Eight games, nine roster sports and a $45,000 salary cap. We're nearing a large enough statistical base to beef up the analysis and find soft spots to target, and there are a few cushy matchups and plenty of value finds Thursday.
Player Recommendations
G Andrew Hammond, OTT vs. NJD ($7,550): While it is easy to toss out stats from Hammond's mythical run to close out the 2014-15 season, it is important to remind the out-of-nowhere savour lasted just two playoff games and allowed seven goals. Fast forward to Thursday, and Hammond is making his season debut against a sputtering New Jersey offense averaging fewer than two goals per game. Hammond is affordable, and the Senators have been sitting on consecutive losses since Saturday.
C Derek Stepan, NYR vs. ARI, $5,200: The Coyotes have lost three straight games, and Stepan presents nice value at his current cap hit. He hasn't exploded offensive to start, but he posted 28 points -- 12 goals -- through 33 games at Madison Square Gardens last season, and Arizona shouldn't be viewed as anything other than a plus-matchup yet. Plus, look for a discounted Stepan to click with on-again, off-again linemate Rick Nash Thursday.
W Matt Nieto, SJS vs. LAK ($3,900): The 23-year-old, third-year winger will join Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski atop the San Jose depth chart, which makes Nieto a slam-dunk value Thursday. While he has yet to take a top-six job and run with it, expect his experience to help slow the game down enough for his speed and shooting arsenal to click. The offensive fireworks might not set off Thursday, but it won't take more than a plus-rating and a pair of shots to return value, and there is upside for a July 4 showing.
W Rick Nash, NYR vs. ARI, $5,400: Sure, Nash has struggled with just two helpers through seven games, but his price reflects the results and sits in profit territory. He has at least four shots in five of his seven outings, and his PDO sits at 96.7, which screams bad puck luck. The price is right to take a speculative stab at grabbing exposure to Nash's first large showing of the campaign.
W Phil Kessel, PIT vs. DAL ($5,550): While it has been a pedestrian start for Kessel, and the Pittsburgh attack in general, the offseason acquisition did register six shots on goal in the season opener against the Stars. He is also priced much below the top tier, so given his high-shot volume and elite running mates in all situations, there is a lot to like about the savings, especially relative to Kessel's upside.
W Alexander Ovechkin/T.J. Oshie, WAS at VAN, ($5,900/$4,950): With the value-hunt theme achieved and also hammered home in the analysis, the spending begins. Ovechkin has four goals, six points and 21 shots through four games, and he is the focal point of a potent power play. Oshie has blossomed next to Ovechkin, too, with three goals, two helpers and nine shots over his past three showings. Vancouver has been stingy thus far, but their only clicking opponent this season, St. Louis, posted four goals on them.
D Trevor van Riemsdyk, CHI vs. FLA ($2,700): Back to the savings, van Riemsdyk has five shots and six blocked shots over his past four games, and he stands to see extra minutes with Duncan Keith (knee) out for the next four to six weeks. Finding the score sheet would be a huge bonus, but TVR only needs to do more of the same to justify the cap relief he provides.
D Matt Niskanaen, WAS at VAN ($3,850): Until Niskanen's cost catches up to the reliable production he returns, there is no reason to shy away from the minute eater who is averaging 23:28 minutes per night. In fact, it has been an uncharacteristically slow start in the peripheral columns, as Niskanen has just six shots and nine blocked shots with his two goals and two assists doing the heavy lifting.
