Beating the Book: NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the Week 8 edition of Beating the Book, where we hand out NFL picks against the spread for every game, every week.

After a lackluster Week 6, we bounced back with an 11-4 ATS mark in Week 7, including hitting our best bet with the Lions covering on Monday night against Tampa Bay. Overall, it was a much-needed reversal for the public, which had been getting beyond crushed through the first month-and-a-half of the season.

We now turn to our NFL picks for Week 8, which brings us just 13 games, as the Jaguars, Lions, Raiders, Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks are all on bye. We also get a break from the international games, as well as the recent onslaught of Monday night doubleheaders.

As of publication, the red-hot Indianapolis Colts are easily the biggest favorite of the week, according to RotoWire's NFL Week 8 odds), while the Chiefs are also laying a big number at home against the Jayden Daniels-less Commanders. Philadelphia, New England, Buffalo, Baltimore, Atlanta and even Cincinnati are each favored by at least 6.5 points in what's shaping up to be a slate packed with lopsided numbers.

You can find my thoughts on those games, and the entire Week 8 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 7:

• Browns -2.5 vs. Dolphins: We didn't necessarily see this turning into a blowout, but the Browns are a really bad matchup for a lowly Dolphins team.
• Lions -5.0 vs. Buccaneers: The shorthanded Bucs put up a fight, but the Lions' secondary held up well. Detroit has now covered 12 in a row off of a SU loss.

Worst calls of Week 6:

• Broncos -6.5 vs. Giants: Denver somehow won the game after sleepwalking through the first three quarters, but at no point were the Broncos threatening to cover.
• Texans +3.5 at Seahawks: While four Seattle turnovers kept Houston in the game, the Texans' protection issues were once again too much to overcome.

Last week: 11-4 ATS; 14-1 SU; best bet won (DET -5.0)

On the season: 60-46-2 ATS; 74-33-1 SU; 5-2 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3.5

Total: 44.5

I hate to lead off the slate with our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week, but we're doing it. The Chargers are among the most difficult teams to figure out right now, having lost three of their last four following a convincing, 3-0 start. After giving up 401 yards and 38 points to the Colts in Week 7, the Chargers' defense has sunk into the bottom 10 in the NFL in EPA/play and 29th in EPA per rush.

Meanwhile, Minnesota is coming off of a loss to the Eagles in which it made six red zone trips and converted only one into a touchdown. The Vikings out-gained Philly, went 7-of-15 on third down and controlled time of possession, but two Carson Wentz interceptions – including a pick-six – were too much to overcome.

The Vikings will roll out Wentz once again this week as J.J. McCarthy continues to work back from an ankle injury. While Wentz is… Wentz, I still view him as an upgrade over McCarthy for the time being, and he'll give the Vikings a better chance to win this game on the road.

The pick: Chargers 23 – Vikings 21

Sunday Early Slate

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -7.0

Total: 44.5

Miami's trip to Cleveland couldn't have gone much worse last week. Three interceptions from Tua Tagovailoa. One third-down conversion on 13 attempts. Just 12 first-downs on the day. Eleven penalties for over 100 yards. And ultimately a 31-6 beatdown by a Browns team that hadn't scored more than 17 points in 11 straight games.

Of course, the Dolphins are no strangers to lopsided games, but even by their standards, it was an alarming performance. The Browns' defense showed up, but the offense produced only 206 yards, while Miami did a fairly decent job of limiting Quinshon Judkins (25 carries, 84 yards), who did find the endzone three times.

It's tough to find any true positives for Miami, which still rates out as the worst defense in the NFL by EPA per play. Occasionally, the offense has shown signs of life, but faith in Tua is at an all-time low, and it wouldn't be a shock if the Dolphins opt to take a look at Quinn Ewers at some point.

On the other side, Atlanta is coming off of a predictable letdown in San Francisco on Sunday night. Fresh off of wins over Washington and Buffalo, the Falcons failed to reach 300 yards of offense and let Christian McCaffrey get loose for over 200 yards from scrimmage.

