Survivor: Surviving Week 1

This is my least favorite column to write each year. Not Survivor itself, but the Week 1 version where I can possibly influence people to lose their entire entry before they get even a small amount of entertainment value out of it. But it's kind of like sitting next to the emergency exit on an airplane. Sure, it's stressful to be the person charged with remembering how to pull it open, but better me than some half-wit from two rows back.

Seriously, though, there is real risk every week in survivor, and this one especially as there are no double-digit favorites. According to Vegas, the biggest "shoo-in" is the Bills at only 81 percent. Ask yourself how you'd feel about getting on an airplane with an 81-percent chance to make it to its destination safely? That's what we're dealing with this week.

Before you go any further, it's important to understand the principles of Survivor play (and also the rules.) Behind this seemingly simple contest are actually some surprisingly complex strategic considerations. I strongly urge you to read about them here and here. I'll be drawing on concepts like "pot odds" and "pool equity" throughout the season, and they'll make more sense if you grasp the underlying framework.

Okay, without further ado, let's take a look at the Week 1 slate:

There are but four teams I'd actually consider: The Bills, Patriots, Steelers and Falcons. No one else (according to Vegas) is above 70 percent, and unless you have an excellent reason to believe Vegas is way off the mark on a particular team (in which case you might also want to bet the moneyline), I would avoid it.

Of the four, three (the Bills, Steelers and Patriots) have nearly the same chance to win, while the Steelers and Bills are easily the most owned.

That makes the Patriots the best pure value, but it's not by much because the Steelers and Bills split the pool.

To illustrate, let's take our standard example of a 100-person pool with a $10 buy-in. If you had the Patriots, and the Steelers lost, 26 people would go down, and there would be 74 left. Let's estimate another 15 lose with other teams, and there are 59 left. The total equity in your pool is $1,000 (100 * 10), so with 59 people left, you'd have $1000/59 = $16.95 in equity.

If you had the Steelers and the Patriots lost, 12 would go down with New England and another 15 or so on other teams, so 73 would remain. $1000/73 = $13.70.

The ratio of $16.95/13.70 = 1.24. In other words you're getting 1.24 to 1 odds in Week 2 equity by taking the Pats.

The risk for the Pats - at least according to Vegas - is slightly higher - 20 percent vs. 19 percent for the Bills. (Steelers are also 20 percent.) Because it's so close, I'm going to say the difference is negligible. Moneylines are subject to movement and imprecise anyway.

Finally, the Bills are slightly less owned than the Steelers but rather than run through the entire calculation, let's say the Week 2 equity payout for taking the Pats over them is between 1.15 and 1.22 to 1. Like moneylines, ownership data is variable and subject to change, especially in Week 1, where there will be a lot of late entrants who haven't even logged into their pools yet.

Bottom line, there are three roughly equal teams according to Vegas and the ownership numbers, and while it looks like the Patriots are the best bang for the buck right now, it's by a relatively slight margin, and you have to weigh that against using them up for the rest of the year.

If you read the Survivor principles article, you see that saving teams for later is typically a terrible strategy, but in this case where the advantage of using the Patriots now is slight, I actually couldn't fault someone for it.

My Picks

1. New England Patriots

I'm using them against a tough opponent, and it's not only because the math says they're ever-so-slightly the best play. Week 1 has maximum uncertainty as we haven't seen teams play for eight months, and in this case, I'll go with the franchise I trust most over the rebuilding Bills and the Steelers, who have played poorly on the road. Andy Reid's teams are great off bye weeks - he's an excellent game-planner - and Tyreek Hill is capable of making a huge play or two that can swing the game. But the Pats almost never lose at home, and while any team is capable of an unexpected letdown, the Patriots are the least likely not to show up. I give New England an 82 percent chance to win this game. (Note if they lose, you're out on the Thursday before the first weekend even starts!)

2. Buffalo Bills

If I were pivoting off the Pats - or diversifying among several entries as New England poses real risk - I'd use the Bills. They're at home, Tyrod Taylor is going to play, and the Jets just lost their best defensive player via trade. I don't trust the Bills enough to make them my top choice, but the situation and opponent could not be better here. I give the Bills an 80 percent chance to win this game.

3. Atlanta Falcons

I believe the Super Bowl hangover phenomenon is real, and no one has ever lost the big game in as devastating a fashion as the Falcons. Moreover, this is a road game, and the Falcons are without ace offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Still, the Bears are a weak team with Mike Glennon at QB and untested and/or untalented pass catchers vying for roles. I give the Falcons a 72 percent chance to win this game.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

If I had to use the Steelers I still would, but I don't trust Ben Roethlisberger who has been awful on the road, and I think this is the year the Browns go from league doormat to below-average NFL team. I give the Steelers a 70 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions

Houston Texans - I actually think the emotion of playing shortly after a natural disaster will bring out the best in the Texans, and the Jaguars still have Blake Bortles, but I can't trust my entry to Tom Savage.

Los Angeles Rams - The Colts are terrible without Andrew Luck and Vontae Davis, but this is still the Jared Goff-led Rams. Maybe Goff takes a significant step forward this year, but if last year's version shows up, this game is close to 50/50.

Carolina Panthers - I like the Panthers this year, but a road game against what should be a much improved and much better coached 49ers team is too risky in Week 1, especially with Cam Newton possibly a little rusty.