Beating the Book: NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of Beating the Book, where we hand out NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

We're coming off of an 8-8 ATS mark for our NFL picks in Week 4 – not what we were looking for, but we'll take it given that we openly did not love the board heading into the weekend. Our three-game best bets streak did come to end thanks to the Packers failing to cover the 6.5 at Dallas, despite putting up 40 points on what (still) looks to be one of the worst defenses in football. 

Nevertheless, we press on to Week 5, which brings us another international game – Vikings-Browns in London; buckle the hell up – as well as our first set of bye weeks. The Packers, Falcons, Bears and Steelers are all idle this week.

As of publication, the Lions are the biggest favorites on the board, giving 10.0 points to the Bengals in Cincinnati. Arizona is a sizable favorite over the Titans, while the Bills and Colts are each laying at least a touchdown.

I can tell you right now, we have several Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week candidates vying for that dubious title. Vikings-Browns, Texans-Ravens, Dolphins-Panthers and Giants-Saints will each be difficult evaluations. The entire week, of course, is building toward the Monday Night Football showdown between the 2-2 Chiefs and the 3-1, AFC South co-leading Jacksonville Jaguars down in Duval County. 

You can find my thoughts on all of that slobberknocker, and the entire Week 5 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 4:

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• Lions -9.5 vs. Browns: While the Lions were playing on a short week, we expected a letdown game from the Browns after pulling a big SU upset in Week 3.
• Chiefs +2.5 vs. Ravens: We certainly did not forecast a complete beatdown, but the Chiefs' offense had its way with a struggling and banged-up Ravens team.

Worst calls of Week 4:

• Packers -6.5 at Cowboys: We foolishly locked up the Packers as our best bet, forgetting that Matt LaFleur simply cannot be trusted.
• Bills -16.5 vs. Saints: After failing to cover a big number at home in Week 3, the Bills once again come out looking sluggish against a winless opponent.

Last week:  8-8 ATS; 10-5-1 SU; best bet lost (GB -6.5)

On the season: 33-29-2 ATS; 43-20-1 SU; 3-1 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -6.5

Total: 47.5

We kick off the Week 5 slate with a big divisional matchup in the NFC West. The Rams are coming off of a narrow, in-many-ways-fortunate victory over the Colts last week, while the Niners fell at home to the Jaguars. Injuries continue to mount for the Niners, who seem to deal with this on an annual basis.

We already know George Kittle and Nick Bosa are out, while Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Mykel Williams and Renardo Green are all at risk of sitting out. Given the Niners' injury report, having to turn around and play on a short week is a worst-case scenario.

Under the belief that San Francisco could be without its starting quarterback and top three pass-catchers, the Rams have to be the side here at 6.5, even if Mac Jones can keep things interesting.

The pick: Rams 27 – 49ers 17

Sunday NFL London Game

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Vikings -4.5

Total: 36.5

Yikes. It's your call whether or not you want to set an alarm for this game. I'm not going to tell you what to do. The total has careened down to 36.5, which feels appropriate given that we have an elite Browns defense taking on Carson Wentz, who tossed two picks in an ugly loss to the Steelers in Dublin.

To be fair, Wentz wasn't a total disaster. Both Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson went over 100 yards, but the Vikings' offensive line is in shambles right now, as Wentz was sacked six times and Minnesota was held to just 70 rushing yards on the day.

While the Browns are an extremely limited offensive team, this is not the defense the Vikings want to see right now. Despite playing a gauntlet of a schedule – Bengals (with Burrow), Ravens, Packers,  Lions – the Browns rank 13th in defensive EPA and third in opponent success rate. Cleveland has been particularly stout against the run – fourth in EPA per rush – so this may be a game Wentz has to win with his arm.

Minnesota does still have an overall talent advantage – plus the advantage of playing a second straight international game – but we'll lean on the Browns to make this a predictably low-scoring game and cover the 4.5. Look for Quinshon Judkins to test the Vikings' defense, which surrendered 31.4 fantasy points to Kenneth Gainwell in Week 4.

The pick: Vikings 20 – Browns 17

Sunday Early Slate

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Texans -1.5

Total: 43.5

Earlier in the week, the Ravens were 3.5-point home favorites, but the line immediately shot toward Houston with Tuesday's news that Lamar Jackson will not play – and could miss multiple weeks – due to a hamstring injury. Already sitting at 1-3 after an ugly loss in Kansas City on Sunday, the Ravens will now turn to Cooper Rush against a ferocious Houston defense that just pitched a shutout – albeit against Tennessee – in Week 4.

To make matters worse, the Ravens will also be without several key pieces on defense, including Marlon Humphrey, Roquan Smith, Nnamdi Madubuike and Nate Wiggins. Through four weeks, no defense has allowed more points than Baltimore, which ranks 30th in EPA while forcing only two turnovers.

