IDP Analysis: Curl Breaks Out

RISING

Kamren Curl, S, WAS

It's only one game, but it still feels safe to say that Curl will be one of the better defensive back IDPs in the season's second half. The rookie seventh-round pick out of Arkansas seems to have some real talent, and his IDP utility gets a huge boost for the fact that he's Washington's replacement for Landon Collins, whose role was highly conducive to IDP production. Curl is a different kind of player – a corner tweener, in fact, whereas Collins is sooner a linebacker tweener – yet Curl posted Collins-like numbers against the Giants on Sunday. He finished with 11 tackles and one sack on 77 snaps, which means he's on the DB1 radar as long as he keeps it up.

Carlos Dunlap, DE, SEA

If his first game with the Seahawks was any indication then Dunlap's 2020 struggles prior to that point had more to do with the Bengals organization than anything to do with Dunlap. Even though the Pete Carroll defense normally doesn't feature defensive ends like Dunlap, he was an instant fit even on short notice, playing 46 snaps and turning into a five-tackle, one-sack box score. Even with age 32 coming up this winter, Dunlap should fare well for the Seahawks going forward given that he arrived to the NFL as a truly blue chip athlete – guys like Dunlap (6-6, 278, 4.68-second 40) don't happen often.

Jayon Brown, (3-4) ILB, TEN

Brown hasn't been better on a per-snap basis for IDP owners this year – indeed, his per-snap tackle average in 2020 (0.117) lags a bit behind his 2019 figure (0.125) – but he's playing so many more snaps per game that his tackle production has nonetheless surged to a career high so far in 2020. Through half of the season he's already at nearly 2/3 of his 2019 snap count, which was accumulated over 14 games. As a result, he's on pace for 130 tackles after finishing last year with 105. The Titans defense is struggling to get off the field, and it's hard to see why that would change going forward. If it doesn't, then Brown should keep rolling – he has double-digit tackles in three of his last four games, largely thanks to the fact that he played 70 or more snaps in three of those four games.

Lonnie Johnson, S, HOU

This and the next entry (Isaiah Simmons) are somewhat more speculative than most 'Riser' blurbs in this article, so read both players as 'worth monitoring' rather than 'worth adding now.' Although, in some deeper IDP formats it very well might be worth immediately considering either player, so long as the expectations are reasonable.

The deal with Johnson is pretty simple in the meantime: after playing cornerback at Kentucky and through Week 1 of this year, his second NFL season, the Texans moved Johnson to safety. You have to keep expectations modest for a player moving to a new position, so the fact that Johnson hasn't made much noise since then isn't a final verdict of any sort on his future projection. He in any case has 26 tackles while playing 287 defensive snaps in eight games, and Week 9 marked his highest tackle count to this point with six on 49 snaps. Johnson is a rare athlete by safety standards – his frame (6-2, 213) is cumulatively about 75th percentile among safeties, according to Mockdraftable, while his 4.52 40 (65th percentile), 38-inch vertical (81st percentile) and 129-inch broad jump (91st percentile) all graded far above the average also. If Johnson can push underwhelming incumbent Eric Murray to a backup role then he should go from DB3-type fringe to a mainstream DB2 option.

Isaiah Simmons, LB, ARI

Simmons has a longer road to IDP relevance than Johnson, but it's worth keeping an eye on him going forward all the same. Simmons played a season-high 32 snaps against the Dolphins on Sunday, accumulating four tackles. Twelve of those snaps occurred at slot corner, according to PFF, so Simmons' playing time boost was likely related to the absences of Dre Kirkpatrick and Byron Murphy, but it's good for Simmons' interests regardless of how he gets his foot in the door. The more he plays the more he makes evident his talent, which should lead to more increases in playing time. With a Julian Peterson skill set on a somehow even more athletic frame, Simmons is the kind of explosive talent who will find counting stats regardless of where he's lining up – so long as he's lining up somewhere. Even with his usage all over the place in terms of position splits, Simmons has 16 tackles and an interception on just 116 snaps.

FALLING

Anthony Hitchens, (3-4) ILB, KC

For a couple years there Hitchens was one of those players who were mediocre in real life but great as an IDP because he had a high per-snap tackle rate and a three-down role with first the Cowboys and then the Chiefs. He was even off to a fairly fast start this year, producing 38 tackles in the first five games, but it looks like the Chiefs are phasing him out of the defense as we go into the season's second half. All year the Chiefs have rotated in Ben Niemann as a pass rushing and coverage specialist, and eventually super-athletic second-round Willie Gay will push for more snaps. If Hitchens' role was dwindling before Gay got involved, then it's just about game over at whichever point Gay starts increasing his workload.

Rashaan Evans, (3-4) ILB, TEN

Although he can do some Cool Stuff occasionally, Evans' overall game doesn't seem like a positive for the Titans defense. He's ostensibly a playmaking inside linebacker – someone athletic who makes splash plays – because at 6-2, 232 he's very light for an inside linebacker. Yet Evans' isn't actually that athletic for his build, and crucially he's proven to be a poor coverage linebacker in the NFL. If you're too small to anchor against the run, then you better be fast enough to cover. Evans appears to be neither, and his pass-rushing impact is similarly weak. That's why, in a season where Real Deal teammate Jayon Brown is logging career-high snap counts, Evans' playing time is locked in a sort of 2.5-down role, playing 57.7 snaps per game while Brown averages 69.6. Based on his current trajectory, Evans is at real risk of finishing the year short of the triple-digit tackle mark.

Patrick Queen, (3-4) ILB, BAL

It appears that, whatever story is written at the end of Queen's rookie year, the tale will be one with a rollercoaster plot. Queen has already had highs and lows – perhaps more of both await – but in terms of the most recent week Queen appears to be on a downward trend. His playing time has been steady at least – knock on wood – and if he keeps playing around 60 snaps per game then he'll be in a good position to stumble into some improved tackle production. That tackle production in the meantime has been poor for about a month, however, as he has just 19 stops over his last four games. Queen was posting big tackle totals before that (33 in four games), but what's concerning is that his recent tackle totals are more consistent with his LSU production, where he took a backseat to teammate Jacob Phillips in the tackle count. It's worth noting that Queen's PFF grades have been better in the second set of four games rather than the first, so perhaps his low tackle totals lately are a matter of bad luck. Either way, Queen is a total wildcard as an IDP for the foreseeable future.