On balance, though, the Falcons' defense has held up well this season and should have plenty of advantages against one of the worst teams in football. Make no mistake: the Falcons could absolutely Falcon this game, but we'll side with Atlanta to ride Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to a bounceback win and cover.

The pick: Falcons 24 – Dolphins 14

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -6.5

Total: 44.5

The Joe Flacco-led Cincinnati Bengals are 6.5-point favorites at home. That can only mean one thing: the New York Jets are in town. 

While I'm still (somewhat) convinced the Jets shouldn't be the NFL's lone winless team, evidence is rapidly mounting to suggest that they are, indeed, that bad. After a lifeless offensive showing in London last week, the Jets managed just six points in another disappointing loss to the Panthers in Week 7. New York's defense has played well enough to keep it in games, but the offense – particularly without Garrett Wilson – has been stuck in the mud for the better part of the last month.

While no decision has officially been announced, the Jets are expected to ride with Tyrod Taylor, who came on in relief of Justin Fields against the Panthers. At this stage in his career, Taylor may not be a massive upgrade, but it's tough to fault the Jets for exploring options beyond Fields. This all assumes, of course, that Taylor is healthy enough to play after he landed on the injury report earlier this week.

With Cincinnati coming off of a wild win over the Steelers, we want to be careful. But if Flacco can continue to pepper Ja'Marr Chase with targets and help open up the running game, this should be a spot where Cincinnati can send the Jets to an 0-8 start.

The pick: Bengals 23 – Jets 17

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -6.5

Total: 49.5

Despite a slew of injuries and a 1-5 start, oddsmakers have been hesitant to completely write off Baltimore. The Ravens are currently 12/1 to win the AFC – the same odds as the 5-2 Patriots, who have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL – and +135 to win the AFC North. Pittsburgh remains a slight favorite (+130), but the Steelers losing in Cincinnati on Thursday night could go a long way toward keeping the door cracked open.

Coming out of a much-needed bye, the Ravens should get some key pieces back on defense. The general expectation is that Lamar Jackson will also return, and his presence at practice Wednesday backs up that notion.

Obviously, the line implies Jackson will be out there, but asking the Ravens to immediately hit the gas and cover a touchdown does feel a little dubious. Even when healthy, the defense was struggling, while the running game hasn't been able to get fully on track since Week 1 in Buffalo.

Meanwhile, the Bears have won four straight and sit at 4-2 for the second year in a row. Chicago's recent surge has been impressive, but it's worth noting that they've won the turnover battle 15-2 in those four victories. The emergence of the Bears' running game, which piled up 222 yards on the Saints last week, will be an interesting test for Baltimore. 

Knowing they have to go on a run, we'll side with the Ravens to win outright, but Chicago can hang around and cover the 6.5.

The pick: Ravens 28 – Bears 24

Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Bills -7.5

Total: 46.5

This will be a big test for the now 4-3 Panthers, who've ripped off three straight wins over the Dolphins, Cowboys and Jets. Maybe it's fair to throw an asterisk on two of those, but Carolina has clearly emerged from the depths of the NFL and moved into "team you have to take seriously" territory. 

The Panthers' running game versus the Bills' porous run defense is the battle to watch here. Carolina piled up 239 and 216 rushing yards in those first two wins before a more modest-yet-effective showing (125 yards) last week in New York. Through six games, the Bills' defense ranks 30th in EPA per rush – thanks in large part to giving up a career game to Bijan Robinson in Week 6, 238 yards to the Ravens in Week 1 and 189 yards to the Saints in Week 4. 

Coming out of a bye, we should expect Buffalo to be healthier and refocused, but this isn't a pushover spot on the road – especially with a showdown against the Chiefs looming in Week 9. The Panthers being without Bryce Young does matter, but Andy Dalton is a more-than-capable backup who may offer a higher floor.

The Panthers' ground game should be able to make this uncomfortable for Buffalo, but we'll ultimately side with the Bills to kick their offense into gear after a pair of disappointing showings. 

The pick: Bills 30 – Panthers 21

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -1.5

Total: 41.0

Houston sits as a slight home favorite, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see this line shift in the Niners' favor by the time we get to Sunday. After a home win over the Falcons on Sunday night, the Niners are somehow 5-2, despite season-ending injuries to Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, as well as Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle all missing time.

