DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Tournament of Champions

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

Tournament Preview

When we last saw golf here in the States*, it was as if Christmas had come a few weeks early and, lo and behold, there was Tiger Woods sitting under the tree. The excitement for golf's return has grown ever since Woods appeared at the Hero World Challenge healthier than he has been in years.

Now 2018 is here, and we begin with the traditional lid-lifter, the Tournament of Champions. No, Woods of course will not be a part of the 34-man field, but his next appearance may not be too far off, perhaps next month at Riviera, if not sooner. Who knows – will Woods qualify for next year's TOC? (Not that he'd show up, but still quite the question.)

For now, we are left with a still-pretty-dang-intriguing tournament at Kapalua, with seven of the top eight in the OWGR on hand, including the top-five: Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Hideki Matsuyama. Not too shabby. Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia and Henrik Stenson are the only qualifiers taking a pass.

Last year, Thomas bombed (and finessed) his way to a three-stroke win over Matsuyama. Ten golfers are back from the 2017 field, but only three have played the last two years – Thomas, 2016 champion Spieth and Johnson, who won in 2013. That shows just how hard it is to win even once per year on the PGA Tour.

Kapalua is the perfect antidote for golf fans trudging through an icy cold winter, with magnificent vistas of ocean paradise. The Plantation Course has gotten a reputation as a bomber's track, as it has become synonymous with 400-yard drives. But the course plays much shorter than it appears, with massive elevation drops buoying distances and super wide fairways allowing for extreme aggressiveness. History shows that shorter hitters have thrived, and won, by negotiating all the nuances around and on the enormous greens. We'll touch on that more in the key stats and Champion's Profile below.
Weather-wise, it will be warm and windy. The forecast calls for wind in the upper-teens mph all four days. Not to get overly meteorological, but the wind will be coming out of the east (ENE to be precise), a direction that the experts say further shortens the course. Last year, and most years, Kapalua played as the easiest course on Tour.

* – Yes, the Hero was in the Bahamas, not the States, and, yes, there was more golf the rest of the year, mostly in Asia and Australia. But for many U.S.-based golf and fantasy golf fans, the Hero serves as the de facto year-ender.

Key Stats to Winning at Kapalua (in order of importance)

• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Proximity to the hole/strokes gained approach
• Scrambling/strokes gained around the green
• Birdie or better percentage

Past Champions

2017 - Justin Thomas
2016 - Jordan Spieth
2015 - Patrick Reed
2014 - Zach Johnson
2013 - Dustin Johnson
2012 - Steve Stricker
2011 - Jonathan Byrd
2010 - Geoff Ogilvy
2009 - Geoff Ogilvy
2008 - Daniel Chopra

Champion's Profile

When we look back at the eight winners this decade, some hit the ball far off the tee, some didn't. But they collectively excelled in their short game: proximity to the hole, scrambling and, especially, putting. The fairways are some 50-60 yards wide, roughly double what the golfers see most of the year, and the greens are enormous by Tour standards, averaging more than 7,000 square feet. Every winner since 2010 has finished top-10 in putting average – the last two, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, were first. Larger greens normally weed out the poor putters. Six of the eight champions have finished top-three in scrambling – golfers won't miss many greens this week, but when they do, getting up-and-down is far from a given. And seven of the eight winners have ended up top-10 in proximity. Greens in regulation is not a key stat for one of the few times all season. Getting close to the pin is what we're focusing on this week. Getting in the right spot and figuring out the many nuances of the putting surfaces are what determines the winner. That's why course knowledge is viewed with such importance here. No TOC rookie has won since Daniel Chopra in 2008. But with such a small, no-cut field, it's certainly possible for a first-timer to secure a high finish.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

Tier 1 Values

Justin Thomas - $11,100 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 6-1)

If there's one course all season that rewards aggressiveness, it's Kapalua. As we learned last season, Thomas thrives on courses that aren't too penal off the tee. Yes, he improved his fairway accuracy as the season progressed, but he is at his best when he can just let fly. In winning last year, Thomas was third in driving distance, third in proximity and first in putting average.

Jordan Spieth - $10,900 (6-1)

Spieth has played this tournament three times and finished in the top-3 every time. He won here two years ago with a whopping 30-under total, eight shots clear of the field. We went back and forth between Spieth and Dustin Johnson, but ultimately Spieth's superior putting made our decision for us.

Tier 2 Values

Marc Leishman - $9,000 (20-1)

A big man with great touch, Leishman was one of the hottest guys going from the playoffs into the fall season. After winning the BMW Championship, he lost to Thomas in a playoff in South Korea and then tied for fourth at the Australian PGA in early December. Leishman did not have strong proximity numbers last season, but he was ranked 17th in strokes gained around the green and 37th in strokes gained putting. He's played Kapalua once before, tying for 23rd in 2013.

Brian Harman - $8,700 (30-1)

You want to play elite putters this week and Harman is one of the best. He's third in strokes gained putting so far this season and was fifth last season. Importantly, he's seen Kapalua before, finishing 17th three years ago. We can't help but recall how Harman played another long course with wide-open fairways – Erin Hills – where Harman tied for second at the U.S. Open last summer.

Tier 3 Values

Kevin Kisner - $8,400 (25-1)

Kisner finished ninth in his one and only trip to Kapalua back in 2016. He was well behind Spieth's runaway total, but he did finish second in the field in proximity and third in strokes gained putting. And, like Harman, Kisner was in contention throughout at Erin Hills.

Cameron Smith - $7,600 (30-1)

Here's a case of the odds not being in sync with the DraftKings price – the oddsmakers like Smith more, and that catches our eye. Smith was pretty active during the fall, as many Australians tend to be, and he's riding a streak of four straight top-five cashes. Smith played well at two PGA Tour events in Asia, then headed home and tied for fourth at the Australian Open before winning the Australian PGA. He now stands at a career-best 61st in the OWGR. Last season, Smith was ranked eighth on the PGA Tour in putting average.

Long-Shot Values

Bryson DeChambeau - $7,000 (60-1)

DeChambeau notched three top-20s in the fall season. He ranks 41st in proximity so far this season. His putting is far from strong, but you aren't going to find too many good putters in the lower prices. DeChambeau does the other stuff pretty well. And if you want some odd connection, here it is: DeChambeau got here by winning the John Deere, and this tournament has been won four times by Deere winners in the past seven years: Spieth, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker and Jonathan Byrd. (No, we don't think DeChambeau will win.)

Wesley Bryan - $6,200 (125-1)

At this bargain-basement price, Bryan is a steal. He's a well-known master wedge player and not-so-well-known pretty good putter. Bryan tied for 47th in proximity last year and was 45th in strokes gained putting, with both positions improving as the season went on. With many short par-4s, wedge play will take on added importance this week.