Buffalo Bills vs. 
Atlanta Falcons: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 6
The Buffalo Bills (4-1) travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons (2-2) in an inter-conference matchup on Monday Night Football. The Bills are coming off a close home loss against the Patriots, while Falcons had a big home win against the Commanders.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds
- Bills -3.5 (Caesars Sportsbook -105) / Falcons +4.5 (DraftKings -112)
- Bills ML (ESPN Bet -200) / Falcons ML (DraftKings +180)
- Total OVER 49.5 (ESPN Bet -120) / UNDER 50.5 (FanDuel -118)
- Bills total points: Over/Under 27.5 (FanDuel -102)
Falcons total points: Over/Under 23.5 (DraftKings -118) - First-half spread: Bills -2.5 (BetRivers -110) / Falcons +2.5 (DraftKings +100)
- First-half total: Over 24.5 (DraftKings -102) / Under 24.5 (Caesars Sportsbook -113)
- First-half team total: Bills Over/Under 13.5 (BetRivers -104) Falcons Over/Under 10.5 (BetRivers +102)
The Bills opened as 5.5-point road favorites, and it has bounced around the range of -3.5 to -5.5 over the last 2 weeks. With this being a Monday night game and there is a double header, I have heard this game has been extremely popular in teasers on both sides, with the Bills being teased down and the Falcons being teased up.
The total opened 48.5 and jumped to 50.0 on 9/30, and similar to the movement on the side, we get a number that has bounced around from 48.5 - 50.5 over the last two weeks. As I mentioned before, with multiple games on Monday night, you have options for people to parlay and tease sides and totals which is why we are seeing this type of movement.
The majority of the bets (76%) have come in on the Bills, but the handle (56%) is 20% less. This shows that the "sharp" money is coming in on the Falcons.
The total is seeing money on the Under at 67% of total bets, and 33% of the handle.
The moneyline is overwhelmingly on the Bills at 94% of the bets and 99% of the money which is scary because this is close to what we saw in the Chiefs/Jaguars last week with all the money coming in on the Chiefs.
Key Injuries
Bills - DT T.J. Sanders (O), S Damar Hamlin (O), LB Matt Milano (O), WR Curtis Samuel (Q), TE Dalton Kincaid (Q)
Falcons - DE LaCale London (O), S Billy Bowman Jr (Q), CB Clark Phillips (O), WR Darnell Mooney (O), CB Natrone Brooks (Q), S Jordan Fuller (O),
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Bills vs. Falcons Betting Picks
Both teams have robust running games and weaker run defenses, but without Darnell Mooney I would expect Drake London to get a ton of targets and his OVER receptions / receiving yards props are ones to target. It is hard to trust Michael Penix Jr in a close game against a team like the Bills, but I do like a close game around the posted total of 50.0.
The Falcons are coming off a bye week and a big home win, while the Bills are coming off a tough home loss. I do have to lean on the home dog in prime time with a week to prepare.
BETTING TRENDS
- Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games.
- Buffalo is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games.
- Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against Atlanta.
- Atlanta is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 13 games.
- Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games against Buffalo.
The Bills' offense ranks #1 in total yards per game; the Falcons are 6th
The Bills are 2nd in rushing yards per game, the Falcons are 4th
The Bills allow 145 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry.
The Falcons' passing defense has limited opponents to 135 passing yards and ranks #1 in total yards allowed. The Bills rank second.
Bills vs. Falcons Best Bets
- Bills/Falcons UNDER 50.0 for 1 unit (Bet 365 -110)
- Falcons +3.5 (Caesars +105)
- Drake London OVER 72.5 receiving yards for 1 unit (FanDuel -114)
Bills vs. Falcons Prediction
This looks like a running game dream on paper, with both teams having top rushing offenses, but also top passing defenses and weak run defenses. This should be another fun close game like what we saw in the Chiefs/Jaguars last Monday night.