The Niners may get Purdy and Pearsall back this week, while Kittle should be more effective after handing fantasy managers a nice 0.0 in Week 7.

On the other side, Houston was able to hang in against Seattle on Monday night in a game marred by turnovers and confusing plays. Houston forced two interceptions – one from Sam Darnold, one from Cooper Kupp – to go with two fumbles, but it still never really felt like the Texans were threatening to win outright. We knew Houston's offensive line would be an issue coming into the season, and it's somehow been even worse than I imagined.

With their backs against the wall at 2-4, this could be the last stand for the Texans. The defense should be able to make this a low-scoring game, but we'll side with the Niners to win outright in what essentially feels like a pick 'em.

The pick: 49ers 20 – Texans 17

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -6.5

Total: 40.5

Fresh off of a dominant win over the Dolphins, dare we say the Browns have a little bit of momentum? We'll find out on Sunday when Cleveland goes up against one of the hottest teams – and quarterbacks – in the NFL. Beginning with a 42-13 beatdown of the Panthers in Week 4, New England has reeled off four straight wins, most recently handling business in Nashville last week.

Four of the Pats' five wins have come over Miami, Carolina, New Orleans and Tennessee – and they did lose to the Raiders – so we need to keep things in perspective. But Maye continues to gain confidence on a weekly basis, and that will be key against a Cleveland defense that will likely be able to contain Rhamondre Stevenson on the ground.

Defensively, the Pats haven't exactly faced a murder's row of quarterbacks, but they shouldn't have to worry too much about Dillon Gabriel beating them with big plays through the air. If the Pats can avoid turnovers – they've turned it over once during this winning streak – and contain Quinshon Judkins, this should be another advantageous spot.

The pick: Patriots 23 – Browns 13

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -7.5

Total: 43.5

As usual, we had a handful of contenders for the Stay-Away of the Week, and I can assure you this was one of them. The Eagles remain one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, while the Giants are coming off of what should have been a massive road win in Denver.

For any Giants fans reading this, we don't need to relive the sequence of events that led to a 33-point, 295-yard fourth quarter for the Broncos, but the question is how the Giants respond to such a crushing defeat. Knowing what we know about Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, we shouldn't expect a major letdown. But this is also the second meeting in three weeks between two NFC East rivals.

New York, of course, dominated the first matchup in Week 6, pulling away in the second half en route to a 34-17 victory behind Skattebo (98 yards, 3 TD) and a defense that forced three points and a turnover on Philly's first four possessions after halftime.

Philly's offense certainly looked much better last week against Minnesota, but the Eagles own that game almost entirely on the arm of Jalen Hurts and a few big plays to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Philly converted only 3-of-10 third downs and made only one trip to the red zone. The fall-off of the running game remains an issue, as Saquon Barkley is averaging just 52.7 yards per game and a meager 3.3 yards per carry. On the season, he's yet to break a run of longer than 20 yards. At this point last year, Barkley had seven runs of 20+, six of 30+, four of 40+ and three of 50+.

Again, this game is firmly in stay-away territory for me. In theory, it should be a rare spot for Philly to issue a reminder to a division foe, but there are enough cracks in the overall product for the Eagles that we have to think twice about it. 

The pick: Eagles 27 – Giants 17

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Bucs -3.5

Total: 46.5

With a Week 9 bye on the horizon, the Bucs play a second straight road game and will again be without Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin, while Mike Evans is set to miss most – if not all – of the regular season.

Tampa Bay came up short in Detroit on Monday night, scoring only nine points in what was pretty easily Baker Mayfield's worst game of the season. On balance, though, Mayfield has been among the best QBs in the league and will have an opportunity to bounce back as a sizable road favorite in New Orleans.

While they sit at 1-6, the Saints have been a tough out on a weekly basis. Despite four turnovers, New Orleans still hung around in Chicago last week, but the Saints managed just 253 yards of offense while allowing the Bears to run for 222 yards as a team.

With the Bucs as banged up as they are, the Saints should be able to keep this game within a touchdown.

