Read The Line Betting Breakdown: BMW Championship

This article is part of our Golf Picks series.

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2023 BMW Championship: On-Site at Olympia Fields

Walking the grounds at Olympia Fields Country Club, I'm happy to report the player experience should be slightly different than the last time the BMW Championship was played on the North Course. The 2020 tournament lacked two things, fans due to covid and birdies. Only five players finished the tournament under par and Jon Rahm needed a playoff to beat Dustin Johnson.

The weather this summer in Chicago has been favorable for growing grass. There's plenty of rough to frame these major championship fairways. Olympia Fields has hosted two US Opens and two PGA Championships. The stern par-70 test looks good. At 7,366 yards covering the course you feel the length. There's little doubt in my mind why Rahm, DJ, Hideki, and Finau finished under par last time. This is a big boy golf course. The 50 players that remain in the playoffs will need to let the driver shaft out and swing away.

Twenty-one of the top 25 in the OWGR are playing. Twenty-four players in the field were here in 2020 for the last BMW Championship. Thirty players will advance to the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club.

Outside of a small chance of rain on Thursday, the forecast is for golf. Temperatures will be in the low 80s and not much of a breeze. The players will be able to take the spotlight on this major stage. Everything about this facility is big. The kiddie pool at the aquatic center is enormous. How many clubhouses have their own signature clock tower. The designated purse is again $20 million and $3.6 million dollars will be awarded for first place.

To give you an idea what these guys dealt with, none of the par-4s played to a stroke average under par in 2020. The two easiest holes were the first and second hole and the first is a 630+ yard par-5. Eight of the par-4s measure over 440 yards and the par-3s average over 200 yards. To say length will be a factor seems redundant on the PGA TOUR, but you must mention it when handicapping this course. Fifteen holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent and with the rough I witnessed around four inches that number might only go higher.

There are 91 bunkers on the North Course and 38 of them will challenge you from off the tee. Eight holes have water in play and the average green size is 5,200 sq/ft. Smaller than average in size, players only hit them 58 percent of the time versus the TOUR average of 66 percent. One element of the playoffs in 2023 has been establishing a sense of urgency. For this first time in the FedEx Cup playoff history, players feel a need to advance. For some this pressure began to build in early July. The Memphis cutoff was significant because it got you into the designated events. Getting into and competing in the Tour Championship secures a spot in all four majors for 2024.

The carrot is out there and twenty more will be cut. Only two made it inside the top 50 from the 51-70 range at the St. Jude. Will more crossover in Chicago? Who will make a serious case to get on Team USA. The Ryder Cup points list will be finalized on BMW Sunday after play. Speculation on the first six of captain Zach Johnson's team will be over and the argument over the next six will fully take hold.

All of this is heading in an exciting direction and therefore warrants a Read the Line win. We are looking for #10 of 2023 and I know being on-site at the BMW for the second year in a row gives us the edge needed to earn it.

2023 BMW Championship: Numbers to Know

BMW's nickname has always been the Ultimate Driving Machine and that's what I think it will take to win in Chicago. These famous fairways aren't super narrow, but if you find yourself outside them, deep trouble lurks. All kidding aside from BMW slogans, this course sets up very similar to TPC Southwind off the tee. It favors a fade biased player in sight and in performance. Simply put, if you like to move the ball left to right as a right-handed player, your eye will be enticed by the North Course. One benefit hearing from the players live is getting an idea of what they are thinking while planning for the week.

Rahm mentioned in 2020 when he had that amazing come-from-behind weekend that his draw was not working. At 6-over-par after two rounds, he wasn't wrong. Going 10-under for the next 36 holes, he found something. He stated, "I didn't play one draw all weekend." When pushed back with a follow up question, he reiterated, "not one." That's significant because when a player can simplify the game it makes their job a whole lot easier.

The average par-4 length on the North Course is 443 yards. On approach the breakdown falls primarily between 150-175 yards. Those mid-irons need to be accurate as we have already established the field misses a bunch of greens. That's the underlying theme of what we will see all week. When Rahm won, he didn't gain more than three strokes in any one strokes gained category. Well-rounded play is the key to contending. Lucas Glover leads the field in the past two weeks, but if we go a little farther back and include more of the season certain players stand out on courses like Olympia Fields.

Oak Hill and Muirfield Village come to mind along with Torrey Pines, Riviera and TPC San Antonio. Courses where you MUST hit the fairway to win. Forget contending, you have to pump it out there long and accurately. Follow that up with grace and touch around the greens. Most Olympia Fields greens are surrounded by long rough and 53 green-side bunkers. Bogey avoidance on this course counts. Think of last week on steroids. Players like Patrick Cantlay become a great option because they can drive it deep and handle those par-saving situations.

A quick comparison of the top 10 from 2020 shows similar data to the analytics provided by Rahm's scorecard. The guys from that group gained an average of 2.0 strokes off the tee, 2.4 strokes on approach, 1.5 strokes around the green and 2.4 strokes with their putters. I look at this every week, and it only comes out this balanced for major championship venues. Even then this level of consistency across all the major categories is why Olympia Fields is widely recognized as one of the top courses in America.

Major champions have always gained an edge through long iron play and incredible short game/putting. Our winner this week will require a similar skill set to tame the North Course and beat the other top-50 players from the 2022-23 wrap-around season. The Big 3 can certainly strike it, but can they close with the flat stick? A lot more questions are left in this season other than captain's picks. I believe this group of guys has most of the answers.

2023 BMW Championship Picks and Odds

Patrick Cantlay (+1100)

Cantlay is the ultimate driving machine. With back-to-back BMW wins on two different golf courses was anyone surprised he showed up last week in Memphis? The fourth ranked golfer in the world excels on difficult golf courses. Feel free to poke holes in his major record, but when it comes to the FedEx Cup playoffs no player has been more impressive in recent history. Only Rory is ranked higher with the driver and McIlroy does not have Cantlay's scrambling ability (ranked sixth). Forget Glover's three-peat, the iceman is coming to Chicago for a three-peat of his own.

Max Homa (+2500)

Homa is building a career year. He defended his title at the Fortinet Championship and then won at Torrey Pines. That second win at the Farmers really catches my attention when you consider the skills needed to succeed at Olympia Fields. He fades the ball off the tee and has eight top 10s since January. Homa's recent play has been very strong finishing 21-12-10-6 in his last four starts That tenth place is significant as it was the Open Championship and his personal best finish in a major. Playing well and getting ready for Rome, Homa is going to "max" out his season with a playoff win.

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