This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T BYRON NELSON
Purse: $7.7M
Winner's Share: $1,386M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Dallas
Course: Trinity Forest Golf Club
Yardage: 7,380
Par: 71
2017 champion: Billy Horschel
Tournament Preview
Gamers, it's a brand new course this year and we have a lot to tell you about it. But first it's important to note that this is the 50th anniversary of the tournament being named for the beloved Hall of Famer Byron Nelson, who won the first edition back in 1944, when it was called the Texas Victory Open. The list of former champions stacks up against any tournament: Hogan, Snead, Nicklaus, Watson (four times), Floyd, Els, Garcia and Day. Even Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, who haven't played the event in years, are former champs. They'll skip it again this time around, too, as the tournament has faded in relevance. It lost a big chunk of its appeal after Nelson passed in 2006, but it will receive a big boost next year, when it reportedly will be the played the week before the PGA Championship.
For now, though, we are left with a field that is dreadful even by its usual standards, with just seven of the top 50 in the OWGR. The headliners are those two noted Texans, Jordan Spieth -- a Trinity Forest member -- and Sergio Garcia. The other top-50 guys are Hideki Matsuyama, Marc Leishman, Matt Kuchar, Satoshi Kodaira and Branden Grace, and some notable names like Adam Scott, Jimmy Walker and Brandt Snedeker are also on hand. The opposite end of the field features Web.com guys, or worse, dropping all the way down to ... Robert Allenby. We kid! But as we all know by now, going 156 deep with plenty of filler only heightens the challenges of lineup construction.
There is of course another huge challenge this week: a course with no history. The first thing to know about Trinity Forest Golf Club is that it's not in a forest; in fact, there are zero trees in play and no water, either. If that sounds like a links course to you, it sort of is. Trinity opened just two years ago and was co-designed Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore, who likens it to Pinehurst No. 2, site of the 2014 U.S. Open. Spieth compares it to Royal Birkdale, a links course where you play the ball more in the air and where he won the Open Championship last year. Interestingly, it was built on a landfill, and therefore no digging was allowed. They had to build "up," and what emerged were a lot of bumps and hills and tall native grasses on wide-open spaces. The greens have undulations that repel the ball into collection areas and run-offs. The signature of the course is probably not a hole but a green -- a double green for the 3rd and 11th holes that organizers say could be the largest in North America. It clocks in at about 350,000 square feet and is about 100 yards long -- not feet, yards. Yes, the length of a football field. And it will come into play not once, but twice. Golfers, just take your four-putt and head to the next tee. We'll get into what it takes to win at Trinity Forest in the key stats and Champion's Profile below. As for the 2014 U.S. Open at Pinehurst and last year's British at Birkdale, not many golfers in this field played in either tournament.
Weather-wise, we're looking at a scorcher, with temperatures in the 90s and maybe even reaching 100. There's little chance of rain and, right now, the winds are forecast to be pretty light. But as we know with Texas tournaments -- there are five of them, tied with California for most on the PGA Tour -- wind is almost always a factor.
Key Stats to Winning at Trinity Forest (in order of importance)
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: tee to green
• Scrambling/strokes gained: around the green
• Proximity to the hole
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
Past Champions
2017 - Billy Horschel
2016 - Sergio Garcia
2015 - Steven Bowditch
2014 - Brendon Todd
2013 - Sangmoon Bae
2012 - Jason Dufner
2011 - Keegan Bradley
2010 - Jason Day
2009 - Rory Sabbatini
2008 - Adam Scott
Champion's Profile:
We don't know a lot about this course. Geoff Ogilvy, who has spent time there in advance of this week, says golfers will need to use their brains, that there is a right side of the fairway to be on and a wrong side. He also added that there are spots to land the ball on the green that aren't necessarily near the pin. While we list proximity to the hole as a key stat, this week it's more like proximity to a target. But if a golfer is good at one, he should be good at the other. The course is long, but indications are that the ball can run a long way in the fairway, so we're not focusing on big hitters and distance off the tee. As usual, you can only go so wrong getting the ball on the green in regulation. When the golfers miss, or when the ball runs off into those collection areas, scrambling will be vital to leave a makeable par putt.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Jordan Spieth - $11,900 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 9-2)
Spieth is far and away the favorite, both in betting odds and DraftKings prices, more than $1,000 costlier than the second guy on the DK board. You don't see that very often. Spieth is a member of Trinity Forest, so he should have some advantages over the field. Another advantage is that he's Jordan Spieth. He's leading the Tour in scrambling, is seventh in proximity to the hole and ninth in strokes gained: approach. Despite a pair of recent top-3s at Houston and Augusta, equaling his best finishes of the season, Spieth remains a dreadful putter, ranked 183rd. We're banking that course knowledge will help him there.
Matt Kuchar - $10,700 (14-1)
Kuchar is the No. 2 DK choice. He's talked about liking to play courses that make him think, so we think Kuchar will embrace Trinity Forest. He's tied for 22nd on Tour in proximity, and is 35th in scrambling and 38th in strokes gained: putting. Those are far from elite numbers, but in this field, that's Byron Nelson-like.
