Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes
24-Year-Old QuarterbackQB
Kansas City Chiefs
2020 Fantasy Outlook
It didn't take an expert to predict Mahomes would regress from his otherworldly 50/5,000 season of 2018, but Mahomes still had a remarkable season last year. Namely, he was even more lethal downfield last season than in 2018, leading the league in passer rating, touchdowns and TD percentage (min. 30 attempts) on throws longer than 20 yards. He improved his TD rate by 6.6 percentage points (12.2 to 18.8) on deep throws, and his rating jumped by nearly 30 points as he cut his interceptions from sixth most (7) to sixth fewest (2). Overall, Mahomes had 96 fewer attempts thanks to a dislocated knee that cost him two and a half games. Prorated to the 580 attempts he had in 2018, he'd still approach 5,000 yards. The biggest regression was in touchdown passes, largely because of his performance in the red zone. His red-zone TD pass rate fell from 36.5 percent to 19.6, his TD passes from 35 to 11. Considering the league rate last year was 23.2 percent, a healthy Mahomes should do better near the goal line this season. Mahomes also has perhaps the league's best collection of skill players, including a trio of speedy wideouts in Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman, while tight end Travis Kelce kills defenders underneath and up the seam. The Chiefs also added first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, considered the best receiving back in this year's draft. And, of course, aggressive play caller Andy Reid is always willing to take shots and chuck the ball around. In two seasons as starter, Mahomes has a league MVP and a Super Bowl MVP. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he wins either — or both — again this season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#30.84
ADP
$Signed a 10-year, $450 million contract with the Chiefs in July of 2020.
Mega-extension confirmed
QBKansas City Chiefs
July 6, 2020
The Chiefs have confirmed that Mahomes has been signed to a 10-year extension that is slated to keep the QB with the franchise for the next 12 seasons.
ANALYSIS
Per ESPN.com, Mahomes' extension is reportedly worth $450 million, while the injury guarantee in his deal is $140 million. Meanwhile, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network suggests that the pact is worth $503 million, with the star signal-caller getting $477 million "in guarantee mechanisms as well as "outs" if the guarantee mechanisms aren't exercised." Either way, Mahomes, who turns 25 in September, is now in line to have the largest contract in American professional sports.
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NFL Stats
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Fantasy/Red Zone Stats
See red zone opportunities inside the 20, 10 and 5-yard lines along with the percentage of time they converted the opportunity into a touchdown.
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Advanced NFL Stats
How do Patrick Mahomes' 2019 advanced stats compare to other quarterbacks?
This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.
  • Bad Pass %
    The percentage of passes that were considered to be poorly thrown.
  • Avg Target Depth
    The average number of yards thrown per pass by the quarterback – including incomplete passes.
  • Sack Rate
    The percentage of dropbacks where the quartback was sacked. The longer the bar below, the more often they are sacked relative to other QBs.
  • Avg Receiver YAC
    The average number of yards after the catch that receivers gained on passes thrown by this quarterback.
  • Receiver Drop %
    The percentage of passes dropped by receivers on passes thrown by this quarterback. The longer the bar, the more sure-handed his receivers have been.
Bad Pass %
20.6%
 
Avg Target Depth
9.8 Yds
 
Sack Rate
3.4%
 
Avg Receiver YAC
6.4 Yds
 
Receiver Drop %
5.6%
 
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2019
2018
2017
2019 NFL Game Log
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2018 NFL Game Log
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2017 NFL Game Log
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Snap Distribution / Depth Chart
Kansas City ChiefsChiefs 2019 QB Snap Distribution See more data like this
P.Patrick Mahomes
% of Team Snaps

1023
0
171
0
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2019 Patrick Mahomes Split Stats
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Measurables Review View College Player Page
How do Patrick Mahomes' measurables compare to other quarterbacks?
This section compares his draft workout metrics with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average.
Height
6' 3"
 
