This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Valero Texas Open
Course: TPC San Antonio Oaks Course (7,438 yards, par 72)
Purse: $8,600,000
Winner: $1,548,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
After a fun week of match play featuring the majority of the top 64 players in the OWGR, the PGA Tour makes the trip from Austin to San Antonio for a full-field event and traditional 72-hole stroke play. The Texas Open is one of the longest running events on the calendar with 2022 marking the 100-year anniversary of the first playing of the tournament. The event has seen a number of great champions over the years with Arnold Palmer and Justin Leonard sharing the award for most wins with three apiece.
TPC San Antonio has been the host for the Valero Texas Open since 2010 and will remain as the final tune-up for the Masters for the foreseeable future. There are not a lot of similarities between here and Augusta, but it's hard to get any better prep than competitive reps under pressure on the weekend. Jordan Spieth broke through for his first win on the PGA Tour in nearly four years last season at the Valero Texas Open and then rode that to a T3 finish at the Masters. Corey Conners won the previous edition back in 2019 when he became the first player in nine years to Monday qualify and go on to win the event. Conners is coming off a third place finish at the WGC-Match Play last week. Rory McIlroy on the other hand skipped the match play and will be making his first appearance at the Valero Texas Open since he finished runner-up back in 2013. Hideki Matsuyama will also be in the field in San Antonio as he gears up to defend his Masters win next week. Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, and Abraham Ancer are some other notables teeing it up and looking to find form going into Augusta.
It's going to be another hot week with temperatures in the high 80's throughout the tournament. The course should play pretty firm with no rain expected to fall. The traditional Texas winds should be present with the highest of which coming on Friday where it is projected for gusts up to 25 miles per hour. The scoring has been better at TPC San Antonio lately with the winning score being at least 17-under-par each of the last three editions. The winner broke 12-under-par just once in the prior seven tournaments, however.
Recent Champions
2021 – Jordan Spieth (-18)
2020 – None
2019 – Corey Conners (-20)
2018 – Andrew Landry (-17)
2017 – Kevin Chappell (-12)
2016 – Charley Hoffman (-12)
2015 – Jimmy Walker (-11)
2014 – Steven Bowditch (-8)
2013 – Martin Laird (-14)
2012 – Ben Curtis (-9)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Tee-to-Green
- GIR Percentage
- Scrambling
- Par-5 Scoring
Champion's Profile
TPC San Antonio has typically always favored those who are striking the ball well. The firmness of the fairways and greens combined with the winds make it tricky to get around here. The primary rough is up a bit from last year to 2.5 inches, but still won't be as penal as some of the deep fairways bunkers on the course. The greens here are on the larger end and feature quite a bit of undulation, which allows for many different hole locations. At the same time, if you misjudge the wind and catch a slope you are going to be left with a difficult two-putt. The greens will be maintained to run no faster than 11.5 on the Stimpmeter. Scrambling numbers can't be overlooked here either. There is a good combination of tricky closely mown areas and bunkers around the greens that will challenge the best in the world. Lastly, the winners here have all performed really well for the most part on the par-5s. The quartet grades out as some of the most difficult on the PGA Tour. That is because for a lot of the field, a good drive doesn't guarantee you will be able to reach the green in two on any of them. Solid wedge play will be key to scoring on the long holes this week.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Gary Woodland ($10,800)
Other than being on the wrong side of the draw at THE PLAYERS, Woodland is showing signs of getting back to the form he was in when he won the 2019 U.S. Open. He notched a pair of top-5s and a T21 in his last four starts and is now top-45 on Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Tee-to-Green, proximity to the hole and par-5 scoring average. The Kansas product notched a sixth-place finish a year ago at TPC San Antonio.
Adam Hadwin ($10,700)
Hadwin has been rolling as of late with top-26 finishes in five of his last seven starts, including top-10s in his last two. He ranks top-40 this season in a number of key stats such as SG: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Tee-to-Green, GIR percentage, proximity to the hole and scrambling. Hadwin was T23 a year ago at TPC San Antonio.
Chris Kirk ($10,500)
Kirk is playing some great golf this season. He went T14-T7-T5 before he was caught on the wrong side of the draw at THE PLAYERS. Kirk is gaining strokes in every area and is 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green. The 36-year-old has always played well at TPC San Antonio with four career top-15 finishes.
Kevin Streelman ($10,300)
Streelman is 6-for-6 in his career at TPC San Antonio with four top-15 finishes. After a bit of a slow start to the season, the 43-year-old has gotten things in gear with top-25s in three of his last four starts, including a T7 at the Valspar. Streelman led the field in scrambling at Innisbrook and was ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green as well.
Longer Shots with Value
Luke List ($9,900)
Since List got that breakthrough win at Torrey Pines, well it hasn't been pretty but he did look a lot better last week in Austin despite not advancing from his group. It's really hard to look at List's numbers and not be excited for his potential at TPC San Antonio. He ranks sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 13th in SG: Approach, 16th in SG: Around, first in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth in driving distance and fifth in GIR percentage. List finished top-20 here last year.
Lucas Glover ($9,000)
For as long as Glover as been on Tour for, TPC San Antonio had not been a regular stop for him, but that has changed with him playing in the last two editions and going T14-T4. It's not a surprise he played well given his prowess approaching the greens. This season Glover ranks 31st in SG: Approach and fourth in GIR percentage.
Martin Laird ($8,800)
Laird was a bit off his last few starts, but if you just look at his numbers he is a perfect fit for TPC San Antonio. The Scot ranks 21st in SG: Approach, 20th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 28th in driving accuracy and 39th in GIR percentage. Laird is 7-for-8 with a win among four top-20s at TPC San Antonio.
Matthew NeSmith ($8,500)
NeSmith checks in at a great price this week after posting a T3 in his last start at Innisbrook. Approach play will be incredibly important here and there aren't many better in the field than him. NeSmith ranks 24th in SG: Approach and 42nd in GIR percentage. He was T34 in his debut at TPC San Antonio last year.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Despite a few big names near the top, this field is very deep this week. I'm not a huge fan this week of spending on anyone above the $11,000 range. Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, and Tony Finau are not playing well. Corey Conners fits the profile perfectly, but he played a ton of golf in a short amount of time last week. If I am spending up for someone this week, it's Rory McIlroy. He's been in contention several times over the last five months, but just hasn't had the Sunday's to get things done. If it wasn't clear already, ball striking should take precedent over putting at TPC San Antonio, and specifically approach play. It is also a course where we have seen repeat success over time, so I'm definitely weighing course history heavily.
