This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
PHOENIX OPEN
Tournament Details
Purse: $6.5M
Winner's Share: $1,170,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
Course: TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course (7,266 yards, par 71)
Defending Champion: Brooks Koepka
Tournament Preview
In what is considered the rowdiest event on the PGA Tour, the Phoenix Open will be hosted by TPC Scottsdale for the 30th time. The "Greatest Show on Grass" is most widely known for its electric atmosphere at the par-3 16th hole that packs 20,000-plus party-loving fans. The dramatic hole has lived up to its hype, producing a Tiger Woods' ace in 1997 among other moments. Nine of the world's top 25 will tee it up this week, including Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler, and Arizona State alum Phil Mickelson, who will look to secure his fourth win at this venue and seventh in the state of Arizona. Outside of Mickelson's remarkable 28-under week in 2013 during which he lipped out his putt for a first-round 59, the champion in 2016 should hover around 14 to 18 under par for the week.
Key Stats to winning at TPC Scottsdale:
Driving Distance
Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
Par-Breakers
Past Champions
2015 - Brooks Koepka
2014 - Kevin Stadler
2013 - Phil Mickelson
2012 - Kyle Stanley
2011 - Mark Wilson
2010 - Hunter Mahan
2009 - Kenny Perry
2008 - J.B. Holmes
2007 - Aaron Baddeley
2006 - J.B. Holmes
Champion's Profile:
Though the course endured a renovation prior to last year's event, the history of the event still must be strongly considered in the profile. For one, ball-strikers who hit it long have fared very well here the last decade because of their ability to get to the three par-5s in two shots and potentially drive the green on the short par-4 17th hole. Players like Koepka, Mickelson, Stanley and Holmes are quite long off the tee, but for other champions it was total driving and elite iron play that made them victorious. Putting seems to be of lesser importance here, as players like Stadler, Stanley and two-time runner-up Bubba Watson have seldom been labeled great putters.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Bubba Watson - $12,000 (Winning Odds: 8%)
Brandt Snedeker - $11,800 (7%)
Phil Mickelson - $10,600 (5%)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Justin Thomas - $9,300 (3%)
Ryan Moore - $8,500 (2%)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Billy Horschel - $7,900 (2%)
Scott Piercy - $7,700 (2%)
Kevin Streelman - $7,700 (2%)
Martin Laird - $7,700 (2%)
Robert Streb - $7,700 (2%)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
K.J Choi - $7,100 (1%)
Aaron Baddeley - $6,900 (1%)
Jonas Blixt - $6,900 (1%)
Keegan Bradley - $6,800 (1%)
Morgan Hoffmann - $6,600 (1%)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Hideki Matsuyama - $11,000
Ryan Moore - $8,500
Billy Horschel - $7,900
Si Woo Kim - $7,800
Tony Finau - $7,800
Keegan Bradley - $6,800
There are plenty of guys with great histories at this event, but I'm focusing on historical finishes and/or strokes gained tee to green as my key metrics this week. Matsuyama jumps off the page with elite tee-to-green numbers and top-five finishes in both starts at this event. Moore is known for his elite iron play and has five top-20s in Scottsdale. Horschel comes off a nice finish last week at Torrey Pines and can contend if his ball striking carries over this week. The young Si Woo Kim has torn it up this year with five-straight top-20s, and, despite being a first-timer in Scottsdale, the rowdy crowds shouldn't faze his sizzling form. Lastly, Tony Finau and Keegan Bradley are bombers who have each posted at least one top-25 at this venue and fit the distance and ball-striking profile to succeed.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Bubba Watson - $12,100
Scott Piercy - $7,700
Kevin Streelman - $7,700
Martin Laird - $7,700
Robert Streb - $7,700
K.J. Choi - $7,100
Having posted three top-fives the past four years in Scottsdale including back-to-back runner-ups, Bubba Watson is a common no-brainer pick, but who you pair him with is the critical piece this week. Scott Piercy quietly has five top-15s in seven starts at TPC Scottsdale, making him an underrated pick. Kevin Streelman enters with a pair of recent top-11 finishes the last two weeks, so I'm slotting him in despite his less-than-stellar history here. Martin Laird was primed to win last year but crumbled late on the back nine. He'll seek sweet redemption in 2016. Rounding out the higher-risk lineup are Robert Streb and K.J. Choi, who enter with finishes of T18 and second last week, respectively. Streb also posted a tie for 10th in his first start at the Phoenix Open last year.