Weight
230 lbs
 
40-Yard Dash
4.80 sec
 
Shuttle Time
4.08 sec
 
Cone Drill
6.88 sec
 
Vertical Jump
30.0 in
 
Broad Jump
114 in
 
Hand Length
9.25 in
 
Arm Length
33.25 in
 
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Patrick Mahomes
NFL: Interpreting Best Ball Data
Yesterday
Chris Liss looks at the Fanball/NFFC Best Ball data from 2018-2019. Unsurprisingly, Christian McCaffrey was the biggest impact player both years.
NFL Observations: Snarky 150
2 days ago
Kerryon Johnson, damaged during turbulence, clocks in at No. 85, six spots below failed professional wrestler Rob Gronkowski.
Training Camp Notes: July 29
8 days ago
With Damien Williams opting out of the 2020 season, the already high expectations for rookie first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire have risen to more urgent levels yet.
2020 Training Camp Preview: Kansas City Chiefs
8 days ago
The Chiefs will look to defend their Super Bowl title following an unprecedented offseason.
ADP Analysis: July Trends for QBs and RBs
13 days ago
Ryan Tannehill looks like an excellent value at his July ADP of QB20, while Philip Rivers remains unattractive even at a reduced price.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
Entering last season, the question in Kansas City was less about Mahomes' NFL aptitude than whether coach Andy Reid would truly open the offense or play it cautious with his first-year starter. Well, Reid went for broke, and the cannon-armed Mahomes made it pay off. He threw a league-high 80 passes longer than 20 yards, accounting for 13.8 percent of his attempts (most among QBs with at least 450 passes), and led the league with 10 TDs on those throws. Mahomes also ranked second in YPA (8.8) and sixth in average target depth (9.2). Easily the MVP, he became the second QB in NFL history after Peyton Manning (2013) to pass for 5,000-plus yards and 50 touchdowns, his 8.6 TD percentage the highest since Aaron Rodgers in 2011 (9.0). With Tyreek Hill available for the start of the 2019 campaign, things are looking rosy again for the Chiefs offense. Hill was Mahomes' favorite deep target last season, catching a league-high eight passes of 40-plus yards. Next up are the oft-injured Sammy Watkins and second-round pick Mecole Hardman. Both have questions, but both are fast enough (4.33 40 for Hardman) to stretch the field. The almost-uncoverable Travis Kelce is a constant, and the backfield is led by Damien Williams, who shined after Hunt exited, and free-agent addition Carlos Hyde. Regression is inevitable - Mahomes is not likely to outpace the No. 2 QB by four fantasy points per game again - but in Reid's offense it shouldn't be crippling.
The Patrick Mahomes era begins this year in Kansas City after the team traded Alex Smith to the Redskins in the offseason. Mahomes was decent in his lone start Week 17 last season, but the bigger question this year is what the Chiefs offense will look like. Coach Andy Reid took the cautious approach with Smith his first four years in Kansas City, averaging a mere 32 passes per season more than 20 yards downfield. Last year, though, Smith was unleashed, attempting 53 such passes in an explosive offense. (Ironically, he had fewer interceptions (5) than he averaged over the "cautious" period (7).) Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is gone, replaced by Eric Bieniemy, but either way, it's still Reid's show. The 6-2, 225-pound Mahomes certainly has the arm for a vertical game. And he has plenty of weapons, starting with Tyreek Hill, who might be the league's fastest man. On the other side is new arrival Sammy Watkins, who can also stretch the field and has a bit more bulk than Hill. Then there's Travis Kelce, one of the best tight ends in football, and Kareem Hunt, who led the league in rushing as a rookie last year. All that talent might encourage Reid to be more aggressive, rather than content to ask little of Mahomes besides taking care of the ball. If Mahomes' inner gunslinger is allowed to emerge, drafting the unproven quarterback will pay off for fantasy owners.
The Chiefs traded up 17 spots to 10th overall to draft Mahomes, whose cannon arm, occasional recklessness and gunslinger mentality evoked comparisons on draft day to head coach Andy Reid's former student, Brett Favre. Mahomes, of course, is a long way from Favre, so Reid and the Chiefs view him as a project -- Alex Smith will start for at least another year. At 6-2, 225, with 4.8 speed, Mahomes probably won't be a huge rushing threat but should be fast enough to escape pressure and make occasional plays with his feet. The biggest knock on him is the Texas Tech system, which continually fails to produce quality NFL quarterbacks. But Mahomes has the size, athleticism and physical skills to not only buck the trend but end up as the best quarterback from this year's draft class.
More Fantasy News
Extension tops $400 million
QBKansas City Chiefs
July 6, 2020
The 10-year contract extension signed by Mahomes on Monday is reportedly worth over $400 million, ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Gets 10-year extension
QBKansas City Chiefs
July 6, 2020
Mahomes agreed Monday with the Chiefs on a 10-year contract extension, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
ANALYSIS
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Fifth-year option extended
QBKansas City Chiefs
April 30, 2020
Mahomes had his fifth-year option extended Thursday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
ANALYSIS
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Extension imminent?
QBKansas City Chiefs
April 25, 2020
Chiefs general manager Clark Hunt suggested a possible extension for Mahomes could come following the 2020 NFL Draft, Pete Sweeney of ArrowheadPride.com reports.
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No offseason procedure expected
QBKansas City Chiefs
February 25, 2020
Coach Andy Reid relayed Tuesday that he doesn't believe Mahomes will require offseason surgery after dislocating his kneecap this past October, Adam Teicher of ESPN.com reports. "Right now he looks good," Reid said of the QB, who capped his 2019 season by earning Super Bowl LIV MVP honors. "He was out throwing with Dez (Bryant) the other day so he looked like he was slinging it around pretty good. I think he's fine."
ANALYSIS
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