There are three tiers to the NHL's playoff structure as I see it this year. There are teams at the top of the conferences; teams who are below them, but in safe playoff standing; and teams battling for wild-card spots and just hoping to get in.
Teams at the top include the 'Hawks, Capitals, Panthers, Stars and the three California-based franchises. All of these clubs can be lumped into the class of Stanley Cup favorites, even though some will definitely not get past the second round of the playoffs owing to the tournament's structure. If they are serious about boosting their chances, they should all be active at the trade deadline.
That means they ought to be willing to give up prospects and/or top draft picks to acquire pieces that will bolster their rosters, either in top-line roles or for depth insurance. The fact is that the two-month playoff format is a war of attrition. There will be injuries, bumps and bruises along the way, requiring depth at all positions. We've already seen the Caps add a depth defenseman (Mike Weber) in a move that recognizes the inevitability of injuries when teams play every second night in these high-stakes contests. This is also the time when the Capitals expect to get the most value out of the addition of midseason signing Mike Richards.
The Kings did the same thing in bringing Vincent Lecavalier and Luke Schenn on, giving them more experience and depth to do battle in
There are three tiers to the NHL's playoff structure as I see it this year. There are teams at the top of the conferences; teams who are below them, but in safe playoff standing; and teams battling for wild-card spots and just hoping to get in.
Teams at the top include the 'Hawks, Capitals, Panthers, Stars and the three California-based franchises. All of these clubs can be lumped into the class of Stanley Cup favorites, even though some will definitely not get past the second round of the playoffs owing to the tournament's structure. If they are serious about boosting their chances, they should all be active at the trade deadline.
That means they ought to be willing to give up prospects and/or top draft picks to acquire pieces that will bolster their rosters, either in top-line roles or for depth insurance. The fact is that the two-month playoff format is a war of attrition. There will be injuries, bumps and bruises along the way, requiring depth at all positions. We've already seen the Caps add a depth defenseman (Mike Weber) in a move that recognizes the inevitability of injuries when teams play every second night in these high-stakes contests. This is also the time when the Capitals expect to get the most value out of the addition of midseason signing Mike Richards.
The Kings did the same thing in bringing Vincent Lecavalier and Luke Schenn on, giving them more experience and depth to do battle in their difficult playoff path. They're among the top-tier clubs that will be competing for additional pieces over the next few days.
Florida may be a team to watch; the Panthers have significant cap space and have seen a spike in their attendance this season, which may translate into some unexpected financial flexibility that will enable them to take on rental player or two.
The three California teams know they will be duking it out with one another in the first two playoff rounds, so you know they will be trying to outfox and maybe even outbid one another for available impact players. Only one team can win, but these clubs have the best chance for ultimate success and need to at least consider overpaying to get the greatest returns.
Teams in that second-tier group include the Lightning, Wings, Bruins, Rangers, Islanders and Blues. Each of these squads has some breathing room, having distanced themselves from the fringe with fairly secure playoff position, but they don't measure up against the top clubs. These teams are in the position of pondering the choice among the status quo, proceeding with their current lot, risking a big return with a bold move prior to the deadline or looking at cap-relief opportunities that may damage their playoff runs.
Perhaps most notably in this category, the Lightning appear willing to forego future returns on Steven Stamkos in exchange for another shot at driving deep into the playoffs. If they win the Cup, losing Stamkos will have been worth it. Who knows? He might even stay. Alternatively, an early playoff exit would not leave the "Tampa and Stamkos" saga with a happy ending. He would surely bolt (pun intended). Similarly, the Bruins have winger Loui Eriksson as a high-end UFA, and they must be weighing the benefit of hanging onto him versus trading him for controllable pieces or future assets.
The Wings seem minimally satisfied by extending their consecutive playoff run, but must be looking at their options with the knowledge that signature players Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Niklas Kronwall are nearing the end of the line. Sure, they have infused this roster with talented youth in a seamless retooling that will keep them relevant for years, but do they want to take a real shot at the big prize to reward their veterans?
In the meantime, the Rangers and Islanders have their own windows of opportunity to consider. The Islanders have transitioned to Brooklyn, a relocation that has been met with mixed reviews, and John Tavares may find himself in the throes of Stamkos-like saga in two years with an expiring contract. The Rangers are currently without Rick Nash, but their perennial MVP, Henrik Lundqvist, is still playing at a high level. The fact is that both stars are in their 30s, and one has to wonder if GM Glen Sather might load up their roster around them.
The Blues have strung together several solid regular seasons, only to repeatedly disappoint at playoff time. With their two starting goalies alternating long stints on the IR, it seems they might be considering an addition at that position as well as some forward upgrades to bolster their depth.
All of these teams have motivations to look at short-term additions, but will those moves really position them to deal with the heavyweight contenders?
The playoff bubble clubs include the Penguins, Devils, Hurricanes, Predators, Avalanche and Wild. These teams are in a precarious race that will see some of them fall short of postseason qualification. They are also all flawed clubs that have to be very measured in their approach to trading ahead of the deadline. Do they really want to trade future assets to get a slightly improved profile? That depends on the cores of their rosters and the aspects that require an upgrade.
Pittsburgh has the most unique roster, composed of expensive front-line talent complemented by cheap and lightly regarded depth. The Pens have precious little wiggle room, having already spent near the cap's upper limit, but they're getting some relief from IR placements, such as Pascal Dupuis and Evgeni Malkin. Their biggest boost down the stretch will be Malkin's return to good health, rejoining the rejuvenated Sidney Crosby, who has found his top gear in 2016. That 1-2 punch may still have no equal.
The Devils look like the Cinderella team that should just be happy to be where it is – an unexpected playoff position. We've talked about the quandary to dump or keep expensive pending UFAs in Carolina (Eric Staal and Cam Ward). That's a tough call for a playoff-starved franchise. The Preds (in goal), Wild (offense) and Avalanche (in goal/defense) are also in the playoff chase, but are all lightly regarded because they are in smaller markets and each have glaring weaknesses that make them underdog candidates relative to the other teams.
Each of the teams noted here has to do some juggling between short and long-range planning within the confines of salary cap (or self-imposed budgetary restraints), and while that is a season-long part of doing business in the NHL, it becomes more of a focal point issue at this time of year.
The same thing rings true in season-long fantasy games, as you have decide whether to go for the big prizes this season or try to maximize trade value of expendable players on your underperforming team. Have a good look around at your competition and target whichever teams offer you the best chance to improve your lot, whether it's for this season or to help you set up for next year.
