Weekly PGA Preview: The 2018 Season Tees Off

As we readied for the 2017 portion of the PGA Tour season last year, most questions centered on Dustin Johnson and just how high his ceiling was. We never did get an answer, as a pair of socks and a staircase put an end to any DJ speculation fairly early in the season. But his absence spawned an entirely new narrative.

As we enter 2018, the focus is not on just one player, but many. Justin Thomas is the first player who comes to mind, the player of the year and undoubtedly the breakout star last season. Thomas was by no means off the radar heading into 2017, but I dare say no one predicted the kind of season he ended up having. Where does Thomas go from here, though? Several golfers the last decade finished the previous season with a flourish, but not many, if any, followed that breakthrough performance with another special season — at least not in the following season.

Jordan Spieth, an afterthought during the short reign of DJ, found his way back to the top of the golfing world and again looks like the guy we thought he could be when he captured the Masters and the U.S. Open in the same season.

Then there's the comeback of one Tiger Woods. This isn't the first comeback, but it's probably the last, and early returns suggest it might actually be worth getting excited over. What does Woods have up his sleeve — a win, multiple wins, a challenge at a major?

Last year the focus was basically on one player heading into the season. This year it's on a number of golfers, but if we've learned anything about this game over the years, it's that the players we are focused on now, might not be the ones we are looking at 12 months from now.

This week: Tournament of Champions - Plantation Course at Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii

Last Year: Justin Thomas shot a final-round 69 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Hideki Matsuyama.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Jordan Spieth

This is the smallest field of the official season and there are two ways to go about this week. You can take a sleeper and a guaranteed paycheck or you can go for the early lead and take a player like Spieth. If you take Spieth, you are almost guaranteed a top-3, as he's yet to finish outside the top 3 in three starts here. Spieth won here two years ago, so if you are willing to burn him early, this wouldn't be a bad spot.

Dustin Johnson

It wouldn't seem to make much sense to pass on Spieth and take DJ; they have similar value down the road and Spieth has the better track record here. But DJ has a long history of success at this event and it would be a contrarian play against those who are trying to get an early lead. DJ won here in 2013 and has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last five starts at this event.

Pat Perez

It's fitting that Perez is third on this list, as he's the perfect mix of established player and sleeper this week. After the way he played last season, Perez certainly has value, but he's not someone you have to save, like Spieth or DJ. He's also played about as well as anyone the last couple months, so there's a chance that he has some momentum coming in. His track record here is solid, but limited, with a top-10 in 2010 and a T3 last year.

Patrick Cantlay

Now for the sleeper portion of the list. Get used to seeing this name, as Cantlay will be on this list several times this season. With that in mind, you might want to actually save him for later in the season. But it's not like he's an established player, so if you have a feeling about Cantlay this week, then by all means, go for it. Cantlay has not played here, but he finished last season with a ton of momentum, which could carry over to this week.

Xander Schauffele

Schauffele is a lot like Cantlay in that you aren't sure you'll want him later in the season, and he finished last season strong. Schauffele played so well down the stretch that he was one of the final entrants into the Tour Championship, which he won. It's too early to tell if he's the real deal or if he just got really hot for a couple months, but either way, he should be a good pick this week.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

D.A. Points

There are 34 golfers in the field, so it's never easy picking nearly 15 percent of the field to fail, but a good place to start is with the guys who are a surprise on the field list. In other words, "how did he get into the field?" Points is at the top of that list as he was a surprise winner last season. His win came at the Puerto Rico Open, which makes some sense. He's been here twice, but he's never cracked the top 10.

Jhonattan Vegas

Vegas is not in the same category as Points. He's a fairly solid player on the PGA Tour, but he's struggled on this course. Vegas has two starts at this event and finished 27th and T30. He certainly could improve this year, but it would be quite a leap of faith to use him.

Jason Dufner

With the small field, you almost have to nitpick to fine five guys to avoid this week. Sso when I point to Dufner's finish last season and start to this season, you know I don't have a lot of ammo, but it's more than I have with other players in the field. Dufner finished 20th of 30 players at the season-ending Tour Championship last year and was 74th in his only start during the fall portion of this season.

Grayson Murray

2017 was not going well for Murray until he teed it up at the Barbasol Championship in late July. A win there changed everything for Murray in that it secured his card for this season and gained him entry into several high-profile events. What it didn't do was improve his game, as he didn't accomplish much after that win. Murray is still young and now has this entire season to improve without any pressure, but he's never played here and his game wasn't in great shape when we last saw him, so he's an easy fade this week.

Austin Cook

For those that weren't paying attention during the fall portion of the season, this name is probably unfamiliar. To get you up to speed, Cook won the final event of the fall season to get into this event. While Cook could take that momentum into this year, there's a long history of rookies who won during fall only to fall flat during the following year. I'll take a wait-and-see approach.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last event: Scott Brown (MC) - $35,094; Season - $1,193,819

This week: Pat Perez - I'm not in the mood to take a chance this week, and I certainly don't want to burn a big gun, so I'll go right down the middle and take Perez, who parlayed a career season last year into a solid start to the 2017-2018 season. Hopefully, he continues to defy the odds and play at a very high level.

PGATOUR.COM PICKS

A quick note. Yahoo is no longer offering a fantasy golf game, so we are choosing to use the PGATour.com game this season. There will be a bit of a learning curve, so bear with me early on. From what I've seen, this game is much more complicated as far as the scoring, but in the end, like every game, you want to pick the best players each week.

This Week:

Starters: Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Pat Perez, Jordan Spieth

Bench: Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Scott Brown - (MC); Streak - 0

This week: no cut