PrizePicks Golf: Wells Fargo Championship

This article is part of our PrizePicks Golf series.

This article will mark the first installment of our PGA coverage for PrizePicks, which offers a unique twist on DFS play in the form of Over/Under picks for individual players in almost every sport imaginable. You have the opportunity to pick 2, 3 or 4 players per entry, and the goal is to predict whether the individual player will end up over or under the projected total PrizePicks provides.  For PGA play, you are required to pick at least one Over and one Under play.  The legend for scoring in this format is as follows:

Unlike your usual PGA DFS platforms, PrizePicks offers PGA gameplay on a per-round basis, not for an entire tournament.  So, the projected totals you see today are for the individual rounds on Thursday, and once Thursday's round commences, you will see updated numbers for Friday, and so on.

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For the remainder of the season, I'll be recommending plays for each PGA contest available, and we'll begin our coverage with this weekend's Well Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. For each tournament, I will lay out a selection of Over/Under plays that I recommend, taking into account a host of factors, including course History, relevant Player stats and trends, and the weather forecast, which can positively or negatively affect many players, depending on what time they tee off.

COURSE DETAILS

Course: Quail Hollow Club – Par 71, 7.554 yds.

Location: Charlotte, NC

Field: 156 players

Players will see a vastly different Quail Hollow this year, as the course has undergone a significant renovation since hosting the PGA Championship in 2017.  It's now a Par 71 layout and boasts one of the Tour's longest tracks at 7, 554 yards. As a result, you can pretty much toss out past winner considerations as the course is a different beast and a more difficult test.

Due to the length of the course, I am favoring the long-ball hitters this weekend. If you can't consistently hit the ball 300 yards or more on this layout, the odds are not in your favor.  Unless you are deadly accurate with your long approach shots, shorter hitters will likely be getting Under recommendations from me. As you can see from the scoring legend, PrizePicks gives birdies and eagles a significant reward, and there are three reachable Par 5's on the course where you'll see most of the movement over the weekend.  The Par 4's on the course are long, so the birdie-to par-or-worse ratio will be significant, but won't impact a player's overall score as much as the Par 5's.

Key Statistics

By far the most important stat I'll be weighing this weekend will be the Par 5 Birdie or Better category, which you can find here. I'll also be giving some serious consideration to driving distance and Strokes Gained Off The Tee.  By giving these stats a cursory glance, you'll quickly start to see where I'll be going with some of my recommendations this week.

Weather

At this juncture, the weather does not seem to have much of an impact over the weekend.  There is a possibility of some thunderstorm activity in Charlotte on Friday morning, so the Friday tee times in the late morning or early afternoon could see a softer course, which makes for more Greens in Regulation, but a much slower roll off the tee. This is something to keep an eye on if you elect to play this slate on Friday.

I'll now give you three "Over" selections and three "Under" choices to choose from. These selections are a guide to overall success in the tournament, but keep in mind that you are playing the field on individual days, and not the entire weekend.

Rickie Fowler – 17.5 (OVER)

Although it's a vastly different course, Fowler should feel at home here, as he garnered his first PGA Tour victory on this track in 2012. There's no 'nostalgia' statistic available, but his other stats in the categories I mentioned are pretty strong.  Fowler ranks 13th in P5BOB, 22nd in Driving Distance, and ranks a remarkable 2nd in Par 4 Average, a stat that comes in handy when you consider some of those difficult Par 4's you'll see this weekend.  I think this is a reachable number for Fowler if he can eagle one of the Par 5's and rack up a birdie or two along the way.

Luke List – 16.0 (OVER)

List is a guy that's going to be largely overlooked in standard DFS formats, but if you take a look at his numbers, Quail Hollow is a course that fits his skill set perfectly. He isn't the best putter on the planet, but he ranks 2nd in Driving Distance and 10th in Strokes Gained from off the tee. This should put the Par 5's squarely in play for List.  He's a bit of a riskier play, but the lower O/U line makes him a good value.

Rory McIlroy – 18.5 (OVER)

McIlroy is in a multi-way tie for 3rd in Total Eagles this season, and his number would undoubtedly be higher if he had played more events up to this point.  Like Fowler and List, he's another long-ball hitter who is an accurate iron striker.  While he tends to tank a few holes here and there, he has a good shot at reaching all three Par 5's in two, so the birdie-eagle opportunities will be abundant.  His length will also yield a few birdie opportunities on the Par 4's.

Justin Rose – 17.5 (UNDER)

I think this number is just a little high for Rose, although it's a pick I would fade if you 're playing a Saturday or Sunday slate (assuming he makes the cut).  He's a habitual slow starter, and while he averages over 300 yards off the tee, his overall game has been trending in the wrong direction of late, which is an intangible you have to consider when analyzing these plays.  He's using Quail Hollow as a tune-up for the PGA Championship, so I expect him to take some risks as he continues to search for the sweet spot that eluded him at the Masters, where he missed the cut.

Patrick Reed – 16.0 (UNDER)

Reed ranks a surprising 85th in Driving Distance this season and an incredibly poor 172nd in Driving Accuracy Percentage, which doesn't bode well for Reed on this extremely long track.  The only thing that could save him is a decent Par 4 scoring average of 4.01, as this course should supply some unforgiving bogeys on those holes.  The most telling stat for Rose this weekend is his Par 5 BOB average, which is 62nd on Tour with a 47.86% frequency of going under par on these holes.

Byeong-Hun An – 16.0 (UNDER)

While An has the length to reach the Par 5's, his putter is his Achilles heel. He ranks 141st in total putts per round and an abysmal 172nd in Putts from inside 10 feet -- a pivotal stat when you consider his ability to secure birdies on the Par 5's and/or pars on the Par 4's.  He has the length to get lucky with an eagle here, but lack consistency with the putter should keep his total below this number.