Beating the Book: NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of Beating the Book, where we hand out NFL picks against the spread for every game, every week.

Week 6 was a bit of a slog for us, as we got off to a rough start on Thursday night and carried that lack of momentum into the early window. By the end of the noon games, we were sitting at 2-7 ATS before making a bit of a run in the late window. Even so, a 6-9 ATS mark is not what we were looking for, and the Commanders committing three turnovers – including a game-losing fumble late in the fourth quarter – was, fittingly, the final kick in the teeth for a subpar week.

As always, we press on and turn the page to a 15-game NFL Week 7 betting slate. The Bills and Ravens are the lone teams on bye. As of publication, the Chiefs, who get Rashee Rice back from suspension, are easily the biggest favorite on the board, laying 11.5 at home against the divisional-rival Raiders.

New England – AFC East-leading New England, that is – is a sizable favorite in Tennessee, while the Packers are also hefty road favorites in Arizona. Denver, meanwhile, is laying close to a touchdown at home against the Giants.

You can find my thoughts on those games, and the entire Week 7 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 6:

• Falcons +4.5 vs. Bills: You're never going to be fully comfortable backing the Falcons against a good team, but Atlanta came out hot following a bye and piled up 335 yards of offense in the first half. 
• Seahawks +1.5 at Jaguars: The Jags were riding high off of a big Monday night win over KC, but this was an obvious fade spot for a team that's good but nowhere near great.

Worst calls of Week 6:

• Eagles -6.5 at Giants: We took the bait on this being an obvious bounceback spot for Philly, which never truly looked like the better team in an embarrassing beatdown.
• Browns +6.5 at Steelers: We knew this was an all-time bad spot for the Browns, but what we did not expect was 52 pass attempt from Dillon Gabriel – and just 12 carries for Quinshon Judkins.

Last week: 6-9 ATS; 10-5 SU; best bet lost (IND -7.0)

On the season: 49-42-2 ATS; 60-32-1 SU; 4-2 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Steelers -5.5

Total: 44.0

The Steelers sit at 4-1 after a convincing win over Cleveland coming out of their bye week. While Pittsburgh isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard on a weekly basis, it's done nothing but take care of business during this three-game winning streak, which also includes victories over New England and Minnesota.

The Steelers should be in a good spot to do that again this week against a Bengals team that's dropped four straight and failed to score a first-half touchdown in any of those games. While the Bengals did cover at home against Green Bay, they were out-gained 409 to 268 and still have no semblance of a running game.

If the Steelers can take care of the ball and avoid any game-flipping mistakes, they should be able to bleed out the limited Bengals, but I'm not sure I trust Pittsburgh to score enough to cover the 5.5. It's already been a season from hell for Cincy, but Joe Flacco has enough weaponry to pull off another backdoor cover.

The pick: Steelers 21 – Bengals 17

Sunday NFL London Game

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Rams -2.5

Total: 44.5

After treating our friends across the pond to Vikings-Browns and Broncos-Jets – two of the worst football games in recent memory – the last two weeks, fans in London finally get to see what should be a respectable matchup. We'll see if I eat those words.

Unlike the last few years, Jacksonville will play just one London game before heading into its Week 8 bye. The same goes for LA, which will have an interesting call to make on Puka Nacua. The superstar receiver exited last week's ugly win over the Ravens with an ankle injury and is considered "day-to-dday," according to Sean McVay. It's certainly possible Nacua could try to push through, but with the bye looming, the Rams could play it safe and give him two-plus weeks to fully recover.

Either way, the Rams have looked far from elite over the last two weeks, losing outright as a big home favorite against the banged-up 49ers before slogging their way through a 17-3 win against the even-more-banged-up Ravens in Week 6. While LA ultimately covered, the Rams were out-gained by Baltimore and may have been in danger of a second straight upset had the Ravens not committed three crushing turnovers. 

Nacua's status is the major variable, but the Jags will be without Devin Lloyd, who's enjoying a breakout season, plus Brenton Strange. Beyond that, the Jags' offensive line, which got off to an excellent start, has crumbled in recent weeks, including a ridiculous 39 pressures allowed in last week's loss to Seattle.

