This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Tournament of Champions – Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii
Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (7,452 yards, par 73)
$6.3M Purse
$1.26M and 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner
Tournament Preview
New title sponsor Sentry has now taken over the PGA Tour's Tournament of Champions event, which honors 2017's champions as the PGA Tour "restarts" it's 2017-18 wraparound season this week. Many players are entering off extended breaks, meaning recent form has low influence, it's more about how well players can shake off the cobwebs of limited competition in recent weeks. Fourteen of the field's 34 entrants are first-timers at Kapalua, but the remaining return visitors make the field a strong one. Marquee names Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson highlight a group of seven players ranked in the top eight in the year's final world rankings. The Plantation course is rare in that it plays to a par 73 and possesses just three par-3s instead of the customary four. This week the typical northeastern trade winds are expected to kick up, but it's still reasonable to expect the champion to challenge 20-under par on the pushover Plantation course.
Recent Past Champions
2017 – Justin Thomas
2016 – Jordan Spieth
2015 – Patrick Reed
2014 – Zach Johnson
2013 – Dustin Johnson
2012 – Steve Stricker
2011 – Jonathan Byrd
2010 – Geoff Ogilvy
2009 – Geoff Ogilvy
2008 – Daniel Chopra
Key Stats to Winning at Kapalua
• Par-4 Scoring Average
• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• 3-putt avoidance
Champion's Profile
At 7,452 yards, a common misconception at Kapalua is that par-73 layout is a bomber's paradise, but outside of Justin Thomas last year and Dustin Johnson in 2013, all past champs have been shorter hitters off the tee. While it's true that bombers have little to worry about with generous fairways and short rough, the real key to this track is hitting tight approaches and putting lights out.
Green sizes at the Plantation course average a sizable 7,100 square feet compared to the PGA Tour average of 6,600. This means most players will hit tons of greens in regulation, but there's greater opportunity to start further from the hole and three-putt, so players who avoid this will have an advantage. Given the ease of the venue, players must capitalize on the close birdie opportunities under 15 feet to have any chance at contending for victory. Considering the last 19 champions here (since 1999) have rated fourth or better in putts per round, it's easy to see how important great putting is at Kapalua. With 20 mph winds in the forecast for the week, great putting becomes even more important to scoring.
FANDUEL VALUE PICKS
The Chalk
Dustin Johnson, $12,500 – Topping the salary list again this week is Johnson, who won the wind-shortened 2013 TOC event and boasts at least four more years of experience at this venue than anyone in the field. Although he'll gain plenty on the field from tee to green, his services are only worth his salary if he can post a top-3 finish, which has occurred once in seven tries. His putting remains the key to victory, especially on the huge green complexes at Kapalua.
Jordan Spieth, $12,300 – Spieth torched the Tournament of Champions field in 2016 by eight shots, and has proven he's a force at Kapalua with top-3s in each of his three career starts. Spieth is about as ironclad of a pick as you can get this week.
Justin Thomas, $12,200 – Last year's POY started his season with an unprecedented back-to-back win in Hawaii, and will look to make it three straight in Hawaii this week. Thomas is an incredibly safe consensus pick but is well worth the salary.
Rickie Fowler, $12,000 – Recently won the Hero World challenge with a Sunday 61 after a runner-up at the OHL Classic in the start prior to the win. Has the distance and incredible putting to tame the trade winds at Kapalua, proven by his top-6 finishes in both career appearances.
Longer Shots Worth a Risk
Patrick Cantlay, $9,300 – Gaining entry through his maiden victory at the Shriner's just two months ago, Cantlay enters with confidence and upside potential in his first time at Kapalua. Four guaranteed rounds make him almost a shoe-in to your lineup given his reasonable salary.
Brian Harman, $9,200 – Posted a middling T17 in his previous trip to Kapalua, but holds many of the factors necessary to compete. Harman's game has really seen growth in the last 12 months with a win at the Wells Fargo, near-win at the U.S. Open and top-8 finishes his last three events.
Xander Schauffele, $8,700 – Two wins including a huge one at the 2017 Tour Championship cemented Rookie of the Year honors for Schauffele, who collected another top-5 finish this fall. Although very high expectations are in store for his sophomore season, he should start off the calendar year with at least a middling finish this week.
Cameron Smith, $8,200 – Smith tag-teamed a victory at the Zurich Classic with teammate Jonas Blixt to qualify for this week, but the youngster has done plenty on his own, including top-5s in his last two starts in the fall. Don't expect a top finish for Smith, but anything inside the top-10 would be well worth his salary.
Strategy Tips for This Week (based on 60k standard salary cap)
Given the uniqueness of four guaranteed rounds in a 34-player field, this week's FanDuel games only require you to select six players instead of the customary eight. Limited slots make it that much harder to differentiate and many teams will be identical, but stick to your guns and don't worry too much about the differentiation factor this week. The key will be finding the one or two lower-tier guys who excel, and players like Harman, Schauffele and a few select others are the most likely candidates to do that.