Moving from Jackson to Rush is obviously a massive downgrade, and it completely changes an offense that was already struggling to get Derrick Henry going. After a monster Week 1 in Buffalo, Henry has just 115 yards on 31 carries over the last three games. Entering Week 5, he ranks 34th among qualified running backs (min 25 carries) in EPA per rush and 28th in success rate. A season ago, Henry ranked 2nd and 5th, respectively, in those categories (min. 100 carries).

Meanwhile, the Texans finally have some momentum after completely shutting down the Titans last week, though Houston did score 20 of its 26 points in the fourth quarter and didn't reach the red zone until the final period. Through four games, the Texans have only six red zone drives and have converted two of those into touchdowns.

We do have to keep in mind that Rush has a decent chunk of starting experience, so we can't completely write off Baltimore. But this should be a spot where Houston can move the ball more effectively than it has thus far. Texans win and cover the 1.5.

Note: Even with the 1-3 start, rampant injuries, and the Rams coming up next week, Baltimore is still -140 to win the AFC North and +550 to win the AFC at DraftKings.

The pick: Texans 21 – Ravens 18

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Dolphins -1.5

Total: 44.5

This is a strong contender for our Stay-Away of the Week, but we'll save that for another game in the late window. Nonetheless, this is a clear "avoid at all costs" for me. We have two shaky quarterbacks, two shaky defenses and the Dolphins heading out on the road after playing on Monday night.

The Dolphins do deserve credit for earning their first win of the season, but it wasn't exactly in convincing fashion, as the Jets put up over 400 yards of offense, including 197 yards on the ground, and committed 13 penalties and three killer turnovers.

On the other side, the Panthers limp their way into Week 5 fresh off of a beatdown at the hands of the Patriots. Heading into that game, it was fair to wonder if Carolina had turned somewhat of a corner after a 30-0 win over Atlanta. Instead, the Panthers took an early 6-0 lead and promptly gave up 42 unanswered points before tacking on a garbage-time TD with less than two minutes to play.

On a positive note, the Panthers did not turn the ball over. On a negative note, it's really difficult to lose 42-13 without committing a turnover.

In what promises to be a sloppy, and dare I say wacky, game, we'll take Carolina to win outright as a slight home dog.

The pick: Panthers 28 – Dolphins 27

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -6.5

Total: 48.0

The Colts have been one of the stories of the season thus far, and despite taking their first loss of the season last week, I didn't come out of that game feeling any worse about this team. Daniel Jones did throw a pick on the first possession of the game, but had it not been for an Adonai Mitchell blunder – the second year in a row the Colts have done this, by the way – we may have seen a different result. Mitchell also had a brutal holding penalty that negated a long Jonathan Taylor touchdown.

While the Colts surrendering 462 yards of offense to the Rams is a concern, at the end of the day, they went on the road and played close to an even game against one of the best teams in the NFL. Through four weeks, Indy still ranks No. 1 in offensive success rate and No. 2 in EPA, including third overall in EPA per pass.

Returning home to face a reeling Raiders team should be a nice bounceback spot for Indy. Vegas nearly pulled out a win over the Bears last week in a game neither team truly deserved to win. Turnovers continue to be an issue for Geno Smith, who tossed three brutal picks, white Ashton Jeanty also lost a key fumble amid easily the best game of his young career.

With this number still sitting under 7.0, the Colts have to be the play. We also like the O47.5.

The pick: Colts 33 – Raiders 21

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -1.5

Total: 41.5

Jaxson Dart making his second career start on the road against The Rat Man just screams stay-away.

The decision to bench Russell Wilson felt destined from the start, and doing so against a 3-0 Chargers team felt like a risky spot, but even while Dart's numbers weren't anything special, he clearly provided a jolt to a struggling Giants offense. Dart threw for only 111 yards, but he was able to make plays with his legs and should have had an even bigger day on the ground had a long scramble in the second half not been called back on a penalty. Meanwhile, the Giants' defense forced a pair of key turnovers and was able to get after Justin Herbert, who finished 23-of-41 for 203 yards.

Last week, the Saints once again put up a valiant fight as massive underdogs on the road in Buffalo. Save for a blowout loss to Seattle in Week 3, the Saints have hung in with three quality opponents, keeping games close into the fourth quarter.

It's difficult to find an edge for either team, but we'll lean on New Orleans to pull out an ugly victory at home, so long as Spencer Rattler can continue to take care of the ball. The U41.5 is my favorite play here.

The pick: Saints 17 – Giants 15

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets

Spread: Cowboys -2.5

Total: 47.0

With Houston, Miami and the Giants all picking up wins in Week 4, we're down to only three winless teams: New Orleans, Tennessee and the Jets. New York lost another winnable game on Monday night in Miami, falling 27-21 despite out-gaining the Dolphins 404 to 300 and ripping off 7.1 yards per play. Penalties (13 for 101 yards) and turnovers (3) doomed New York – the only team yet to force a turnover through four weeks.

