This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
For those of us in the snowy Northeast, we can only dream about sunny and warm Los Angeles. The lights of Hollywood, the mystique of Riviera ... oh sorry, I was just lost in a daydream. Here's this week's stats preview:
History Lesson
The defending champion of the Northern Trust Open is Bubba Watson, who won by two over Dustin Johnson. Watson went onto win the Masters two months later. In 2013, John Merrick beat Charlie Beljan in a playoff, and in 2012 Bill Haas beat Keegan Bradley and Phil Mickelson in an epic playoff.
Out of this group we recommend Watson, Haas and Johnson. Watson won the HSBC Champions event last fall, opened 2015 with a 10th-place finish at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and had a T2 at the Waste Phoenix Open where he shot 65 on Sunday. Watson has a tendency to contend year-after-year at places he likes (see: Augusta), and fourth-place ranking in strokes gained-tee to green and fifth-place standing in strokes gained-total, we like him for statistical reasons as well.
Haas, meanwhile, won the Humana Challenge and tied for 19th at the Farmers Insurance Open. He ranks 33rd in total driving efficiency. But beware -- he told the assembled media Tuesday that his wife is set to give birth next Friday, and an early birth could shorten his stay in LA. So if make sure you're covered if Haas has to pull out.
Johnson went from a missed cut in San Diego to a T4
For those of us in the snowy Northeast, we can only dream about sunny and warm Los Angeles. The lights of Hollywood, the mystique of Riviera ... oh sorry, I was just lost in a daydream. Here's this week's stats preview:
History Lesson
The defending champion of the Northern Trust Open is Bubba Watson, who won by two over Dustin Johnson. Watson went onto win the Masters two months later. In 2013, John Merrick beat Charlie Beljan in a playoff, and in 2012 Bill Haas beat Keegan Bradley and Phil Mickelson in an epic playoff.
Out of this group we recommend Watson, Haas and Johnson. Watson won the HSBC Champions event last fall, opened 2015 with a 10th-place finish at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and had a T2 at the Waste Phoenix Open where he shot 65 on Sunday. Watson has a tendency to contend year-after-year at places he likes (see: Augusta), and fourth-place ranking in strokes gained-tee to green and fifth-place standing in strokes gained-total, we like him for statistical reasons as well.
Haas, meanwhile, won the Humana Challenge and tied for 19th at the Farmers Insurance Open. He ranks 33rd in total driving efficiency. But beware -- he told the assembled media Tuesday that his wife is set to give birth next Friday, and an early birth could shorten his stay in LA. So if make sure you're covered if Haas has to pull out.
Johnson went from a missed cut in San Diego to a T4 finish at Pebble last week. He was sixth in driving distance, 12th in strokes gained-putting and T6 in strokes gained-total. (The latter two stats only include the two rounds played at Pebble Beach.) He's had success on this golf course before - see last year - and this may finally be the week those who have been waiting to put Johnson in the lineup can re-insert him.
Who Is Playing
The field includes -- in addition to the players above -- Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Sergio Garcia in his 2015 debut, Erik Compton, Angel Cabrera, Fred Couples, new Ryder Cup captain Davis Love III, Luke Donald, Ernie Els, Tony Finau, Jim Furyk, Hunter Mahan, Charl Schwartzel, Brandt Snedeker, Webb Simpson, Nick Watney and more.
We love Snedeker, who won last week at Pebble and did it in impressive fashion Sunday, using his newfound swing keys from Butch Harmon to pull away from Watney. In the final-round he gained a total of over 3.3 strokes on the field, helping secure the win.
We also like Spieth, who has success on this course from his collegiate days and finished T7 at Pebble while not feeling at all comfortable with his swing. Give himself some time on the range in LA to fix things, and we really like him this week. Spieth prides himself on never getting that far off, which means he shouldn't be that far off from contending this week.
Overall, we like Garcia and his accuracy on this tough track, but it is his first week back, so player beware, there could be some rust there.
Sunday Surgers in brief: Dustin Johnson -- +13, J.B. Holmes -- +30, Brendon Todd --+30
