This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN
Purse: $6.9M
Winner's Share: $1.242M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: La Jolla, Calif.
Course: Torrey Pines GC (South course)
Yardage: 7,698
Par: 72
2017 champion: Jon Rahm
Tournament Preview
Let's get right to it: Will Tiger Woods be in your lineup? The answer is coming up shortly. For now, some things are bigger than fantasy golf, and the return of Woods is at the top of the list. Every golf fan is awaiting the opening tee shot of Woods' first PGA Tour event in a year -- since he missed the cut last year here at Torrey Pines and headed off for yet another back surgery. The latest procedure appears to have done something the others did not do, however: allow him to play golf pain-free. That was evident a couple of months ago when Woods tied for ninth in the elite field of 18 at the Hero World Challenge (a tournament that awards world rankings points but is not part of the PGA Tour).
This 156-man field is far from elite, but it is loaded with top golfers. Woods will be hard-pressed to hold his own against defending champion and world No. 2 Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler and others spanning the upper echelons of the OWGR. Woods is going off at 25-1 to win, odds no doubt buoyed by Vegas' knowledge that many people will bet on Tiger Woods simply because he's Tiger Woods. There are other, more levelheaded options, such as if he will make the cut, finish in the top-10, etc. He can make the cut, with a chance for a top-25. That would be a remarkable finish after such a long layoff.
So, is Woods a quality DraftKings play this week? Not a chance. Not at $9,700, the No. 5 price on the board. What were they thinking? They were thinking just what Vegas was thinking: gamers will back him just because he's Tiger. We'll leave Woods out of the lineup, yet root for him, perhaps even at our own expense.
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming. Torrey Pines signifies the start of tougher, meatier fields. Four of the top-7 in the world are on hand -- all named above -- along with 15 other golfers in the top 50 of the OWGR. The South course is one of the beasts on the entire PGA Tour calendar. But you know what? The North (par-72, 7,258) is not the pushover it used to be. After a 2016 Tom Weiskopf makeover, the North has gradually toughened from the 46th hardest course on Tour three years ago, to 38th two years ago and 32nd last year. Golfers will play each track once before cut-makers move exclusively to the South for the weekend. Over the 36 combined holes on both courses, nearly one-third of them (11) are par-4s in excess of 450 yards. That imposing factoid plays a big part in the key stats and Champion's Profile below. The hardest of the hard is the par-4, 504-yard ninth on the South, a hole that was the fifth toughest on Tour all last year. Right behind it is No. 2 on the North, a 495-yarder that was the 15th hardest. Yes, the North has some teeth.
Weather-wise, temperatures are forecast to be on the chilly side for the San Diego area this time of year, at around 60 for the first two rounds before warming to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. There will be no rain and minimal wind. Of course, for many, the better Woods plays, the sunnier the tournament will be.
Key Stats to Winning at Torrey Pines South
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Driving distance/strokes gained off the tee
• Greens in regulation/ strokes gained approach
• Scrambling/strokes gained around the green
• Par-4 efficiency 450-500 yards
Past Champions
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 - Brandt Snedeker
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Scott Stallings
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bubba Watson
2010 – Ben Crane
2009 – Nick Watney
2008 – Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile
You don't need to be among the driving-distance leaders to win this week, but it sure helps. Big hitters Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Scott Stallings, Tiger Woods and Bubba Watson have all won the tournament this decade. Conversely, Brandt Snedeker has won twice, once on the strength of his sensational putting but especially thanks to his scrambling acumen. With the South so long, GIR numbers are annually among the lowest on Tour, which brings deftness around the greens into play. Four of the past six winners were top-15 in scrambling. Long drives, even some wayward ones, help boost GIR numbers. Seven of the combined eight hardest holes on the two courses last year were par-4s in excess of 450 yards. Golfers who simply make par on those holes will be well ahead of the field. As you'll see, putting is not a key stat for one of the few times all year. The last three winners -- Rahm, Snedeker and Day -- did no better than 30th in strokes gained putting.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Jon Rahm - $11,800 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1)
Rahm followed up a second-place showing at the Tournament of Champions with last week's win at the CareerBuilder Challenge. The field is far tougher this go-round, but Rahm is still far and away the best of the bunch, having supplanted Jordan Spieth for No. 2 in the world -- and with a chance to overtake No. 1 Dustin Johnson with a win. Rahm is the defending champion, the rare one who won on his first course visit. This time around, he's got some course history and know-how.
Justin Rose - $10,600 (12-1)
Rose went on a tear at the end of 2017, winning three times beginning with the WGC event in October. He closed the year with 10 consecutive top-10s to vault No. 6 in the world. Rose opened 2018 with a T22 last week in Abu Dhabi, but he must be feeling pretty good about his back to schedule Abu Dhabi-San Diego in back-to-back weeks. The Englishman tied for fourth a year ago at Torrey Pines.