The good news for the Jets is they now get to face a Dallas defense that's been a punching bag for the Giants, Bears and Packers over the last three weeks. Dallas ranks at, or near, the bottom of the league in just about every category, including surrendering the most third-down conversions and third-most red zone drives in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, though, Dak Prescott continues to play at an MVP level, while the Cowboys' running game has been a pleasant surprise. With CeeDee Lamb still sidelined, Dallas will need another big-time game out of Prescott to pull out a road victory.

Both teams will be able to move the ball, but we'll take Dallas to get it done and send the Jets to 0-5.

The pick: Cowboys 31 – Jets 27

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -4.5

Total: 44.5

We finish out the early window with what should be the best game of the 1pm ET slate. On a weekly basis, the Eagles seem to invent new ways to grind out victories – the latest of which being "what if we simply do not complete a pass in the second half?"

Last week's win over the Bucs was another head-scratcher. The Eagles were out-gained by nearly 200 yards but converted all three of their red zone opportunities while forcing a pair of big turnovers in the second half. They also started the game with a blocked-punt touchdown to help provide an early cushion.

Through four weeks, Philly has been out-gained by 327 total yards – they've been out-gained in all four games – and leads the league in three-and-out rate at over 45%. The numbers simply don't add up to a 4-0 record, and it truly is starting to feel very 2024 Chiefs-esque

Even so, Philly's talent is unquestioned, and all four victories have come against quality opponents. Entering this matchup, Philly has ripped off 20 consecutive SU wins in games Jalen Hurts starts and finishes.

On the Broncos side, they head to the east coast on a short week after taking care of business in an easy win over the Bengals on Monday night. It was one of the more dominant wins of the season, by any team, as Denver out-gained Cincy 512 to 159 and allowed only nine first downs – three of which came via penalty.

Hurts and Co. will have their hands full with the Broncos' defense, but this will also be a step up in class for Bo Nix and the Broncos' running game. In what will likely be another how can they keep getting away with this? Game for Philly, we'll side with the Eagles to find a way to win SU, but Denver can cover the 4.5.

The pick: Eagles 24 – Broncos 21

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -8.5

Total: 41.5

Going to be honest: I don't have a ton of interest in watching this game. That doesn't mean I'm not going to watch it – I'm just not going to enjoy it. 

Save for a handful of fun/reckless Cam Ward plays per game, the Titans have come out about as flat as most expected, sitting 0-4 SU and a preposterous 3-18 ATS since the start of last season. Entering Week 5, Tennessee sits 31st in offensive success rate and 31st in EPA while converting just 15-of-54 third downs (NFL-worst 27.8%). Per-drive, Tennessee is averaging 5.5 plays and 19.1 yards – only Cincinnati is worse in both categories.

While the Cardinals have been a tough watch thus far, they sit at 2-2 following back-to-back losses on walk-off field goals – first to San Francisco, then to Seattle on Thursday night. Arizona's offense did wake up late in the Seattle game, but on balance it's been a fairly toothless attack. 

This number does feel a bit high considering the Cardinals' lack of explosive potential, but they are at home and have a significant rest advantage. This is closer to stay-away territory, but we'll roll with the Cards to narrowly cover the number in an ugly game.

The pick: Cardinals 21 – Titans 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -3.5

Total: 44.5

Fun game between two very evenly matched 3-1 teams. Seattle is riding a three-game winning streak, while the Bucs took their first loss of the season last week against Philly. Both teams are strong against the run, so this may come down to quarterback play. Sam Darnold is off to about as positive of a start as Seattle could hope, ranking second among QBs in PFF grade, fifth in EPA, third in success rate, first in CPOE, and second only to Justin Herbert in avoiding turnover-worthy plays.

The advanced numbers aren't as friendly toward Mayfield, but he's already led three game-winning drives and nearly pulled off another in Week 4. The big variable right now for Tampa Bay is the injury report. Mike Evans is out, two starting offensive linemen are out, and it certainly looks as though Bucky Irving is tracking toward missing at least one game. Tampa has the depth at RB and WR to withstand those absences, but they could be key in dictating the final result.

In what feels like a toss-up game, we'll take Seattle to win, but Tampa finds a way to cover the 3.5 on the road.

Important uniform note:

The pick: Seahawks 27 – Buccaneers 26

Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Lions -10.0

Total: 48.5

The late window brings us our most-lopsided spread of the week as the Lions are laying double-digits on the road. Normally, we would approach a number like this with plenty of caution, but the Lions are a team that tends to keep its foot on the gas against an inferior opponent. Detroit is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games and has covered at better than a 70 percent clip over the last four-plus seasons.

