Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes
25-Year-Old QuarterbackQB
Kansas City Chiefs
2021 Fantasy Outlook
It's too bad Mahomes sat out Week 17 last year because he likely would have gotten to 5,000 passing yards and 40 TD passes had he played. To put that in perspective, 5,000 and 40 has been done six times in NFL history, and only one QB has done it twice (Drew Brees). Mahomes would have done it twice in his first three years as a starter. He led the league in passing yards per game last season (316.0), but he's not simply a product of volume (5th in attempts) — he ranked fourth in average target depth at 9.0. He's in the perfect system to exploit his arm strength and play-making ability, and he rarely makes mistakes — with six interceptions on 588 attempts, his 1.0 INT percentage tied for the league lead (Aaron Rodgers). While his completion percentage on downfield attempts was a three-year low (66.3), he made the completions count, leading the league in TD pass rate on attempts of 20-plus yards (16.9 percent) and tying Rodgers with an NFL-high 12 downfield TD passes. Defenses can't blitz him much (32nd of 35 QBs in blitz rate) because he'll make them pay. He was the only QB without an interception vs. the blitz (min. 65 attempts), while throwing 12 TD passes. He's also lethal on the move. Outside the pocket, he tied Russell Wilson with a league-high 13 TD passes and was one of two QBs with at least 65 attempts and no interceptions (Lamar Jackson). His supporting cast is among the best in the league with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And Mecole Hardman, who has 4.33 speed, could get more targets this year with Sammy Watkins gone. It's no surprise Mahomes is the betting favorite (5/1) for NFL MVP. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#26.2
ADP
$Signed a 10-year, $450 million contract with the Chiefs in July of 2020.
Taking full reps in OTAs
QBKansas City Chiefs
May 27, 2021
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Thursday that Mahomes (toe) has been a "full go" in practice during the past week of OTAs, Herbie Teope of The Kansas City Star reports.
ANALYSIS
Mahomes sat out Thursday's session, but his absence was apparently a pre-planned maintenance day as part of his recovery program from offseason toe surgery. The quarterback is clearly ahead of schedule in his rehab, and the fact that he hasn't been restricted in practices this spring suggests he'll head into training camp with few limitations, if any. After Mahomes was under siege throughout the Chiefs' loss to the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV, Kansas City has made upgrading the offensive line a top priority in the offseason. In addition to getting stalwart right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif back after he opted out of the 2020 season, Kansas City signed left guard Joe Thuney to a five-year, $80 million deal and acquired left tackle Orlando Brown via trade with Baltimore.
Read More News
NFL Stats
Loading NFL Stats...
Fantasy/Red Zone Stats
See red zone opportunities inside the 20, 10 and 5-yard lines along with the percentage of time they converted the opportunity into a touchdown.
Loading Fantasy/Red Zone Stats...
Advanced NFL Stats
How do Patrick Mahomes' 2020 advanced stats compare to other quarterbacks?
This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.
  • Bad Pass %
    The percentage of passes that were considered to be poorly thrown.
  • Avg Target Depth
    The average number of yards thrown per pass by the quarterback – including incomplete passes.
  • Sack Rate
    The percentage of dropbacks where the quartback was sacked. The longer the bar below, the more often they are sacked relative to other QBs.
  • Avg Receiver YAC
    The average number of yards after the catch that receivers gained on passes thrown by this quarterback.
  • Receiver Drop %
    The percentage of passes dropped by receivers on passes thrown by this quarterback. The longer the bar, the more sure-handed his receivers have been.
Bad Pass %
17.5%
 
