Weekly Preview: the Memorial

the Memorial Tournament

Muirfield Village G.C.
Dublin, OH

The PGA Tour heads to, well, nowhere new as the city of Dublin, Ohio hosts an event for the second week in a row. Even though the course is the same, it is expected to play a bit different than it did last week. To be exact, it's supposed to be more difficult, which for those that played this past week, shouldn't be much of an adjustment. However, for those that got used to the courses that held events immediately out of the break, it could be quite a shock to the system. This past week at Muirfield Village was the first time the course looked like one capable of containing PGA Tour golfers. Though there were scoring opportunities, it certainly didn't resemble the weekly birdie-fest we had become accustomed to over the previous month. For those that enjoy seeing golfers struggle, at least a little bit, this week should be even better, as the rough will be higher in most spots and the greens will be running hotter. Tougher conditions generally mean higher-quality winners and, for the most part, that has held true in this event. There have been some surprise winners here over the past decade, but for the most part, the cream has risen to the top. In other words, it's best to lean on proven commodities this week.          

LAST YEAR

Patrick Cantlay shot a final-round 64 on his way to a five-stroke victory over Kevin Streelman.

FAVORITES

Bryson DeChambeau (10-1)

Get used to seeing this name atop the list of betting favorites for a while. DeChambeau has played like a man possessed since play resumed and his roll is expected to continue this week. Not only does he have momentum from his win two weeks ago, but he also has a track record at this event, having won it in 2018. The only thing working against him this week is the one-week layoff, but that easily could have helped him recharge.

Justin Thomas (12-1)  

If not for an insanely-hot DeChambeau, Thomas would be the clear favorite this week. Let's be honest, he's one of the best golfers on the planet and he nearly won last week on the same course. What's not to like? While Thomas places highly on this list, he comes in a little under the radar with DeChambeau and Tiger Woods attracting most of the attention.    

Patrick Cantlay (14-1)

Cantlay was in the exact same spot last week at 14-1, and although he didn't win, he did show something Sunday. Cantlay looked like a good play heading into the week, as he had played well at Muirfield in two of his previous three starts, but he stumbled out of the gate and didn't find his form until the final round. With a good start this week, Cantlay will be a factor come Sunday afternoon.

THE NEXT TIER

Dustin Johnson (16-1)

Johnson has played many roles in his career, from underachiever to dominating force to total enigma. Over the past few years, he's fallen into the latter category more often than not, leaving many wondering if he's ever going to be that dominating force again. Considering he won in his most recent, he's at least on the right path. His track record here is solid, with top-10s in two of his past three starts in this event.                        

Tiger Woods (25-1)

I'm not convinced Tiger is going to win this week, or even play well off the extended break, but I felt compelled to put him on this list as his odds have rarely been this favorable when his form has been at least average. As far as we know that's the case this week, but it's obviously been a long time since we've seen him play a competitive round. What we do know is he has found nothing but success in the Memorial, having won it five times and never missing a cut in 17 starts.

Collin Morikawa (25-1)

It may feel like I'm chasing here, but Morikawa is developing into a consistent force on the PGA Tour. He arrived with both Viktor Hovland and Matthew Wolff last season and will likely be connected with those two for as long as his career lasts. The other two drew more fanfare early, but these days it's Morikawa who is making the most noise. Another strong showing this week would go a long way toward making the case he is the best of the bunch.

LONG SHOTS

Gary Woodland (40-1)  

Woodland has been all over the place since the restart, with two poor results and two top-10s. One of his good outings came last week, which makes me think he could be a factor again, especially when you consider he opened with a 73 but still notched a top-5. His track record at this event is a bit scattered, but he has posted a couple top-10s.

Kevin Streelman (60-1)  

Streelman was 80-1 this past week, and although he never seriously threatened, he did hang around the leaderboard all week. Streelman has been on a roll and he's not going to stay this hot for much longer, but considering he has a feel for this track, his run could certainly extend at least another week; and at 60-1, the odds are still right.                      

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Bryson DeChambeau - I can't imagine there are many OAD players that have yet to pull the trigger on DeChambeau, but if there are any left out there, I would think most of them will use him this week. As mentioned earlier, the only thing working against DeChambeau is the layoff this past week. Is that enough to slow him down, though? Not likely.

Moderately-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - As I was making my decision last week I decided to pass on Cantlay because I thought he would have more value this week. After seeing how things played out, I'm glad I made that decision, as I think he's primed to make a run this week. The course will be more difficult, but I think that suits Cantlay well.                  

Lightly-owned Pick: Kevin Streelman - I also considered Streelman last week but didn't pull the trigger simply because there are more higher-level players left to choose from than there are events. With that said, Streelman is as likely to finish in the top 10 this week as just about anyone else, so if you need to make up ground, he's your guy.

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy - Without looking back, I want to say that this space has been reserved for McIlroy or Jon Rahm every week since the break. In every case, their selection as a dud, if you will, has played out as expected. I'm going to fade McIlroy again this week because I just haven't seen anything from him since play resumed that makes me think he's anywhere near his best right now.                              

Last Week: Xander Schauffele (T13) $113,500 Season - $3,298,996  

This Week: Patrick Cantlay - Once again I had to make the call between a big name and Streelman, and again I'm siding with the bigger name. Streelman would have paid off nicely with a top-10 this past week, and although I think he'll play well again, I think Cantlay has a better chance to win, and I need a win right now.                                                            

FANDUEL PICKS  

Upper Range: Patrick Cantlay ($11,600)
Middle Range: Gary Woodland ($10,100)
Lower Range: Henrik Norlander ($7,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Xander Schauffele (T13) - Streak - 1

This Week: Patrick Cantlay - I decided to double-up my OAD pick and Survivor pick last week, and since it worked I'll do it again. Cantlay isn't quite at the point in his career where he's a slam-dunk Survivor pick at a major, so this spot might be his peak value. Cantlay has made the cut at this event in each of his three starts and also did in the Workday Charity Open last week.