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,900 (20-1)
Matsuyama has not had a top-10 since Hawaii, slowed at first by a wrist injury and then just poor play (unless the injury continues to secretly bother him). Through it all, a part of Matsuyama's game has remained elite: he's ranked fourth on Tour in strokes gained: around the green. He's also 57th in greens in regulation and recently was top-20 at the Masters. Make no mistake, in a stronger field, we'd bypass Matsuyama.
Tier 2 Values
Jimmy Walker - $9,500 (20-1)
As Walker learns to continue his career with Lyme disease, his results have been nothing short of remarkable. But he rarely plays consecutive weeks, as he is doing now on the heels of a terrific co-runner-up finish at THE PLAYERS. Walker loves to play in Texas and has had some good results. His big miss this year has been off the tee, something we don't think will hurt him so much this week. He's ranked 52nd on Tour in strokes gained: approach, T40 in SG around and 23rd in SG putting.
Branden Grace - $9,400 (20-1)
Grace has had a quiet 2017-18 to date, with only one top-10. But he hasn't missed a cut in 10 starts, half of them resulting in top-25s, including at the Masters. His worst round all year was a 74 -- no doubt thanks to his ranking of sixth in strokes gained: putting.
Adam Scott - $9,200 (20-1)
Scott returned to an old putter last week for THE PLAYERS. He tied for 11th and was T28 in strokes gained: putting. That's of course a great sign, plus some of his other numbers have not been bad: 18th in both strokes gained: approach and SG tee to green, 48th in strokes gained: around the green. Scott has won each one of the regular Tour stops in Texas.
Marc Leishman - $9,100 (25-1)
Leishman has been all-or-nothing this season. He has five top-10s in 13 starts, but every other week he's been outside the top-30. His latest top-10 was at the Masters, another course where superior green-side play is required. Leishman is ranked eighth on Tour in strokes gained: around the green.
Beau Hossler - $9,000 (30-1)
This is quite a price for a winless rookie. But not for a Trinity Forest member. The former Texas Longhorn just missed at Houston last month, finishing runner-up to Ian Poulter. Hossler is ranked 32nd in strokes gained: putting, 44th in greens in regulation and 64th in scrambling.
Tier 3 Values
Charles Howell III - $8,100 (30-1)
Howell notched his 10th top-25 last week at THE PLAYERS, his fifth in his past six starts. And all those came in far tougher fields. Howell is ranked 14th in greens in regulation, 30th in scrambling, 62nd in strokes gained: around the green and 77th in proximity.
Martin Laird - $7,900 (40-1)
Laird has fashioned a quietly good season, with five top-25s and three top-10s. He has missed only one cut since January. Laird ranks 13th on Tour in strokes gained: around the green, 21st in SG putting and T38 in proximity. He's also 31st in strokes gained: total.
Graeme McDowell - $7,900 (50-1)
McDowell has only three top-25s this season, but he just missed a fourth last time out at Quail Hollow (T27). We expect him to figure out the nuances of Trinity Forest better than most. McDowell isn't a long hitter, but he's not as short as perceived. He's ranked 35th in driving accuracy, something that should leave him well positioned to attack the greens. McDowell is ranked 18th on Tour in strokes gained: putting.
Aaron Baddeley - $7,500 (100-1)
Normally one of the sport's elite putters, Baddeley is ranked 117th in strokes gained: putting. However, he is an elite second on Tour in strokes gained: around the green, which should help to shorten those putts on this week's unfamiliar putting surfaces.
Long-Shot Values
Hunter Mahan - $6,900 (125-1)
Combing the nether regions for long shots was not a fun exercise this week. We begin with another member of Trinity Forest. Mahan's game has shown some flashes this season, especially closer to the hole. He's ranked 37th in scrambling and 17th in strokes gained: putting. He's also 78th in greens in regulation. Mahan has made three straight cuts, including two of them in Texas last month.
Andrew Putnam - $6,900 (80-1)
Putnam has made five straight cuts, three of those being top-15s and one of those being a T8 in San Antonio. He's ranked 30th in greens in regulation and 61st in strokes gained: around the green.
Ryan Armour - $6,700 (125-1)
Armour's 2017-18 success has definitely been front-loaded, with his win at the Sanderson Farms back in October. But there are facets of his game well suited for this week, namely that he's second on Tour in driving accuracy, 15th in proximity and 37th in strokes gained: around the green.
Geoff Ogilvy - $6,500 (250-1)
While researching Trinity Forest, we came across a series of videos giving us a tour of the course. Our tour guide, for some reason, was Ogilvy. The veteran Aussie has gotten into the design business and his firm unsuccessfully bid for Trinity Forest. Graciously, he is still helping promote the track. Ogilvy probably knows the course as well as anyone in the field. If you are looking for more reasoning here, Ogilvy's lone top-25 this season came in another tournament with a weak field, at the opposite-field event in the Dominican Republic in March.
