This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Honda Classic – Palm Beach Gardens, FL
PGA National Champion Course (7,110 yards, par 70)
$6.6M Purse
$1,188,000 and 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner
Tournament Preview
Out of the West Coast swing and into the Florida Swing goes the PGA Tour, with the Honda Classic kicking off play in the Sunshine State this week. With this location shift come regional nuances such as the switch from West Coast poa annua to East Coast Bermuda, which can be an adjustment for those playing in recent weeks. Ten of the top 25 players in the world are present this week in a star-studded field that showcases the likes of Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, and Sergio Garcia. Behind the course design is Hall of Famer Jack Nicklaus, who redesigned PGA National in 2002 and began hosting the Honda Classic in 2007. Since then, the Champion course has played as one of the ten toughest courses on the PGA Tour. Notoriously difficult is the famous "Bear Trap", holes 15, 16, and 17, which features two forced carry par-3's and a challenging par-4 where watery graves can happen to even the world's best. Birdies will be fewer and big numbers will be common, so strap up your laces and brace yourself for plenty of scoring swings down the home stretch at the Honda Classic.
Recent Past Champions
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 – Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Rory Sabbatini
2010 – Camilo Villegas
2009 – Y.E. Yang
2008 – Ernie Els
Key Stats to Winning this Week
• Greens in Regulation percentage
• Scrambling
• Par-4 Scoring Average
Champion's Profile
Unique to only a few courses on TOUR, PGA National has historically identified two player profiles that can thrive here: tee-to-green ballstrikers (Fowler, Scott, McIlroy, Villegas, Els) and short-game gurus (Harrington, Henley, Thompson, Yang) . A combination of accurate driving and greens in regulation are critical at PGA National due to many forced carries over water and hazardous bunkers surrounding the greens. When missed greens occur, as they inevitably do here, scrambling to minimize damage is what keeps players in the hunt. Another underrated factor to consider is previous performance on Bermuda courses; players who are familiar with playing in the southeastern U.S. tend to fare better on the sticky Bermuda grasses, especially around the greens. As a course with just two par-5 holes and some very difficult par-3s, a high volume of birdies is not necessary, which favors the conservative, steady players (sounds a lot like Jack Nicklaus, right?!). Those who strike it well tee to green and minimize high scores with great scrambling will find themselves in the mix on this tough par-70 layout.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rickie Fowler, $12300 – Last year he stomped the field by four shots and returns as the clear favorite this year with a great track record and solid form entering the event. Fowler is second this season in par-4 scoring average, which should again bode well for him at PGA National, which features 12 par-4s, two more than a typical venue.
Justin Thomas, $12100 – JT has two missed cuts and a third-place finish at PGA National, but don't let his up-and-down results turn you away from one of the best in the field. Thomas has morphed into a better player each year and his maturity should land him much closer to another top-5 than a missed cut this week.
Sergio Garcia, $11900 – Making his first PGA Tour start on U.S. soil this year, Sergio should have plenty of confidence on a venue where he has notched three top-15s in his last four trips. After winning the Masters last year, Sergio appears to be a much more relaxed player who is more likely to raise a trophy come Sunday.
Tyrell Hatton, $10600 – A European Tour staple, Hatton will make his first PGA Tour start this season at the course he finished fourth at last year. Hatton is a great putter who recently finished third at the Dubai Desert Classic, making him worth strong consideration this week.
Longer Shots Worth a Risk
Russell Knox, $9400 – Knox has proven his worth at PGA National, netting a pair of top-3 finishes in 2014 & 2015, respectively. His combination of strong driving accuracy and par-4 scoring making him a great value pick at $9400.
Scott Stallings, $8700 – Stallings doesn't necessarily pop as a player who fits the course perfectly, but his recent trend of three straight top-25s including a fourth last week at Riviera trump his lackluster course fit. In the last three weeks driving accuracy, greens in regulation, and putting has all drastically improved, and all these are key elements to scoring at PGA National.
Stewart Cink, $8600 – The Georgia Tech alum has proven fond of Florida courses, which has translated in making his last six cuts at PGA National. Though likely not a contender for victory, Cink represents a great roster filler who is likely to make the cut with upside for a top-25 finish.
Luke List, $8300 – List put up a top-10 here in 2016 and made the cut in 2017, so there's reason to believe the long-hitter has some upside at $8300 this week. Lately his greens in regulation percentage has been solid and last week at Riviera his putter showed positive strokes gained, so if he can keep up these trends he may turn some heads this weekend.
Strategy Tips for this week (based on 60k standard salary cap)
With a dual profile of players types who can succeed this week, it's a good idea to split up your eggs in different baskets, choosing a few great short game artists along with some great ballstrikers. Having a solid course knowledge at PGA National means quite a bit, so make sure your lineup has mostly guys who have played here a few times and at least shown glimpses of success in terms of top finishes.