Jacksonville's comfortability in London tends to play to their favor, but we'll side with the Rams to get after Trevor Lawrence and just cover the number.

The pick: Rams 24 – Jaguars 21

Sunday Early Slate

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -5.5

Total: 47.0

The 3-2 Bears earned a solid win on Monday night in Washington on the back of three massive Commanders turnovers, including Jayden Daniels fumbling the game away late in the fourth quarter. While the Bears caught some breaks, credit to Chicago for racking up over 380 yards of offense – and 6.5 yards per play – on what's been a very up-and-down Commanders defense.

Chicago now returns home as a 5.5-point favorite – its biggest number since Week 10 of last season, when the Bears were laying 6.5 at home against New England. The Bears ended up losing that game outright, 19-3.

While I'm buying in on the Ben Johnson offense, I'm also buying in on the Saints as a tough out every single week. They failed to cover at home against New England, but the defense was able to buckle down after some early lapses, holding the Pats to just a field goal in the second half. Offensively, New Orleans remains limited, but Spencer Rattler continues to play clean football and has developed a reliable connection with Chris Olave.

We'll take the Bears to win outright, but the Saints can keep this within a score.

The pick: Bears 25 – Saints 21

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -2.5

Total: 40.5

This has Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week written all over it. We're going to hold off on that for now, but the Browns sitting as 2.5-point favorites – even at home; even against the Dolphins – is a bit alarming.

I expected a better effort out of the Browns in Week 6. The game never got out of hand, but Cleveland going with the Short Pass Raid offense, and handing the ball to Quinshon Judkins only 12 times, was a questionable choice. For the second straight game, Dillon Gabriel did not commit a turnover, but he did take six sacks and had just one pass that went for more than 14 yards. At the end of the day, the Browns ran 75 plays but were unable to get to 250 total yards (3.3 YPP). 

As limited as Cleveland is, offensively, I think we see the Browns re-commit to the run against the worst rush defense in the NFL. If the defense can force a Tua Tagovailoa turnover or two, Cleveland can pull out a home win. The U40.5 is my favorite play here, especially given the weather forecast.

The pick: Browns 20 – Dolphins 17

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -11.5

Total: 45.5

Easily our biggest favorite of the week, the Chiefs will get Rashee Rice back for a home matchup against the 2-4 Raiders. Kansas City's offense had already been trending in the right direction, and the return of Rice could push the passing game to a new level.

Entering Week 7, Patrick Mahomes is back atop the MVP odds board and leads an offense that ranks ninth in EPA per pass, third in success rate and third in total EPA. Over the last three games, KC has put up 30, 28 and 37 points. A season ago, it wasn't until the AFC Championship Game that Kansas City scored more than 30 in any game. 

You can probably sense my optimism for the Chiefs, who will likely get Rice heavily involved right away. For a number of reasons, this profiles as a bad matchup for the Raiders. Vegas can't run the ball consistently, while Geno Smith has mostly struggled since a promising Week 1 against New England. The defense hasn't been a total disaster, but the schedule may have a hand in that. In the Raiders' two games against top-10 offenses (Washington and Indy), Vegas lost by a combined score of 81 to 30. Washington, for what it's worth, was without Jayden Daniels in that Week 3 matchup.

Asking any team to cover a big number has been dicey this season, but this should be a smash spot for Kansas City, even if the Raiders have historically played the Chiefs tough.

The pick: Chiefs 34 – Raiders 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Eagles -1.5

Total: 43.5

Tricky game to evaluate with the Eagles seemingly spiraling and Minnesota coming out of its bye week with a mini QB controversy. As of publication, it's unclear whether J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz will get the starting nod, and we may not have an official answer until closer to Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Eagles blew a two-score lead against Denver in Week 5 and followed up with a borderline-alarming performance against the Giants on Thursday night. It's one thing for the Eagles to slip up, but that game devolved into a thorough beatdown by New York, which held Philly scoreless in the second half and ran for 172 yards. The absence of Jalen Carter was a major factor, and the hope is that Carter is able to return this week.

