This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $7.7M
Winner's Share: $1.386M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Charlotte, N.C.
Course: Quail Hollow Club
Yardage: 7,554
Par: 71
2017 champion: Brian Harman
Tournament Preview
Last week, the PGA Tour stopped in the Big Easy. This week, nothing will be easy. The Wells Fargo Championship returns to Quail Hollow Club, the biggest brute of a course on the entire golf calendar. It hosted the PGA Championship last summer, and it was by far the toughest track the golfers saw all season, nearly a half shot harder than Augusta. Now, it's back less than a year later for the Wells Fargo, which was diverted to Eagle Point in 2017. So, first things first: disregard last year's Wells Fargo event. Quail Hollow was made over for the PGA, adding yardage while being reduced to a par-71. That means all the bombers who for years feasted on the four par-5s now have only three to chew on. That is a huge difference.
Quail Hollow is all about hitting driver, which means it will be very interesting to see how Tiger Woods does this week. Woods, the 2007 Wells Fargo champ, is ranked 152nd on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee and an unimaginable 203rd in driving accuracy. Gamers, this seems like a good week to keep Tiger in the bag. Even without Woods, the field is solid a week before THE PLAYERS Championship, with 12 of the top 20 in the OWGR on hand. Justin Thomas, who won the PGA last year, has a great chance to overtake idle Dustin Johnson atop the rankings this week. The top of the OWGR is so bunched that any of the top seven could be No. 1 at the end of THE PLAYERS a fortnight from now. That includes No. 6 Rickie Fowler and No. 7 Rory McIlroy, both former Wells Fargo champions. No. 19 Phil Mickelson has never won at Quail Hollow despite six top-5 finishes through the years. He's back to try again.
While it's nice to see a deep and star-studded field, we quite frankly can't stop talking about the course. Half the holes are par-4s of at least 450 yards (okay, one of them is 449). Three of the par-3s exceed 200 yards, with No. 6 topping out at a just-not-fair 249 yards. And then there's the famed Green Mile, the closing three-hole stretch for which any golfer would sign up right now for par-par-par. The key to Quail Hollow success used to be the par-5s -- birdie them, take your pars most everywhere else -- but with only three of them there is a greater emphasis on the long par-4s. Even when there were four par-5s, sometimes the winning score was in single digits. That tells you all you need to know about Quail Hollow.
Weather-wise, the first two days could be scorchers, with temperatures approaching 90. But there's no chance of rain until the weekend and the wind, for now, is forecast to be especially light all tournament.
Key Stats to Winning at Quail Hollow
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Driving distance/strokes gained: off the tee
• Ball striking/Strokes gained: tee to green
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards
Past Champions
2017 - Brian Harman
2016 - James Hahn
2015 - Rory McIlroy
2014 - J.B. Holmes
2013 - Derek Ernst
2012 - Rickie Fowler
2011 - Lucas Glover
2010 - Rory McIlroy
2009 - Sean O'Hair
2008 - Anthony Kim
Champion's Profile:
Long, long and long. Did we mention long? At nearly 7,600 yards, Quail Hollow favors the big hitters. Three of the past four winners at this course -- J.B. Holmes, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, at the PGA -- led the field in driving distance. McIlroy shot a tournament-record 21-under in 2015, but those days are likely over since he did so by shooting 13-under on the par-5s alone. Now, with only three par-5s, the emphasis shifts to long-iron play on the many long par-4s, some of which exceed 500 yards. Thomas' winning score at the PGA, albeit at a course expected to play a bit harder than this week's layout, was 8-under; he played the par-5s in 7-under. Putting matters, and it always matters, but there is such a premium on getting the ball long and far off the tee, and preferably straight, that we'd gladly take a great ball striker who's a subpar putter than the other way around.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Justin Thomas - $11,300 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 10-1)
Surprisingly, Thomas is the No. 2 price on the DraftKings board. We don't see how he's not No. 1. That distinction goes to Rory McIlroy. We know McIlroy's track record here, but there is one fewer par-5 and, quite frankly, we want to see how he responds in his first start since that Sunday beatdown by Patrick Reed at the Masters. Thomas said recently that his desire to become No. 1 affected his game and played with his head, but we suspect he now has that under control. With top-10 rankings in driving distance, strokes gained: tee to green, ball striking and par-4 450-500 scoring, we also suspect there will be a new No. 1 in golf come Sunday evening.
Rickie Fowler - $11,100 (10-1)
Quail Hollow is home of Fowler's first Tour title back in 2012. Remarkably, he's gotten only three more since, but he has come close again at this course, tying for fifth at last year's PGA and fourth at the 2016 Wells Fargo. This will be Fowler's first start since his runner-up at the Masters. He ranks only 110th on Tour in driving distance, but he improves to T15 in ball striking and is 10th in GIR.
Jason Day - $10,200 (20-1)
Day continues to fly under the radar, and his ownership could be lower than most of the top DK options. Day ranks first on Tour in total driving and strokes gained: putting. His trouble spot this season has been on second shots, so this selection carries some risk. But he also ranks 25th in par-4 450-500, and no doubt his putter has helped him there. Day was T9 at the PGA last year and at his most recent Wells Fargo back in 2012. His only two finishes outside the top-25 this season have come in the Match Play and last week's Zurich. So he's 6-for-6 in good ol' stroke-play tournaments.