It's difficult to find the positives right now for Cincinnati, which has been out-scored 76 to 13 over the last two weeks and out-gained 864 to 330 yards in that span. Personally, I had higher hopes for the Chase-Higgins-Brown trio, even with Jake Browning, but it's been an abject disaster since the end of that wild Jaguars win in Week 2.

We're not going to over-think this one. Lions roll on the road.

The pick: Lions 40 – Bengals 14

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -2.5

Total: 47.5

At long last, it's time for our Nick Whalen Stay-Way of the Week. We have plenty of candidates on the Week 5 slate, but this is the one that's given me the most trouble. The Chargers do return home after a crushing loss to Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, but without the services of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, it's fair to wonder if the offense can operate with the same efficiency it did through the first three weeks.

On the Washington side, Jayden Daniels is back after a two-game absence, and the Commanders are hopeful to have Terry McLaurin on the field. With the number sitting at 2.5, the Chargers feel like the safer side, but if McLaurin is back at close to full capacity, this is a game the Commanders can steal on the road. 

What concerns me about the Washington side, however, is the Commanders' propensity for giving up big plays through the air. The Commanders rank dead-last in opponent ADOT and 27th in pass defense EPA. As much as I believe Daniels will give the LA defense problems, we'll roll with Justin Herbert to bounce back from last week's two-turnover performance.

The pick: Chargers 28 – Commanders 24

Sunday Night Football

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -7.5

Total: 50.5

The Patriots sit at 2-2 with plenty of winnable games left on the schedule, but this will be their most-difficult test, to date, and likely of the entire season. Coming off of an ugly, five-turnover showing against Pittsburgh in Week 3, the Pats bounced back with an impressive beatdown of the Panthers, ripping off 42 unanswered points after surrendering a first-drive touchdown.

While the Pats were ultimately out-gained by Carolina, they put up 6.4 yards per play, converted all four red zone opportunities, and got a punt return touchdown – as well as another 61-yard near-touchdown – from Marcus Jones.

Sitting at 4-0, the Bills have somewhat-sleepwalked their way through a pair of wins over the Dolphins and Saints, failing to cover both games as a double-digit favorite. Week 4 marked the ninth consecutive instance in which Buffalo has failed to cover as a double-digit home favorite.

This time around, the number isn't quite in that territory, but the Bills are once again expected to take care of business. With that said, the Buffalo defense hasn't been overly impressive – particularly against the run – so we shouldn't be surprised if the Pats make this uncomfortable. Under the assumption that Ed Oliver and Matt Milano are back this week, we'll – once again, after losing on them the last two weeks – side with Buffalo, but I don't love this one.

Uniform note: The Bills will be wearing their all-white "rivalry" uniforms. A little early in the year for those, but we'll take it.

The pick: Bills 31 – Patriots 24

Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Chiefs -3.0

Total: 46.5

What a Monday night for Jacksonville Jaguars/Milwaukee Brewers fans like myself. Game 2 of the NLDS going up against one of the bigger Jags home games in recent memory. Getting chills just thinking about it.

Jacksonville comes in at 3-1 following a win at San Francisco, and while the Jags could easily be 4-0, even the 3-1 start has felt a bit flukey. With four turnovers last week, The Teal Curtain is now up to an NFL-leading 13 on the season – four more than all of last season. Jacksonville has forced at least three takeaways in every game, a trend that's unlikely to continue against Patrick Mahomes. Takeaways aside, the Jags' defense has absolutely improved leaps and bounds over last season (2nd in EPA; 4th in SUCC%), but it may not have the services of Travon Walker this week. 

On the other side of the ball, Trevor Lawrence has been mostly fine, but he's yet to fully unlock Brian Thomas and has had trouble hitting throws down the field. That's led Jacksonville to lean more heavily on the ground game, which has been among the most-efficient in the league thus far.

As much as I'd love to project a 4-1 start, the Chiefs' defense looks to be rounding into form and will be a massive test for what certainly appears to be a vastly improved Jacksonville offensive line. We're still in need-to-see-more mode on the KC offense, but last week's 37-point effort against Baltimore felt like a real step in the right direction as the return of Rashee Rice inches closer.

Expect Jacksonville to make this a game, but the Jags simply commit too many penalties (No. 1 in total penalties; -124 NET penalty yards) and mistakes to trust against an operation like the Chiefs. Coming into the week, the Jags lead the NFL in total penalties with a -124 penalty yard differential. Trevor Lawrence ranks 25th in turnover-worthy plays and ahead of only Cam Ward in completion percentage above expected. Drops, of course, have played a major role, but that's going to be part of the equation for the Jags until proven otherwise.

Counterpoint: Monday is Trevor Lawrence's birthday: 

The pick: Chiefs 23 – Jaguars 17