With a fairly difficult remaining schedule, this feels like a major inflection point for the Eagles. Traditionally, this team has bounced back well under Nick Sirianni, but it won't be easy on the road against a strong defense with extra time to prepare.

Given the Vikings' quarterback situation, we'll side with Philly to pull out a much-needed road win, but this is firmly in stay-away territory for me.

The pick: Eagles 23 – Vikings 20

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets

Spread: Panthers -1.5

Total: 41.5

The Browns are favored and the Panthers are a road favorite in the same week. I suppose that's what happens when the NFL's lone winless team pops up on the schedule. So badly, I want to believe the Jets are better than their record, but each and every week they make a concerted effort to find a way to lose a winnable game.

The latest Jets atrocity came in London on Sunday morning, where the Jets failed to score a touchdown – and also failed to even reach the red zone – and finished with 82 yards of total offense in what was the ugliest game of the year, to date. Credit to the Jets' defense, I guess, for holding Denver to just 13 points and 4.3 yards per play, but Justin Fields was unable to take advantage of opportunity after opportunity.

In the second half, the Broncos' offensive possessions went as such: 3-and-out, safety, 3-and-out, 3-and-out, field goal, 3-and-out. The Jets turned those stops into zero points (not counting the safety) and 20 – twenty – total yards of offense, while Fields was sacked nine times. To make matters worse, the Jets' only reliable pass-catcher, Garrett Wilson, emerged from the game with a hyperextended knee that's likely to sideline him for multiple weeks.

Even without Wilson, the Jets will likely put together a better showing this week, by default, but we're going to roll with the red-hot Panthers to find a way to get to 4-3. Very quietly, the Panthers' offense is up to 10th in the NFL in success rate and fourth in EPA per rush.

The pick: Panthers 24 – Jets 20

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Patriots -6.5

Total: 41.5

This is a second straight road game for New England, which has now won three in a row over Carolina, Buffalo and New Orleans. With the Bills losing outright on Monday night, the Pats are now in first place in the AFC East with the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.

In terms of teams you want to see on the schedule, the Titans are near the top of the list, but we at least have an interesting wrinkle with Tennessee parting ways with Brian Callahan on Monday.

Could we see a fabled post-firing bounce for Tennessee? Maybe. It's possible. The Titans played close to an even game against Vegas last week, holding the Raiders to just 226 yards of total offense and 4.0 yards per play. As has often been the case this season, turnovers were the difference, as Cam Ward threw a pick and lost two fumbles, while Geno Smith was miraculously only picked off once.

Even with New England rolling right now, I don't expect this game to be a total pushover. Tennessee has a solid run defense and has been able to hang in with superior competition for at least stretches within each game.

We'll still side with the Pats to take care of business in the type of spot where a truly good team doesn't get tripped up.

The pick: Patriots 27 – Titans 17

Sunday Afternoon Slate

New York Giants at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -6.5

Total: 40.5

We kick off the late window with what could be a sneaky-fun game out in Denver. The Broncos are coming off of a disastrous win, if there is such a thing, against the Jets in London – a game Denver won entirely on the defensive end. The Broncos scored just one touchdown on the day and did almost nothing offensively in the second half.

Luckily, what may be the NFL's best defense sacked Justin Fields nine times and held the Jets to the seventh-lowest yards per play game (1.4)  in the last 25 years and the 10th-lowest NET yards game (82) during that same span. The Broncos' defense is now responsible for the two lowest YPP games of the season (Week 1 vs. TEN) and leads the league with 30 sacks – 10 more than the next-highest team (Steelers).

The Giants are 2-1 in their last three, sandwiching an ugly loss to the Saints between two impressive wins over the Chargers and Eagles. It's still too early to know which version of Jaxson Dart will show up, but the Denver defense should be able to get after Dart and force him to use his legs even more than he might want to.

Even after coming back from London without a bye, we like Denver to win the game outright, but the cover will come down to which version of the Denver offense shows up. Thus far, Bo Nix hasn't taken a notable step forward, and last week's effort – 246 total yards; 4.3 YPP – was far from encouraging.

