Weekly Preview: Valero Texas Open

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio
San Antonio, TX

The PGA Tour heads to San Antonio for the latest edition of the Valero Texas Open.

Not in this week's field is the new No. 1 golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler. Normally I don't pay much attention to the OWGR unless it determines who or who will not play in a given tournament, but Scheffler's insane run to the top deserves a few words. Let's start by saying this: Scheffler isn't the first guy to go on an extended run of success on the PGA Tour. It happens from time to time -- think Dustin Johnson around the end of 2020. What also happens, every time, is the regression. Sometimes it comes rather quickly, sometimes is takes a while, but it always occurs. The question then is, is Scheffler just on an extended heater or is this the start of something big? I generally lean towards the "hot streak" side of this argument, but Scheffler did not come out of nowhere. He was expected to be one of the better players on the PGA Tour at some point. The fact that he hadn't won on Tour until earlier this season was a surprise. Now we have another surprise, as he holds both three wins and the No. 1 ranking, and that all happened in a matter of a couple months. The Masters in two weeks will be a big barometer for Scheffler. If he wins there, we might be in the midst of the type of run we have not seen in a long while.

All odds via golfodds.com as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Jordan Spieth shot a final-round 66 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Charley Hoffman.

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (9-1)

We don't have a super deep field, and there's not that much at the top, which is why McIlroy has a single digit on the left side of his odds. Though he fared well in his first start here in 2013, it was his only start here, which says something. Golfers tend to play courses and events that suit their game, and the fact he hasn't played here in nine years is a little concerning. He finished in second place in 2013, so it's even more puzzling that he hasn't been back. Whatever the case, there's not much value at this number.

Jordan Spieth (14-1)

Spieth enters the event with the second-best odds, but if he was near the top of his game, he'd be the clear favorite. He's not though, as proven by his performance this past week. Spieth is the defending champion and also has a runner-up finish at this event, but can he win if his game is not in great shape? He can turn it around on a dime, but at these odds, there's probably not enough value to make a play on him.

Corey Conners (20-1)

It appears that Conners might have pulled out of his year-long funk at the Match Play event. His poor play over the past year came as a big surprise, as all indications prior to that pointed to Conners taking the next step. Last week, though, he resembled the golfer that looked like the next big thing. The only question is, will his success this past week translate to a stroke-play event? I don't see why not, and at this number, there is enough value to throw a few bucks his direction.

THE NEXT TIER

Abraham Ancer (20-1)

Ancer is off to a slow start in 2022, but if his play last week is an indication, he might be turning a corner. His track record here is not great, but it's not bad either. He's made the cut in all four tries, but he hasn't done much on the weekend. If he's getting his game back, he could definitely wind up in the winner's circle.

Bryson DeChambeau (25-1)

I wouldn't suggest this play in the OAD format because we know that DeChambeau is not near the top of his game, but that's why he is listed at these odds. If DeChambeau was fully healthy and in form, he'd be at or at least close to the top. He's not, but considering the payout, he is worth a look.

Chris Kirk (40-1)

Kirk is an interesting play, as his form has been solid for most of the season and his track record here is very solid. Kirk went through a lull in recent years, but he usually fared well in this event. Kirk finished top-10 here in three of his past six starts, with a high of T6 this past year. He did miss the cut at THE PLAYERS, but prior to that he had a run of three consecutive top-15s.

LONG SHOTS

Charley Hoffman (60-1)

Hoffman is nowhere near the top of his game, but he's always a threat to win this event. He's a perfect 15-for-15 in cuts made here and he finished top-10 in almost half of those starts. Hoffman won this event in 2016 and finished runner-up in each of his past two starts here. At this number, there's plenty value to be had.

Anirban Lahiri (100-1)

I'm sure we missed the boat on this one, but what if his performance at THE PLAYERS unlocked something? I'm not alone in thinking this might be a decent play, as his odds decreased from 125-1 to this number in just one day. Lahiri not only has the benefit of good form, he also posted a T5 at this track last year.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jordan Spieth - He's not on top of his game, but there's not a lot at the top of the field and he will be playing in Texas, so he is going to be a popular play. Given the lack of quality options, I can't argue if you go with Spieth, but I'd wait on him personally.

Moderately-owned Pick: Corey Conners - The picks are bound to be all over the map, as the favorite has virtually no track record here and there aren't a ton of options that stick out. If Conners is truly back in form, then this is a sound play, as his track record here is among the best in the field. Conners won the Valero Texas Open in 2019.

Lightly-owned Pick: Chris Kirk - Though the selections could be all over the place, I think most OAD players will be focused on Spieth and Conners at the top and Hoffman on the opposite end. That doesn't leave much room for Kirk, but if you are looking to avoid using a high-end player, he is probably your best option.

Buyer Beware: Tony Finau - After watching Finau this past week and seeing his results this year, there appears to be something off with his game. I thought he'd take the next step after notching his first full-field win last year, but that hasn't happened yet, and it doesn't appear to be on the horizon either.

Last Week: Xander Schauffele - T35 - $58,239

Season Total: $5,301,585

This Week: Chris Kirk - I don't want to use Spieth because he's nowhere near top form, and while I like the Conners play, I think he'll be pretty popular, so I'm going with Kirk. I'm not concerned about his missed cut at THE PLAYERS, as the weather there threw a lot of golfers off. Kirk has played well for most of the year and he likes this track.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Corey Conners - $11,600
Middle Range: Chris Kirk - $10,500
Lower Range: Richard Bland - $8,800

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: N/A

Streak: 3

This Week: Charley Hoffman - You'd be hard-pressed to find another streak of made cuts as long as Hoffman's is here. I know he's not in the best form right now, but he just finds a way at TPC San Antonio. He's had lulls before and has always found a way to play the weekend when he shows up here. He will do that again this week.