Patrick Reed - $9,700 (20-1)
We generally like to steer clear of a guy for a while after at breakthrough win -- first title, first major, etc. But Reed is a different animal. He smartly waded back into golf at the low-pressure Zurich last week. Reed was playing so well leading up to Augusta with three top-10s in a row, plus he was co-runner-up to Thomas last year the PGA and likely will be motivated this week by playing the first two days with Woods. Reed's numbers are not off the charts -- for instance, 25th in strokes gained: tee to green. Basically, he a guy not to be exclusively quantified with numbers. That said, he's one of only six guys on Tour under par on par-4s of 450-500 yards.
Tier 2 Values
Phil Mickelson - $9,200 (25-1)
There aren't many golfers with a worse ranking in driving accuracy than Tiger Woods' 203rd. Mickelson, at 209th, is one of them. But Mickelson has great body of work at Quail Hollow, with six top-5s in his past 10 visits. At that point, we stopped looking at Phil's stats.
Tommy Fleetwood - $9,100 (25-1)
If Fleetwood could putt from inside 10 feet, he'd probably be ranked No. 1 in the world. He's third in strokes gained: off the tee, fourth in SG tee to green and 10th in SG around the green. But he's an eye-popping 176th in putting inside 10 feet -- while ranking 22nd from 10-15 feet and 13th from 20-25. As we mentioned earlier, we'll sacrifice some putting this week for tee-to-green play.
Tony Finau - $8,700 (30-1)
Finau is another guy who can't hit it straight -- off the tee or on the green. He's second on Tour in driving distance, 200th in accuracy. But as we are seeing more and more in golf, when you hit it that far, accuracy can take a back seat. Finau is 11th in strokes gained: tee to green. He tied for 12th at the Masters and seems none the worse for wear after his gruesome-looking ankle injury at Augusta.
Tier 3 Values
Bryson DeChambeau - $8,000 (40-1)
DeChambeau is no longer a hidden gem, elevating in price and DFS popularity. In recent play, his T38 at the Masters sandwiches a runner-up at Bay Hill and T3 at Harbour Town. DeChambeau is ranked T12 on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green and 14th in off the tee. He tied for 33rd last year at the PGA.
Keegan Bradley - $7,800 (100-1)
When you hear anyone anywhere say, "The guy just couldn't make a putt," chances are they were talking about Bradley. He's ranked 210th in strokes gained: putting, literally destroying an otherwise stellar golf game. Bradley is tied for second on Tour -- second! -- in ball striking. He's fourth -- fourth! -- in strokes gained: approach. He's seventh -- seventh! -- in strokes gained: tee to green. Bradley hasn't had a top-25 since his T5 in January at Torrey Pines, another long course that puts tee-to-green play at a premium. We would've liked to have seen Bradley about $400-$500 cheaper, but he has to deliver one of these days. Bradley was T33 last year at the PGA.
Emiliano Grillo - $7,700 (60-1)
Grillo has a bunch of high finishes over the past several months: T12 at Torrey Pines, T8 at the Honda, T3 at Houston and most recently T16 at Hilton Head. He's among the most accurate off the tee, ranked 15th on Tour, and even though he's not long, he's not short either. It all adds up to rankings of fifth in ball striking, 16th in strokes gained: off the tee, 30th in tee to green. Grillo is definitely over his sophomore slump.
Byeong Hun An - $7,600 (60-1)
An is an example of someone who's whole curiously doesn't add up to the sum of his parts. He's ranked top-30 in driving distance, ball striking, strokes gained: off the tee, SG approach and SG tee to green. And his putting isn't bad. Yet he has missed four cuts in 11 starts and has only two top-10s. One of them, however, came in his last stroke-play event at Harbour Town. An was T28 last year at the PGA.
Luke List - $7,400 (60-1)
Sheesh, one bad week and all the love for List is gone. The man missed the cut at the Valero and now he's down toward the bottom of Tier 3. Just the week before he was T3 at Hilton Head. List ranks eighth in strokes gained: off the tee and sixth tee to green. Yes, he missed the cut at last year's PGA and the 2016 Wells Fargo, but this is a different guy.
Long-Shot Values
Kevin Streelman - $7,200 (60-1)
Streelman posted top-10s in his past two starts and has finished among the top 15 in three of his past four visits to Quail Hollow. He's tied for second on Tour in ball striking and second in GIR, plus top-25 in driving accuracy, strokes gained: off the tee and SG tee to green. We'd be stunned if this play doesn't pay off.
Dylan Frittelli - $7,100 (100-1)
The South African is trying to make a go of it on the PGA Tour the hard way, via sponsor exemptions. He has another one this week. He just missed a spot in next week's PLAYERS with an OWGR ranking of 53rd, which is far higher than other golfers in his price range. Frittelli has top-20s in two of his seven PGA Tour starts, including T20 last time out at the Valero. In limited play, he is ranked 19th on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee and 32nd in par-4 450-500. Frittelli was 63rd in last year's PGA.
Grayson Murray - $6,900 (100-1)
Murray plays every bit as wild as he Tweets -- he's 22nd in driving distance and 158th in accuracy. In 14 starts, half of them are top-25s and the other half are outside the top-65. There's no in-between with this guy. He was 22nd last year at the PGA.
Joaquin Niemann - $6,800 (125-1)
We took an educated flyer on the 19-year-old Chilean in his pro debut two weeks ago at the Valero, and he delivered with a solo sixth. We still don't have much to go by, but Niemann was 13th in the Valero field in driving distance, T3 in GIR and 12th in strokes gained: putting. There are bound to be some hard lessons ahead for the teenager, but at this price, we're all-in again this week.