The pick: Bucs 28 – Saints 23

Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -3.5

Total: 49.5

We only get three games in the late window, and this is the clear highlight. Frankly, I have no idea what to make of the 5-2 Broncos at this point. After an extremely ugly 13-11 win over the Jets in London, the Broncos' offense did close to nothing for three quarters last week before erupting for 33 points and 295 yards of offense in the fourth quarter. The Giants aided in their own demise, but it was a glimpse of what Denver is capable of when the playbook is opened up.

For the most part, this has not been a banner first half for Bo Nix, but Denver appears content to (attempt to) establish the run and try to nickel and dime their way down the field. That strategy has led them to five wins, but the league's No. 1 defense by success rate deserves much of the credit.

With Dallas coming to town, this should be an opportunity for Payton and Nix to attack what's been the league's worst secondary thus far. On the season, the Cowboys rank 29th in defensive EPA/play, 28th in EPA/rush, 28th in EPA/pass and 31st in success rate.

On the other side of the ball, Dallas has been a top-five offense with a surprisingly effective running game, so slowing down Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens will be a tough task.

This feels like a toss-up game, but we'll ride with Dallas to pull off the SU road upset.

The pick: Cowboys 29 – Broncos 27

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -14.0

Total: 46.5

We're going to keep this one pretty simple. The Titans are either the worst or second-worst team in the NFL. They've already lost to the Colts, in Nashville, 41-10 back in Week 3. I remain intrigued by Cam Ward's future potential, but this is an extremely poor offense and one of the least-talented overall rosters in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Colts are No. 1 in the NFL in EPA, success rate, EPA per rush and second in EPA per pass. Through seven weeks, they're also putting up the highest points-per-drive of any team over the last 25-plus seasons.

Regression is (probably? maybe?) coming for the Colts at some point, but not here.

The pick: Colts 34 – Titans 17

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Packers -3.0

Total: 44.5

The entire Sunday slate leads us into the biggest game of the week, as Aaron Rodgers faces the Packers for the first time in an opposing uniform. Unfortunately, this will be said uniform:

The Packers will counter with their all-white look, for those who care about these things:

Rodgers going up against his former team obviously carries plenty of intrigue, but from a pure football perspective, I'm curious to see how the Steelers' defense holds up against a well-rounded Green Bay attack. The Steelers were completely picked apart by Joe Flacco last week, but more concerning was the fact that the Bengals were able to run the ball – with great success, in fact – for the first time all season.

Quietly, the Steelers' defense has been nowhere near its usual level this season. Through six games, it rates out as simply an average-to-below-average unit. This should be a spot for the Packers to get Josh Jacobs going. He's having a fine season, but his YPC has dropped from 4.4 last season to 3.7 this season, and explosive plays have been few and far between.

Pittsburgh has the rest advantage, Mike Tomlin is a home dog, Aaron Rodgers is a vengeful man. I get it. But I think this is a good matchup for the Packers, who could get Devonte Wyatt, Lukas Van Ness and Christian Watson back this week.

The pick: Packers 27 – Steelers 21

Monday Night Football

Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -11.5

Total: 47.5

We finish out with a Monday Night game that looked significantly more appealing a few weeks ago than it does now. The Chiefs have done their part to climb out of an early hole, but the Commanders enter this game at 3-4 and without Jayden Daniels, who will miss his third game of the season.

Kansas City is coming off of a colossal beatdown of the Raiders in Week 7. The score was only 31-0, but KC called off the dogs by the end of the third quarter and went well out of its way to not score for the final 15 minutes. By the end of the afternoon, the Chiefs out-gained the Raiders 434-95, held the ball for 42:08, and limited the Raiders to just 30 offensive plays and only three first downs. Only one team in NFL history – the 1999 Cleveland Browns – ran fewer plays in a game (28). The last team to have three first downs or fear in a game? The 2008 Raiders.

Even with Daniels, this was going to be an uphill battle for Washington. Marcus Mariota is a capable backup, but with injuries at wide receiver and a regressing Commanders defense, the Chiefs have to be the play here.

The pick: Chiefs 28 – Commanders 14