This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
If you were sitting on the 18th tee at Sawgrass or the 17th tee at Augusta, could you find your way into the hole in seven strokes or less? You often hear golf commentators mention a number, a magic number that will likely win the event. More often than not, they are correct in guessing that winning number, which begs the question; do PGA Tour pros also have magic numbers in mind? If so, how difficult is it to stick to the plan and shoot for a number and not play against the competition?
I bring it up because Retief Goosen must have had a number in mind entering the final round of the Northern Trust Open on Sunday, but obviously his plan didn't work. Did it fail because he got off track or did it fail because he started with the wrong number in mind? If Goosen had known at the beginning of the round that a one-over-par 72 would be enough to win on Sunday, would that have changed anything? We'll never know the answer because Goosen would likely never admit what he was actually thinking before the round.
There's more than enough for the average PGA Tour player to think about during a normal round, so adding one more piece of information to the mix, say a number to shoot for, might just be overload, but it is strange to think that the best players in the world can fail knowing that mediocrity, on a given hole
If you were sitting on the 18th tee at Sawgrass or the 17th tee at Augusta, could you find your way into the hole in seven strokes or less? You often hear golf commentators mention a number, a magic number that will likely win the event. More often than not, they are correct in guessing that winning number, which begs the question; do PGA Tour pros also have magic numbers in mind? If so, how difficult is it to stick to the plan and shoot for a number and not play against the competition?
I bring it up because Retief Goosen must have had a number in mind entering the final round of the Northern Trust Open on Sunday, but obviously his plan didn't work. Did it fail because he got off track or did it fail because he started with the wrong number in mind? If Goosen had known at the beginning of the round that a one-over-par 72 would be enough to win on Sunday, would that have changed anything? We'll never know the answer because Goosen would likely never admit what he was actually thinking before the round.
There's more than enough for the average PGA Tour player to think about during a normal round, so adding one more piece of information to the mix, say a number to shoot for, might just be overload, but it is strange to think that the best players in the world can fail knowing that mediocrity, on a given hole or round is enough to win. Perhaps things would have been different if Goosen were in the lead on the final hole knowing a double-bogey would win the tournament. After all, even an amateur could prevail under those conditions, right? Then again, there's a reason the name Jean van de Velde is so well known.
This week: The Honda Classic - PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Last Year: Russell Henley shot a final-round 72 on his way to a playoff victory over three players including Rory McIlroy.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Justin Rose
Rose has yet to win this event or even finish runner-up, but he's had no issues finishing in the top 5 here. His last three tries at the Honda Classic have resulted a solo third, solo fourth and solo fifth.
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy would be atop the list if not for his value later in the season. He won this event three years ago and nearly won last year. He's hands down the best player in the world, and if he's anywhere near the top of his game this week, he'll be a factor.
Paul Casey
Strike while the iron is hot? Why not? Casey is coming off a great showing last week at the NTO, and his track record at this event is pretty solid as well. Casey has finished in the top 15 here in two of his last three starts.
Freddie Jacobson
There are plenty of solid top-tier options this week, but if you are looking for someone outside that group, then Jacobson might be your man. Jacobson has finished in the top 30 in each of his last six tries here, including two top-5s.
Luke Donald
Donald missed the cut last week at the NTO, but he did close with a solid round of 69 on Friday. That momentum along with some good vibes at the Honda Classic might be enough to get him back on track this week. Donald has missed the top 10 here just once in his last five tries.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Phil Mickelson
Mickelson doesn't often play this event, and there's probably a good reason for that. Although he had success early on here, he missed the cut in his most recent appearance last year. If that isn't enough, he's obviously nowhere near the top of his game.
Jason Dufner
Dufner has never missed a cut here, so why is he on the Avoid list? It's his work on the weekend that leaves much to be desired. Dufner's three most recent appearances have resulted in nothing better than a T41.
Rory Sabbatini
Similar to last week, Sabbatini's track record at this event is pretty solid, but once again, he's simply not the player he was even five years ago. Sabbatini actually won this event just four years back, but it's been mostly downhill since.
Vijay Singh
Singh played very well last week, but in the end his age caught up with him. His track record here is pretty solid, but recently he's had some trouble. While Singh might play well this week, his upside, as shown last week, may be limited.
Ernie Els
Els has played well here, but he's coming off an awful showing last week, and I'm not sure his game is where it needs to be entering this week. Els posted rounds of 78 and 76 at the NTO, and while this isn't Riviera, this course isn't a walk in the park either.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Bubba Watson (T14) - $110,550; Season - $1,047,735
This week: Justin Rose - Bubba last week and Rose this week, which is a lot of fire power to burn in consecutive weeks, but Rose looks like the right play this week ... unless you are on Rory, whose the right player every week.
YAHOO PICKS
Points: 998
Rank: 35,051
This Week:
Group A: Rory McIlroy, Luke Donald
Group B: Paul Casey, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Lee Westwood
Group C: Charles Schwartzel, Freddie Jacobson
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: K.J. Choi (T30); Streak - 7
This week: Justin Rose - I got away with not doubling-up last week, but I'm taking no chances this week. Rose is nearly a lock to finish in the top-10, so making the cut shouldn't be an issue.
