NFL Injury Analysis: Maximizing Risk and Reward

NFL Injury Analysis: Maximizing Risk and Reward

This article is part of our Injury Analysis series.

The old idiom out of sight, out of mind can often be applied to NFL players who sustain significant injuries. Prolonged absences can influence a player's average draft position (ADP), as fantasy owners forget the lack of productivity can be attributed solely to health and often remove potential valuable players from their game plan. However, opportunistic owners will target these individuals at a discounted price on draft day, maximizing risk and reward. Let's take a look at a few players hoping to prove 2017 was an injury-driven anomaly.

David Johnson

Last season, Arizona Cardinal Johnson was one of the first players to come off the board after a stellar 2016 performance that included more than 2,000 total yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. Sadly a dislocated wrist sustained in Week 1 ended his season and forced those who invested in the running back to scramble for a replacement. Fortunately, Johnson was medically cleared before the start of the summer and enters training camp at 100 percent. Unlike a major knee or ankle injury, Johnson should display little to no long-term ramifications following his procedure and he should be drafted with confidence. He won't fall out of the first round, but his lost season could scare off some early pick investors.

Dalvin Cook

The Vikings running back was well on his way to a monster NFL debut season before tearing his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in Week 4. Surgery was performed shortly after the injury occurred, and Cook began a lengthy

The old idiom out of sight, out of mind can often be applied to NFL players who sustain significant injuries. Prolonged absences can influence a player's average draft position (ADP), as fantasy owners forget the lack of productivity can be attributed solely to health and often remove potential valuable players from their game plan. However, opportunistic owners will target these individuals at a discounted price on draft day, maximizing risk and reward. Let's take a look at a few players hoping to prove 2017 was an injury-driven anomaly.

David Johnson

Last season, Arizona Cardinal Johnson was one of the first players to come off the board after a stellar 2016 performance that included more than 2,000 total yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. Sadly a dislocated wrist sustained in Week 1 ended his season and forced those who invested in the running back to scramble for a replacement. Fortunately, Johnson was medically cleared before the start of the summer and enters training camp at 100 percent. Unlike a major knee or ankle injury, Johnson should display little to no long-term ramifications following his procedure and he should be drafted with confidence. He won't fall out of the first round, but his lost season could scare off some early pick investors.

Dalvin Cook

The Vikings running back was well on his way to a monster NFL debut season before tearing his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in Week 4. Surgery was performed shortly after the injury occurred, and Cook began a lengthy recovery process. Fortunately, Cook has cleared each step of his rehab protocol and was an active participant in OTAs. He will be closely monitored throughout training camp and routine days off should be expected. However, the Minnesota training staff has had success rehabbing players coming back from similar injuries, primarily Adrian Peterson, and Cook seems poised to start Week 1. Furthermore, the addition of quarterback Kirk Cousins should boost the team's aerial assault, easing the pressure placed on Cook and the running game. Don't be surprised if Cook is a leading candidate for the Comeback Player of the Year award.

Sterling Shepard

The Giants receiver put together an impressive rookie campaign in 2016, hauling in eight touchdowns while being targeted over a 100 times. Sadly he fell into a bit of a sophomore slump after a sprained ankle, recurring migraines, a hamstring strain, and a neck injury limited his availability. However, he had a strong spring and earned praise from Eli Manning for his development. It's clear he has earned the trust of Manning and could be in for a nice bounce-back year. While his list of injuries isn't overly alarming, he will carry a degree of risk entering the season. Shepard should start the year as the Giants' No. 2 receiver especially if he can make it through training camp without any issues.

Jordan Matthews

Matthews first season away from Philadelphia was a bust, as multiple injuries limited his time in Buffalo. He fractured his sternum in preseason and then needed surgery to mend a broken thumb. His season ultimately ended after he opted for cleanup procedures on his right ankle and left knee. The thumb and chest injuries appear to be isolated events and his knee and ankle should be good after he addressed the root of his chronic problems. He will proceed with a medium degree of risk but could be a nice early-season producer with teammate Julian Edelman suspended for four games. My biggest concern here is linked more to New England's tendency to provide vague and limited injury information than to Matthews himself. If the wideout were to suffer a setback or have another injury pop up, fantasy owners could have trouble decoding his true status.

Ryan Tannehill

Miami's starting quarterback has been limited by a left knee injury since the 2016 season. He initially suffered a sprained medial collateral ligament (MCL) and partially torn ACL but opted for a conservative, non-surgical recovery plan. Sadly, his attempts failed as surgery was ultimately needed after he hyperextended the joint in an early summer practice. Fortunately the timing of the incident should allow Tannehill ample recovery time, and he is expected to be readily available for training camp. He won't be a reliable starter for most fantasy rosters but Tannehill could prove to be a worthy backup or bye week flier.

Aaron Rodgers

The Green Bay signal caller burned fantasy owners last year, missing nine games after breaking his right clavicle (collarbone). The lost season may have soured Rodgers for some but don't let last year's disappointment overshadow his usual durability. His nine games lost in 2017 equaled his total number of games lost for the nine seasons leading up to last year. Oddly enough, the last time he missed more than a single game was 2013 when he fractured the opposite collarbone.
Rodgers' shoulder appears to be a nonissue entering training camp, as he was able to take in multiple rounds of golf over the break. The former MVP has eyes on playing until he's 40 and should be in line for a big year at age 34.

Greg Olsen

The Panthers Pro Bowl tight end and favorite target of Cam Newton missed eight consecutive weeks in 2017 after breaking his foot in Week 2 and another after aggravating the injury. Olsen broke his fifth metatarsal, a bone located on the outside aspect of the foot that bridges the bones of the midfoot with the bones of the pinkie toe. Fractures of the fifth metatarsal have become increasingly common in the NFL especially among wide receivers. Multiple players including Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Julian Edelman and Sammy Watkins have missed time in recent seasons with fractures of the fifth metatarsal. As was the case with Olsen, breaks here often require surgical intervention and can take longer to fully heal due to a limited supply of blood to the area. As a result, complications and secondary procedures are common. Fortunately the success rate following the first year is high and Olsen should be ok moving forward. He's no longer the top tight end on the board but he remains a valuable addition at a position lacking fantasy depth.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Stotts
Jeff Stotts works as a Certified Athletic Trainer (MAT, ATC, PES, CES). He won the 2011 Best Fantasy Football Article in Print from the Fantasy Sports Trade Association.
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