Patrick Cantlay - $9,500 (30-1)
With some of the other big names having mixed results in this tournament (namely Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler), we're dipping down to Cantlay, the seventh choice on the DK board. He has played this course once before, but that was way back in 2013 and he missed the cut. Cantlay didn't miss a cut last season and then won his first career PGA Tour event during the wraparound portion of the schedule. He tied for 15th at the Tournament of Champions in his lone start of 2018.
Marc Leishman - $9,200 (20-1)
Leishman says this is one of his favorite courses in the world and reminds him of tracks he played growing up in Australia. He's had good success here, with a couple of runner-ups, most recently in 2014. Back then he was No. 60 in the world and now he's 13th, playing the best stretch of golf in his career since the FedEx Cup playoffs began in late August.
Tier 2 Values
Tony Finau - $8,700 (30-1)
Finau has improved from T24 to T18 to T4 in three trips to Torrey Pines. He has ranked second in driving distance on Tour so far this season and eighth in strokes gained approach. Finau's putting has gradually improved -- he's ranked 64th in putting average.
Gary Woodland - $8,600 (40-1)
The big-hitting Woodland has landed in the top 20 at Torrey Pines three of the past four years. He christened 2018 with a T7 at the Sony Open. Woodland has only eight measured rounds so far, but he stands 15th in driving distance, 23rd in strokes gained approach and 14th in strokes gained putting.
Ollie Schnierjans - $8,500 (50-1)
Schniederjans opened the wraparound season with three successive top-25s, then kicked of 2018 with a T7 at the Sony. He ranks T23 in par-4 450-500 efficiency. Schniederjans improved from T49 in his first visit to Torrey Pines two years ago to T9 last year.
Charles Howell III - $8,300 (40-1)
Howell has amassed five top-10s here over the years, including his second runner-up just a year ago. He's been his usual model of consistency in the early going of 2017-18, notching three top-20s during the fall schedule and another last week at La Quinta. Howell ranks T26 in par-4, 450-500.
Tier 3 Values
Jhonattan Vegas - $7,700 (60-1)
Vegas is another guy who has expressed love for Torrey Pines, and it has shown in his play through the years. He has three top-20s and is coming off a T28 last year. Vegas opened 2018 in fine form, with a T7 at the TOC and a T11 last week at the CareerBuilder. He is far behind the leaders in driving distance, but he's still ranked 33rd in strokes gained: off the tee.
Si Woo Kim - $7,700 (80-1)
Kim's history at Torrey Pines is a microcosm of his career: T18 in 2016, WD last year. As we've said before, when Kim plays four rounds, he tends to do well, even in strong fields. He has now gone 10 straight events since his last WD. Kim is among a large group of golfers T26 in par-4 450-500 efficiency.
Julian Suri - $7,500 (60-1)
We'll take a flyer on Suri, a 26-year-old Duke alum who received a sponsor's invite. The rare New York City native on Tour has been playing on the European Tour and its satellite Challenge Tour. He used a win in August on the main tour, at the Made In Denmark tournament, to climb inside the top 200 in the world. And then he closed 2017 with four more top-10s to sneak all the way up to No. 62 in the OWGR. Suri has not played since finishing runner-up at the Hong Kong Open just after Thanksgiving.
Francesco Molinari - $7,400 (50-1)
This is a ridiculously low price for the 22nd-ranked golfer in the world, one who tied for 14th here a year ago. At solo eighth, Molinari finished just ahead of Tiger Woods at the Hero World Challenge in early December, his most recent start.
Long-Shot Values
Hunter Mahan - $7,000 (200-1)
Through Mahan's game has declined steadily over the years, he has still made 11 straight cuts at Torrey Pines. Even last season, which he opened with five consecutive trunk slams, he made to the weekend and finished T67. This season, for the first time in a while, Mahan's game has been on the upswing. He has made four of six cuts, and he even opened the wraparound schedule with a pair of top-20s. Mahan ranks 39th in strokes gained: off the tee.
Tyrone Van Aswegen - $6,900 (Field, 6-1)
The veteran South African made it six cashes in seven starts this season with last week's T36 at La Quinta. Van Aswegen made the cut in three of his four trips to La Jolla, highlighted by last year's T20. He ranks 24th in strokes gained: around the green, a skill that should serve him well this week.
Stewart Cink - $6,800 (125-1)
The veteran ranks T7 on Tour in par-4 450-500. He's been feast or famine the past six years at Torrey Pines, mixing two top-20s, including last year's T20, while also missing three cuts. Cink has been steady this season, making five of six cuts, including last week's T20 at La Quinta.
Kelly Kraft - $6,800 (Field, 6-1)
Kraft was five for five in cuts made during the wraparound portion of the schedule before missing the weekend in his last start, the Sony Open. He ranks T26 in par-4, 450-500. Kraft has made the cut in both visits to the Farmers, T28 last year and T31 the year before.
