This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 4:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Colts | 40.70% | 775 | 88.57% | 4.65 |
| FALCONS | Bills | 16.80% | 365 | 78.49% | 3.61 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 12.50% | 300 | 75.00% | 3.13 |
| COWBOYS | Rams | 7.90% | 330 | 76.74% | 1.84 |
| CARDINALS | 49ers | 7.30% | 285 | 74.03% | 1.90 |
| PATRIOTS | Panthers | 6.70% | 385 | 79.38% | 1.38 |
| CHIEFS | Redskins | 3.10% | 295 | 74.68% | 0.78 |
| Jaguars | JETS | 1.90% | 180 | 64.29% | 0.68 |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 1.10% | 0.00% | 1.10 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is the first interesting slate of the year where we have a massive favorite (the Seahawks) who are highly owned (41%) compared to the field. I don't agree with all the Vegas numbers here, but let's run the math as if Vegas is correct.
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, if Seahawks win and Patriots lose, seven people are out on the Pats, and roughly 13 lose with other teams. That leaves 80 people remaining, and $1000/80 = $12.50.
If the Patriots win and Seahawks lose, 41 are out with the Seahawks and 13
Let's take a look at Week 4:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Colts | 40.70% | 775 | 88.57% | 4.65 |
| FALCONS | Bills | 16.80% | 365 | 78.49% | 3.61 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 12.50% | 300 | 75.00% | 3.13 |
| COWBOYS | Rams | 7.90% | 330 | 76.74% | 1.84 |
| CARDINALS | 49ers | 7.30% | 285 | 74.03% | 1.90 |
| PATRIOTS | Panthers | 6.70% | 385 | 79.38% | 1.38 |
| CHIEFS | Redskins | 3.10% | 295 | 74.68% | 0.78 |
| Jaguars | JETS | 1.90% | 180 | 64.29% | 0.68 |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 1.10% | 0.00% | 1.10 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is the first interesting slate of the year where we have a massive favorite (the Seahawks) who are highly owned (41%) compared to the field. I don't agree with all the Vegas numbers here, but let's run the math as if Vegas is correct.
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, if Seahawks win and Patriots lose, seven people are out on the Pats, and roughly 13 lose with other teams. That leaves 80 people remaining, and $1000/80 = $12.50.
If the Patriots win and Seahawks lose, 41 are out with the Seahawks and 13 others on various teams, leaving 46 remaining, and $1000/46 = $21.74.
The ratio of 21.74 to $12.50 = 1.74. That's the reward ratio.
But the Seahawks per Vegas are 88.5 percent to win, while the Pats are 79.4 percent. A Seahawks win/Patriots loss is therefore 18.2 percent likely, while a Patriots win/Seahawks loss is 9.1 percent.
The risk ratio is essentially 2:1.
So per the Vegas numbers, the Seahawks are still the pick as the risk of fading them outweighs the reward. And the Patriots were both the second highest win probability, and the lowest owned among the big favorites, but still lost out to Seattle - again, assuming you agree with Vegas.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
I almost never save teams. You can only use them once, and so getting that one win out of them is the best you can do. Go ahead and bank it while you're still alive, and it's still available. Of course, this is not a lock - the Seahawks barely survived against the 49ers two weeks ago, and Jacoby Brissett looks capable. But the Seahawks defense is still stout, and Russell Wilson found somne offense in the second half against Tennessee. I give the Seahawks an 89 percent chance to win this game.
2. Green Bay Packers
I love home teams off the short week, and the Packers are especially tough at Lambeau Field. The Bears are scrappy, but don't overrate a win against the road-challenged Steelers at home. I give the Packers an 80 percent chance to win this game.
3. New England Patriots
The Patriots have struggled defensively so far, while the Panthers offense, particularly Cam Newton, has let them down. The Pats could roll here, but if Newton snaps out of his funk, Carolina is a dangerous team. I give the Patriots a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are a good team, and the Bills are on odd collection of strengths and weaknesses. Tyrod Taylor is a bit of a wild card though, and LeSean McCoy is dangerous behind that line if he gets going. I give the Falcons a 77 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Kansas City Chiefs - They've been great so far, but the Redskins defense looked awfully good against the Raiders, and Kirk Cousins has the weapons to keep pace.
Dallas Cowboys - The Rams have been credible this year, and the Cowboys offensive line isn't playing at its customary level.
Arizona Cardinals - I don't trust them at all off a short week against a well-rested and better-coached 49ers team.