Avg Target Depth
9.0 Yds
 
Sack Rate
3.6%
 
Avg Receiver YAC
5.9 Yds
 
Receiver Drop %
6.0%
 
Loading Advanced NFL Stats...
2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 NFL Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
Standard
PPR
Half PPR
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Game Log...
2019 NFL Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
Standard
PPR
Half PPR
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Game Log...
2018 NFL Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
Standard
PPR
Half PPR
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Game Log...
2017 NFL Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
Standard
PPR
Half PPR
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
Loading Game Log...
Snap Distribution / Depth Chart
Snap Counts
Snap %
Kansas City ChiefsChiefs 2020 QB Snap Distribution See more data like this | See last season's snap counts
P.Patrick Mahomes
#% of Team Snaps

114087%
957%
Loading Weekly Snap Counts...
2020 Patrick Mahomes Split Stats
Loading NFL Split Stats...
Measurables Review View College Player Page
How do Patrick Mahomes' measurables compare to other quarterbacks?
This section compares his draft workout metrics with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average.
Height
6' 3"
 
Weight
230 lbs
 
40-Yard Dash
4.80 sec
 
Shuttle Time
4.08 sec
 
Cone Drill
6.88 sec
 
Vertical Jump
30.0 in
 
Broad Jump
114 in
 
Hand Length
9.25 in
 
Arm Length
33.25 in
 
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Patrick Mahomes
Dynasty Watch: Rookie Top 75
48 days ago
Travis Etienne probably can't catch fellow first-round running back Najee Harris in redraft rankings, but in dynasty leagues it's a very different question.
NFL Draft: Day 1 Fantasy Fallout
53 days ago
John McKechnie breaks down the fantasy impact from Round 1. Najee Harris has a clear path to a workhorse role in Pittsburgh, but could other factors within the Steelers offense lower his ceiling?
NFL Draft: McKechnie Mock 1.0
57 days ago
John McKechnie submits his first mock of draft week with a run-through the first round. The Mac Jones to San Francisco rumors are getting louder and louder, but is it just an elaborate smokescreen?
Payne's Perspective: Players to Target
79 days ago
Kevin Payne discusses the upcoming season and players he intends to target in fantasy drafts. Find out why he's high on Tua Tagovailoa.
Best Ball Journal: Superflex TE Premium Draft
119 days ago
Trevor Lawrence may be a rookie but his upside is substantial and his starting role is all but assured, leading the writer to select Lawrence as his QB2 in the third round.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
It didn't take an expert to predict Mahomes would regress from his otherworldly 50/5,000 season of 2018, but Mahomes still had a remarkable season last year. Namely, he was even more lethal downfield last season than in 2018, leading the league in passer rating, touchdowns and TD percentage (min. 30 attempts) on throws longer than 20 yards. He improved his TD rate by 6.6 percentage points (12.2 to 18.8) on deep throws, and his rating jumped by nearly 30 points as he cut his interceptions from sixth most (7) to sixth fewest (2). Overall, Mahomes had 96 fewer attempts thanks to a dislocated knee that cost him two and a half games. Prorated to the 580 attempts he had in 2018, he'd still approach 5,000 yards. The biggest regression was in touchdown passes, largely because of his performance in the red zone. His red-zone TD pass rate fell from 36.5 percent to 19.6, his TD passes from 35 to 11. Considering the league rate last year was 23.2 percent, a healthy Mahomes should do better near the goal line this season. Mahomes also has perhaps the league's best collection of skill players, including a trio of speedy wideouts in Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman, while tight end Travis Kelce kills defenders underneath and up the seam. The Chiefs also added first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, considered the best receiving back in this year's draft. And, of course, aggressive play caller Andy Reid is always willing to take shots and chuck the ball around. In two seasons as starter, Mahomes has a league MVP and a Super Bowl MVP. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he wins either — or both — again this season.
