Alvin Kamara

The Saints offense didn't thrive in Derek Carr's first year as starting quarterback, but Kamara's fantasy investors had no qualms with the arrangement thanks to 75 receptions in 13 games. For the third year in a row, Kamara's efficiency as a ballcarrier remained far below the standard set in the first four seasons of his career, when he averaged at least 4.6 YPC. He's produced 4.0 YPC or less three years in a row now, and the touchdowns have dried up too (11 rushing TDs in the last three years, 43 in the first four). Efficiency figures to remain a challenge given Carr's limitations and the Saints' shaky offensive tackles, but Kamara should still have the sort of usage that pays off in fantasy football as long as he can hold off 2023 third-round pick Kendre Miller. Neither Miller nor Jamaal Williams put much of a dent in Kamara's workload last year, but it is possible the Saints take a little more off their lead back's plate in his age-29 season.

It's difficult to tell whether Kamara lost something the last two years or if the Saints offense simply got worse in a way that would drag down any running back. If it's the first thing then there's nothing to be done, but if it's the second there could be hope for a Kamara resurgence with the arrival of Derek Carr at quarterback. Mediocre he may be, but Carr should be a notable upgrade all the same relative to Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. Crucially, while Kamara's rushing efficiency (and target volume) fell off with the addition of more carries the last two years, his receiving stats remained efficient. He isn't at his best in the type of run-first offense he played in last year, and the Saints' struggles gave him less space to work with than in the past. Still, it's understandable to have some anxiety about Kamara's abilities heading into his age-28 season. Even if he revives his receiving production and/or rushing explosiveness, there's concern he'll lose a lot of carries to Jamaal Williams (especially at the goal line, where Taysom Hill is also a factor) and/or rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller. The other backs will undoubtedly have their chances to make an impression, as Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season and won't debut until Week 4 (Oct. 1).

Kamara's first season without Drew Brees under center was a radical departure. The running back set a career high with 240 carries despite missing four games, but he also had career lows in targets, catches, receiving yards, yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. The change around him, particularly once new quarterback Jameis Winston was lost for the season, did Kamara's fantasy value no favors. We can't place all the blame on his environment, however. Kamara's 1.5 yards per carry after contact was by far the worst performance of his career in that metric, as he'd consistently been in the 2.2-2.3 range the three years prior. A knee injury in the middle of the season may have been a factor in that decline, though his YPC was actually worse (3.6) before he missed any games. Between the relative down year in 2021 and a February 2022 arrest for battery allegations, Kamara comes with quite a bit of downside risk to balance out the still-high ceiling. It doesn't help that Sean Payton left the Saints, nor is it promising that the team remains without a franchise QB after missing out on Deshaun Watson this offseason. On the other hand, Kamara did account for 20.9 percent of Winston's targets in a run-heavy offense the first half of last season, and another year together could allow the duo to improve their chemistry. The days of Kamara seeing triple-digit targets may be gone, however.

Kamara did everything he could to make sure Drew Brees' swan song would be memorable. The running back finished last year with career highs in rushing yards, rushing TDs, receiving yards and catches as he took on an even larger role in the Saints offense while WR Michael Thomas battled through injuries. Putting one of the most elusive open-field runners behind one of the best offensive lines in the league made for a very dangerous combination, and Kamara finished eighth among RBs in average yards before contact (2.8), his highest ranking in the last three years. However, Brees retired, and that creates a level of uncertainty for the whole offense in 2021, especially with star wideout Michael Thomas out for the early part of the season while rehabbing from ankle surgery. Kamara was already the centerpiece of the offense, and while it may not be as efficient on past years, he could take on extra volume if the Saints' young wide receivers and tight ends struggle to replace Thomas or the team's free-agent losses (WR Emmanuel Sanders, TE Jared Cook).

Last season was a disappointment for Kamara, as lower-leg injuries hampered him down the stretch and limited him to "only" 1,330 total yards and six TDs, the lowest totals of his three-year career. When he's in top form, the Tennessee product remains one of the most electric open-field runners in the league and one of the top receiving threats out of the backfield, and he's remarkably hauled in exactly 81 passes in each of his three seasons. Before the injuries began to slow him, Kamara was right on pace for another brilliant campaign, averaging 7.1 yards per target through his first six games but only 4.3 YPT over his last nine, including the playoffs. Kamara's secret weapon has always been his surprising power and sturdiness as a rusher at 5-10, 215. Even in a season when he was often performing at less than 100 percent as he gutted out his injuries, he led the league in broken tackle rate with one for every 5.9 carries. Latavius Murray is still in town as a solid, veteran backup, but the Saints don't have much else behind him and are all-in on the 2020 season, i.e., Kamara has some leverage in his ongoing contract negotiations.

As great as Kamara has been through his first two NFL seasons, it's possible he's only scratching the surface of his potential. His carries jumped by more than 60 percent last year without taking anything away from his role in the passing game, resulting in 18 total TDs. The Saints weren't afraid to use him in short-yardage situations (his 16 carries inside the 5 tied for fifth in the league) and the decision to let Mark Ingram walk this offseason and replace him with Latavius Murray suggests Kamara's role on the ground could expand further in 2019. The extra volume did result in lower efficiency, but the third-year back possesses top-shelf elusiveness and speed in the open field, and he consistently runs with toughness. Drew Brees' knack for finding Kamara in space doesn't hurt, either. Some time soon, New Orleans might have to reckon with a decline from its legendary QB, but Kamara will help cushion that blow when it eventually falls. If he joins the 300-touch club, he could take a run at 2,000 scrimmage yards.

A third-round pick out of Tennessee last year, Kamara joined the Saints with some uncertainty as to his eventual role. Unable to earn a full workload in college despite flashes of brilliance, he seemed stuck behind Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson on the depth chart, and there were concerns that the rookie wouldn't be able to stand up to an NFL pounding. One year later, those concerns have all been washed away in the flood of highlight-reel plays Kamara produced. He led running backs in receiving yards and also led the league in percentage of carries that went for at least 15 yards, with 11 such runs on 120 totes (9.2 percent). His presence prevented defenses from keying on Ingram, and the duo became the first RB teammates in history to both top 1,500 scrimmage yards in a season. Kamara displays excellent speed and elusiveness, but it's his change-of-direction skills and world-class acceleration that really set him apart. He can explode into and through even the smallest hole before it closes, and his ability to shift gears, change direction and rev back up in the open field routinely makes defenders look foolish. Ingram is suspended the first four games of the season, and while the Saints say they don't want to increase Kamara's workload too much, it's hard not to get excited for the possibility of what he could do with an additional 5-8 touches per game.

The Saints have a history of utilizing speedy pass-catching backs in their offense, so when Kamara fell into the third round of this year's draft, the New Orleans front office pounced, trading a second-round pick in 2018 to grab him. At 5-10, 215, Kamara has decent size, but it's his top-end speed and explosiveness that set him apart, making him a threat to take the ball to the end zone any time he gets it in open space. He's also a very good receiver and route runner. His vision is suspect, and he never got a chance to prove he can handle a full workload in college, but with Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson also in the Saints' backfield, he won't be asked to do anything outside of his comfort zone. Kamara's touches as a rookie may be limited, but his per-play efficiency could be off the charts.