he suffered in the preseason opener against the Baltimore Ravens only adds to those concerns.
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Previous NFL Cinderellas
| Year | Team | Previous Record | Season Record |
| 2020 | Cleveland Browns | 6-10 | 11-5, reached AFC Divisional Playoff Round |
| 2021 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4-11-1 | 10-7, reached Super Bowl |
| 2022 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-14 | 9-8, reached AFC Divisional Playoff Round |
| 2023 | Houston Texans | 3-13-1 | 10-7, reached AFC Divisional Playoff Round |
| 2024 | Washington Commanders | 4-13 | 12-5, reached NFC Championship Game |