Entering last season, the question in Kansas City was less about Mahomes' NFL aptitude than whether coach Andy Reid would truly open the offense or play it cautious with his first-year starter. Well, Reid went for broke, and the cannon-armed Mahomes made it pay off. He threw a league-high 80 passes longer than 20 yards, accounting for 13.8 percent of his attempts (most among QBs with at least 450 passes), and led the league with 10 TDs on those throws. Mahomes also ranked second in YPA (8.8) and sixth in average target depth (9.2). Easily the MVP, he became the second QB in NFL history after Peyton Manning (2013) to pass for 5,000-plus yards and 50 touchdowns, his 8.6 TD percentage the highest since Aaron Rodgers in 2011 (9.0). With Tyreek Hill available for the start of the 2019 campaign, things are looking rosy again for the Chiefs offense. Hill was Mahomes' favorite deep target last season, catching a league-high eight passes of 40-plus yards. Next up are the oft-injured Sammy Watkins and second-round pick Mecole Hardman. Both have questions, but both are fast enough (4.33 40 for Hardman) to stretch the field. The almost-uncoverable Travis Kelce is a constant, and the backfield is led by Damien Williams, who shined after Hunt exited, and free-agent addition Carlos Hyde. Regression is inevitable - Mahomes is not likely to outpace the No. 2 QB by four fantasy points per game again - but in Reid's offense it shouldn't be crippling.
The Patrick Mahomes era begins this year in Kansas City after the team traded Alex Smith to the Redskins in the offseason. Mahomes was decent in his lone start Week 17 last season, but the bigger question this year is what the Chiefs offense will look like. Coach Andy Reid took the cautious approach with Smith his first four years in Kansas City, averaging a mere 32 passes per season more than 20 yards downfield. Last year, though, Smith was unleashed, attempting 53 such passes in an explosive offense. (Ironically, he had fewer interceptions (5) than he averaged over the "cautious" period (7).) Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is gone, replaced by Eric Bieniemy, but either way, it's still Reid's show. The 6-2, 225-pound Mahomes certainly has the arm for a vertical game. And he has plenty of weapons, starting with Tyreek Hill, who might be the league's fastest man. On the other side is new arrival Sammy Watkins, who can also stretch the field and has a bit more bulk than Hill. Then there's Travis Kelce, one of the best tight ends in football, and Kareem Hunt, who led the league in rushing as a rookie last year. All that talent might encourage Reid to be more aggressive, rather than content to ask little of Mahomes besides taking care of the ball. If Mahomes' inner gunslinger is allowed to emerge, drafting the unproven quarterback will pay off for fantasy owners.
The Chiefs traded up 17 spots to 10th overall to draft Mahomes, whose cannon arm, occasional recklessness and gunslinger mentality evoked comparisons on draft day to head coach Andy Reid's former student, Brett Favre. Mahomes, of course, is a long way from Favre, so Reid and the Chiefs view him as a project -- Alex Smith will start for at least another year. At 6-2, 225, with 4.8 speed, Mahomes probably won't be a huge rushing threat but should be fast enough to escape pressure and make occasional plays with his feet. The biggest knock on him is the Texas Tech system, which continually fails to produce quality NFL quarterbacks. But Mahomes has the size, athleticism and physical skills to not only buck the trend but end up as the best quarterback from this year's draft class.
More Fantasy News
Ahead of schedule in rehab
QBKansas City Chiefs
Toe
May 21, 2021
Mahomes (toe) is ahead of schedule in his rehab and is expected to participate in offseason OTAs, James Palmer of NFL Network reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Getting closer to full strength
QBKansas City Chiefs
Toe
April 19, 2021
Mahomes has regained flexibility in his left toe, James Palmer of NFL Network reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Sheds walking boot
QBKansas City Chiefs
Toe
April 8, 2021
Mahomes (toe) was pictured attending the Masters Tournament without a walking boot Thursday, James Palmer of NFL Network reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Restructuring to save cap
QBKansas City Chiefs
Toe
March 12, 2021
The Chiefs are expected to convert Mahomes' (toe) roster bonus into a signing bonus, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
On track for camp
QBKansas City Chiefs
Toe
March 1, 2021
Mahomes (toe) should need about three months to recover from Feb. 10 surgery to repair a torn plantar plate in his left foot, James Palmer of NFL Network reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.