Valspar Championship Preview: Luke Not a Fluke at Innisbrook

Valspar Championship Preview: Luke Not a Fluke at Innisbrook

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Time to think is generally the last thing a golfer needs when trying to win an event, but that's only true while on the course. Off the course, it's a different story, and perhaps the time that Dustin Johnson had the last nine months has done him a world of good. Maybe we are making too much of his time off from the PGA Tour, but he certainly looks reinvigorated. What actually happened on his time off we'll never know. Heck, we still aren't sure about the events that led to his suspension/vacation, so how could we possibly know what was running through his mind when he was out of the public eye?

We do know one thing for certain about his time off, though -- he became a father. While that doesn't change every man, it's certainly been known to give many a man some perspective. Is that all Johnson needed to raise his game, a little perspective? While we are pondering that question let's not forget it's still early in the season. How do we know Johnson has turned a corner? That question is actually more difficult than trying to figure out why Johnson appears to be a better player post-layoff. Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his PGA Tour career, most of often early in the season, and while he's quite accomplished, there's always been this feeling that he could do just a little more.

If the early returns are any indication, though, this very well

Time to think is generally the last thing a golfer needs when trying to win an event, but that's only true while on the course. Off the course, it's a different story, and perhaps the time that Dustin Johnson had the last nine months has done him a world of good. Maybe we are making too much of his time off from the PGA Tour, but he certainly looks reinvigorated. What actually happened on his time off we'll never know. Heck, we still aren't sure about the events that led to his suspension/vacation, so how could we possibly know what was running through his mind when he was out of the public eye?

We do know one thing for certain about his time off, though -- he became a father. While that doesn't change every man, it's certainly been known to give many a man some perspective. Is that all Johnson needed to raise his game, a little perspective? While we are pondering that question let's not forget it's still early in the season. How do we know Johnson has turned a corner? That question is actually more difficult than trying to figure out why Johnson appears to be a better player post-layoff. Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his PGA Tour career, most of often early in the season, and while he's quite accomplished, there's always been this feeling that he could do just a little more.

If the early returns are any indication, though, this very well could be the year he puts that notion to rest and captures a major or the money title or the FedEx title, you get the point. Then again, maybe we're over-thinking all of this.

This week:
Valspar Championship - Innisbrook Resort and Golf club (Copperhead Course), Palm Harbor, Fla.

Last Year:
John Senden shot a final-round 70 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Kevin Na.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Luke Donald

Donald's had plenty of ups and downs over the last decade, but not here. Donald has been lights out at this event since 2010. In four starts since 2010, Donald has finished no worse than T6, including a win in 2012.

Retief Goosen

When Goosen was near the top of his game he got around this course in style. Goosen won this event in 2009 and finished in the top 5 a year later. It looks like Goosen has a bit of his game back and with it a decent showing this week should follow.

Jim Furyk

If there's one place where Furyk could break his final-round jinx, this might be it. Furyk won this event in 2010, and though he's struggled to close here since, he usually manages to end up in the top 20. Furyk enters this year's event on a streak of five consecutive top-20s.

Gary Woodland

Woodland broke through at this event in 2011, but injuries wreaked havoc on his game soon after. His performance at this event mirrored his performance on the PGA Tour, and as his game returned last year, his results at this event returned to form as well.

Kevin Streelman

There aren't a lot of great plays this week, so you might have to look at second-tier golfers. Streelman won this event a couple years ago, and while he's been inconsistent the last few years, this might be a good spot to take a chance on him.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Adam Scott

Scott looked pretty good last week, but he's never really fared well at this event, no matter the state of his game. In five starts at this event, Scott has fared no better than T28. Although he's played fairly well on the weekend here, he missed the cut twice in only five tries.

Carl Pettersson

Pettersson won this event about a decade ago, but he's been wildly inconsistent here since. In 12 starts at this event, Pettersson made the cut just six times. If he does happen to make the cut this week, he'll likely play well, but considering he's 50/50 to make the cut ...

Ryan Moore

Moore played pretty well last week, but his game fell off a bit Sunday and he's heading back to a location where he's had little success over the years. Moore missed the cut his last two times at this event.

Justin Rose

Rose has a solid track record here, but there's something off about his game. Maybe it's his hand, maybe it's something else altogether, but now is not the time to take a chance on Rose.

Matt Kuchar

Kuchar is another top-tier golfer with a good history here, but his game is also just a little off. Kuchar can't blame his struggles on an injury, however -- he's just a little off.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Matt Kuchar (T23) - $83,000; Season - $1,130,735

This week:
Luke Donald - I've used some heavy-hitters the past few weeks, so I need to dial it back a little this week. Donald is no longer a big gun, but he's got potential each and every week. Considering his track record here, I will be disappointed with anything other than a top-10.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 1214
Rank: 33,274

This Week:

Group A: Jim Furyk, Luke Donald

Group B:
Jordan Spieth, Kevin Streelman, Gary Woodland, Nick Watney

Group C:
Sang-Moon Bae, Kevin Na

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: N/A (); Streak - 0

This week:
Luke Donald - Doubling-up on Donald this week as there's no reason to think he'll miss the cut here. As mentioned, if he's outside the top 10, I'll be surprised.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Greg Vara
Vara is the lead golf writer at RotoWire. He was named the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year in 2005 and 2013. He also picks college football games against the spread in his "College Capper" article.
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