Don't be surprised if the Giants make this interesting, but we'll eat the chalk and side with Denver to win by a touchdown.

The pick: Broncos 24 – Giants 17

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -1.5

Total: 48.5

Washington-Dallas may have more fireworks, but this is the most interesting game in the late window. The Colts survived a surprisingly live Cardinals team last week, failing to cover as 9.0-point favorites but ultimately winning outright thanks to a late defensive stand.

Offensively, the league's highest-scoring team kept it rolling, but Indy gave up 400 yards of total offense to the Cards, including 320 passing yards and two touchdowns to Jacoby Briissett. Arizona converted 9-of-14 third-down attempts and went score-for-score with Indy until that final possession. Behind a revitalized Daniel Jones, the Colts' offense looks like it's here to stay, but the defense has shown some cracks, ranking 26th in opponent success rate.

What I'm curious to see is whether the Chargers can become the third team in the last four weeks to reach 400 yards of offense on that Indy D. Frankly, I'm not sure what to make of the Chargers right now. After a red-hot start, they dropped back-to-back games to the Giants and Commanders before nearly blowing a second straight double-digit lead to the Dolphins last week. Credit the Chargers for driving down to set up the game-winning field goal, but it was at least slightly alarming that, despite three Tua Tagovailoa interceptions, LA was trailing with under a minute left.

Something to keep an eye on in this game is the red zone success. Indy is far and away the best red zone team in football, converting touchdowns at a 65% clip. The Colts are also No. 1 in total red zone drives thus far, as well as overall score percentage (61.1% of drives) and yards per drive (40.6).

Meanwhile, LA has also been strong on a per-drive basis, but the Chargers are dead-last in red zone conversion rate (35%), scoring a touchdown on just 7-of-20 trips thus far. For perspective, both the Jets and Browns have more red zone touchdowns on far fewer attempts. 

Perhaps that's simply a flukey, early-season trend, but it'll be something to monitor – particularly on the Chargers side. We'll take the Colts to win outright and build on their lead in the AFC South.

Uniform note:

The pick: Colts 29 – Chargers 26

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Packers -6.5

Total: 44.5

As noted above, the Cardinals had plenty of success last week despite Kyler Murray sitting out with a foot injury. As of publication, it's unclear if Murray will be able to return in Week 7, but there seems to be a fairly decent chance that Arizona rolls out Jacoby Brissett for a second straight week. Meanwhile, Marvin Harrison Jr. remains in concussion protocol and is considered questionable. 

On the Packers side, Green Bay now sits at 3-1-1 SU but just 2-3 ATS with three straight ATS losses, including a SU loss to Cleveland and The Tie against Dallas. On a weekly basis, the Packers have become a maddening watch. Usually, they do just enough to win comfortably against teams they should beat, but nothing more.

Green Bay piled up 409 yards of offense and 6.8 yards per play last week but turned that into only 27 points, at home, against one of the worst defenses in football. A Jordan Love interception on the first possession of the game took points off the board, but more frustrating yet is the Packers' reliance on conservative play-calling when this offense is so clearly capable of hitting more big plays. 

I can whine all I want, but at the end of the day, Green Bay scored on its final three possessions and ultimately held the Bengals scoreless for the first 40 minutes. Blowouts shouldn't be the expectation, but it just feels like the Packers should be doing more after the upside they flashed in Weeks 1 and 2.

Anyway, I like the Packers to go into Arizona and win, and we'll even take them to cover for the first time since Week 2.

The pick: Packers 28 – Cardinals 21

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Commanders -2.0

Total: 55.5

At long last, we  have our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. When I say this is a stay-away, I mean that strictly from an ATS betting perspective. By all means, I encourage you to go wild on player props. There's a reason this total is up to 55.5

Both teams are coming off of bad losses in Week 6. Dallas fell on the road to Carolina, while the Commanders, quite literally, fumbled away what should have been a home win over the Bears. Even so, the Commanders' defense, which held up so well against the Chargers last week, was a disaster for much of the night, surrendering multiple big plays and 6.5 yards per play to Caleb Williams and Co.

