| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | 49ers | 38.60% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 6.57 |
| JAGUARS | Jets | 19.70% | 330 | 76.74 | 4.58 |
| PACKERS | Bills | 18.60% | 462.5 | 82.22 | 3.31 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 5.30% | 290 | 74.36 | 1.36 |
| RAMS | Vikings | 3.90% | 275 | 73.33 | 1.04 |
| FALCONS | Bengals | 3.00% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.91 |
| Seahawks | CARDINALS | 2.00% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.77 |
| Eagles | TITANS | 1.60% | 190 | 65.52 | 0.55 |
| Chiefs | BRONCOS | 1.60% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.50 |
| RAIDERS | Browns | 1.20% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.52 |
| Saints | GIANTS | 1.10% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.42 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
The Bills pulled off the upset last week, but the Packers won't sleep on them, especially after coming off a loss themselves. As along as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, the Packers should roll. The Packers are also relatively low-owned given their odds. I give them an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week, the Jaguars went into a shell against the Titans, and it cost them. This week, they draw the Jets, and I don't expect them to repeat the mistake. Moreover, this is a
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | 49ers | 38.60% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 6.57 |
| JAGUARS | Jets | 19.70% | 330 | 76.74 | 4.58 |
| PACKERS | Bills | 18.60% | 462.5 | 82.22 | 3.31 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 5.30% | 290 | 74.36 | 1.36 |
| RAMS | Vikings | 3.90% | 275 | 73.33 | 1.04 |
| FALCONS | Bengals | 3.00% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.91 |
| Seahawks | CARDINALS | 2.00% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.77 |
| Eagles | TITANS | 1.60% | 190 | 65.52 | 0.55 |
| Chiefs | BRONCOS | 1.60% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.50 |
| RAIDERS | Browns | 1.20% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.52 |
| Saints | GIANTS | 1.10% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.42 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
The Bills pulled off the upset last week, but the Packers won't sleep on them, especially after coming off a loss themselves. As along as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, the Packers should roll. The Packers are also relatively low-owned given their odds. I give them an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week, the Jaguars went into a shell against the Titans, and it cost them. This week, they draw the Jets, and I don't expect them to repeat the mistake. Moreover, this is a tough draw for Sam Darnold in his fourth ever start. I give the Jaguars a 79 percent chance to win this game.
3. New England Patriots
The Patriots have lost two straight and face the undefeated Dolphins, but I expect them to bounce back at home. The Dolphins wins were over the Titans, Jets and Raiders, and they relied on trick plays and Derek Carr interceptions to get through last week. I give the Patriots a 76 percent chance to win this game.
4. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers should beat up on the C.J. Beathard 49ers, but keep in mind Joey Bosa is still out, and the Kyle Shanahan system might keep this close with running plays and short throws. Still, the talent disparity is wide here. The Chargers are 39 percent owned, which makes them my fourth choice despite having a 78 percent chance to win this game.
5. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are the best team in the NFL, but they're missing both starting corners, and the Vikings, though erratic so far, are still a dangerous team. I give the Rams a 73 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Atlanta Falcons - I like the Falcons at home, but the Bengals are a tough team and could easily keep this close
Kansas City Chiefs - I'd avoid them as road dogs against a division rival on a Monday night game.
Philadelphia Eagles - Carson Wentz appears to be all the way back, but the Eagles aren't in sync yet, and the Titans look good defensively.
