Ertz has increased his receptions three years running, but he's never been big on touchdowns. Last year's four spikes tied for a career high. The low touchdown count wasn't for a lack of trying; he saw 17 red-zone targets but only caught six and turned three into scores. He also had the lowest YPC of his career, and now there's a bit more competition for the ball, as the additions of veteran wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith was offset by the August trade of Jordan Matthews to the Bills. Pass-catching back Darren Sproles is still around to fight with Ertz for short targets, but development from Carson Wentz could provide more overall production to go around. Ertz gets the check mark for durability; he's only missed three games in his four-year pro career. And he's always been seen as an intuitive and intelligent player, dating to his days at Stanford. We're comfortable projecting Ertz for another 70-plus catches and a yardage total around 800, but if he were going to become a big touchdown scorer, it probably would have happened by now. There's no shame in this being as good as it gets for Ertz -- he's the type of player you can draft with a good sense of what's likely to come, and that's a reassuring thing. Just don't start dreaming of a new level to climb.