Dallas is more than capable of piling up points on anyone, but the Dallas defense is equally liable to give up 40 on a weekly basis. This is nothing new, but we're a third of the way through the season and Dallas ranks 31st in EPA per play, 31st in success rate, 32nd in EPA/pass and 27th in EPA/rush.

Both teams have some injury question marks coming into the week. Dallas is still banged up on the offensive line but may get CeeDee Lamb back. Meanwhile, Washington is down a starting guard and could again be without two of its top three receivers in Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown.

As is the case with every Stay-Away of the Week, this is a total toss up. We'll side with the Cowboys to win a shootout as a slight home dog.

The pick: Cowboys 41 – Commanders 37

Sunday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -2.0

Total: 47.0

Back-to-back primetime slots for the Falcons, who are coming off of a massive win over the Bills at home on Monday night. Atlanta piled up 335 yards of offense in the first half alone then failed to score in the second half, giving the Bills opportunity after opportunity to come back and win the game. But in very un-Falcons-like fashion, Atlanta's defense was able to lock down Josh Allen, forcing a late interception to seal the game after back-to-back three-and-outs by Buffalo.

Through five games, the Falcons defense ranks fifth in EPA/play and fourth in EPA/pass, while holding all five of its opponents under 160 passing yards.

Undoubtedly, it was a massive win for the Falcons, but Atlanta is still far from entering the circle of trust. The 30-0 loss to Carolina, alone, may take several months of quality football to fully erase. Either way, the Penix-to-London connection is firing on all cylinders right now, while Bijan Robinson has looked the part of the best running back in football.

On the other side, injuries continue to pile up for San Francisco, which can add Fred Warner to the laundry list of key injuries. Even without Warner (and Nick Bosa and Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk), the Niners put up a solid fight in Tampa Bay but were unable to overcome two killer interceptions from Mac Jones.

The good news is Purdy and Kittle could each return this week, which would obviously provide a massive boost to an offense that's been able to stay afloat even without so many key pieces. We'll have to closely monitor the injury report throughout the week, but if the Niners get their pieces back, they'll be the pick at home. 

This has the potential to be a true statement win for Atlanta, though.

The pick: 49ers 27 – Falcons 24

Monday Night Football Doubleheader

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -5.0

Total: 52.5

We have yet another two-pack of Monday night games this week, although this time it's actually a true double-header. Apologies to those on the east coast – the second game will kick off at 10pm ET – but for those of us in Central Time, this is how life should be. A solid six hours worth of quality football.

Anyway, this is a tough game to evaluate with notable injuries on both sides. For the second straight season, Detroit's defensive backfield is decimated, while Brian Branch will serve a one-game suspension for his role in a postgame mini-brawl on Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Bucs could be down their top three receivers – plus Bucky Irving – after Emeka Egbuka picked up a hamstring injury in Week 6. 

Tampa Bay has weathered the injury storm as well as anyone, but even if Mike Evans is back this week, asking Baker Mayfield to win at Detroit will be a tall task. Even with a withered supporting cast, I fully expect the Bucs to make this a close game, but we'll lean on Detroit to bounce back at home following a disappointing SU loss. Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have covered 11 games in a row off of a SU loss.

The pick: Lions 33 – Buccaneers 27

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -3.5

Total: 41.5

Fun game to conclude Week 7 between a Texans team coming off of a bye and a Seahawks team that's climbed to No. 1 in the NFL in overall DVOA.

Seattle is coming off of a solid win as a dog in Jacksonville, and the Seahawks' pass rush is looking like one of the three best in the league. Houston, of course, is excellent on that side of the ball, as well – particularly against the pass.

This is somewhat of a toss-up game for me, but I do like the U41.5. The Texans should be able to slow down the Sam Darnold-Jaxon Smith-Njigba connection, while the Seattle pass rush will have advantages against a porous Houston offensive line. Through five games, Houston has only reached the red zone 11 times and has converted just 21-of-60 third-down attempts. 

Houston's win over the Ravens was convincing, but given the circumstances I'm not sure it's really a strong data point. 

The pick: Seahawks 20 – Texans 17