Humana Challenge Preview: Reed Looks to Back it Up

There are never just two types of anything in this world -- it's too simple. For the sake of argument, though, let's say there is a way to split the PGA Tour down the middle. One popular way to separate players over the years, for strictly analytical purposes, has been those who play well early in the year and those who save their best for the summer and beyond. When looking at these two groups individually, it's easy to see that the reason group A, or the early season success stories, play well is their fondness of the west coast and Hawaii. The courses are different, the grass is different and the greens are different. It makes perfect sense that certain players would thrive in those conditions, yet struggle when presented with a different set of conditions. It's actually something that many of us who follow the PGA Tour take for granted each year -- there are going to be guys who play well early, then fade. Conversely there are those who just can't get it going until the PGA Tour goes down south.

The reason I bring it up this week is because I'm having trouble figuring out Jimmy Walker. He has the look of a player who can thrive under any conditions, but his track record to date indicates that he's an early season player. Considering his success on the PGA Tour reaches back only a couple years, the jury will remain out.

Why is this important? Well, for anyone with Walker on their roster, it's decision time. Is this the peak time to sell or does he have more in the tank this year?

This week: Humana Challenge - PGA West, La Quinta, Calif.

Last Year: Patrick Reed shot a final-round 63 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Ryan Palmer.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Ryan Palmer

Palmer has yet to win this event, but he's come close a few times. His most recent brush with glory came last year when he finished runner-up to Patrick Reed. Palmer's runner-up last year was no fluke, however, as he has finished in the top-6 in three of his last four appearances here.

Patrick Reed

I mentioned last week that I'm generally not fond of taking the defending champ, but it worked out last week, so why not give it a try this week? Reed may not be on quite the roll he was last year at this time, but he's capable of flipping the switch quickly.

Harris English

Not the greatest track record here -- actually, his track record here is pretty lousy -- but English is continually evolving as a player and is becoming a threat every week on the PGA Tour.

Jhonnatan Vegas

Deep sleeper here in Vegas, but he did play fairly well last week and is a previous champion here. In fact, his win here in 2011 was about the last time he resembled a quality PGA Tour player. A trip back to a site where he played well might get him back on track.

Justin Thomas

Thomas appears to be on one of those "rookie rolls," and though it could end at any moment these rolls usually tend to last a few weeks. So even though the clock is ticking, he'll probably be fine this week.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Robert Allenby

I hate to pile on, but did you see what happened to Allenby last week? Physical limitations aside, I have to imagine it's going to be tough to concentrate this week with everyone asking him about his kidnapping.

Mark Wilson

Speaking of piling on and of those who play well early in the season, Wilson again finds himself on the Avoid list. Not because he's in a terrible rut, but because he once played well here and is not likely to do so again. It's simply the nature of his game.

Sean O'Hair

The golf world has waited for the return of O'Hair for years, and it's been disappointed at every turn. What seemed like a promising career is now one of trying to simply maintain his privileges from year to year. He may return to his old form at some point this season, but considering he's 0-3 here, it's not likely to happen this week.

Carl Pettersson

Pettersson is as streaky as they come, so it's always a risk putting him on this list. But he's never played well at this event, so it would seem that I'm safe putting him here this week. You would think that a streaky player like Pettersson would have found some success as some point at this event, but he hasn't.

Carlos Ortiz

After a strong start to his rookie season last fall, Ortiz became the trendy rookie pick to succeed this season, but he failed to make the cut in his first start in 2015 and it could be a sign of things to comen ... for now. It's tough to carry momentum over long breaks and it might take Ortiz some time to find his game again.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Charles Howell III (T26) - $42,280; Season - $610,012

This week: Ryan Palmer - Palmer has a solid track record here, and this might be the best time to use him this season. He's coming off a top 20 last week, so his form appears to be sound.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 338
Rank: 24,095

This Week:

Group A: Harris English, Ryan Palmer

Group B: Matt Kuchar, Phil Mickelson, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson

Group C: Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Charles Howell III (T26); Streak - 2

This week: Matt Jones - Jones has teed it up here five times and has made the weekend every time. In fact, he's finished no worse than T29.