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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Perry is an easy target of criticism because he was also an easy candidate for a down year entering 2016-17. It turned out to be an extremely poor season, as the veteran posted his worst offensive showing since establishing himself as a regular during the 2006-07 campaign. However, there is definitely bounce-back potential. Perry posted a career-low 8.8 shooting percentage last year after recording a 16.0 mark over the previous three seasons. Modest statistical correction alone will provide an uptick in production, so even with the 32-year-old winger past his offensive prime, a respectable rebound is within reach. Plus, Perry still moves the needle across all categories and is locked into a role with the No. 1 power-play unit.
It’s hard to believe that Perry and fellow franchise cornerstone Ryan Getzlaf are 31 years old, as it seems like a lifetime since they hoisted Lord Stanley’s cup way back in 2007. They’ve been among the most prolific duos in the league in the decade since, treating fantasy owners to near point-per-game production regardless of their supporting cast. As for Perry, he’s not going to bag 50 goals, flirt with 80-plus points or come close to triple-digit PIM anymore, but the Peterborough native found the back of the net 34 times last season in addition to dishing out 28 assists over a full 82-game schedule – good for a rate of 0.76 points per game. Throw in his 68 PIM, which was remarkably close to the 67 and 65 he put up in the previous two seasons, 12 power-play markers (eighth best in the NHL) and a shooting percentage of 15.8 on 215 shots on goal (not far off his career mark of 13.6), and it’s clear to see there’s still a ton of top-tier value to be had when it comes to No. 10.
Perry was once again a fantasy monster last season, recording 33 goals and 55 points in 67 games. Despite missing time with a knee injury and a case of the mumps virus, Perry still managed to be a top-10 NHL goal scorer, helping the Ducks finish with a whopping 109 points. The 30-year-old continued his dominance in the playoffs, racking up 10 goals and 18 points in 16 postseason games as the Ducks bowed out to the Blackhawks in the Western Conference Finals. While he scored just four goals with the man advantage in 2014-15, Perry helped fantasy owners with 67 PIM and a tidy plus-13 rating. The feisty winger has regressed a bit since his career-best 50-goal, 98-point season in 2010-11, but he’s still an elite scoring threat, who forms one of the best one-two punches in the NHL alongside Ryan Getzlaf. With 40-goal potential and strong PIM and shot totals, Perry remains one of the best all-around options in the game.
Perry had another great offensive season in 2013-14, recording 43 goals and 39 assists in 81 games. That put him second in the NHL in goals and fifth in points. The addition of Ryan Kesler to the Ducks’ lineup should create more opportunity for Mr. Perry -- opposing teams will need to figure out which of the Ducks’ top lines to check, and it will probably shift from game to game. We could see another 90-point season from Perry if Kesler takes some of that focus -- Perry only needs a split-second to find a seam and score.
Exception or norm? Perry's Hart-worthy 50 goals and 98 points are fading in the rear view, but that doesn't mean there isn't tremendous value in his game. He registered 15 goals and 21 assists in his 44 games last season, a pace that would have netted him 28 goals and 67 points. Those numbers clearly aren't Hart-like or even Perry-like, to be honest. The Ducks figure he'll rebound -- why else would they gift him enough money to buy a remote Pacific island in a contract extension? He'll need to adjust to the fact the Ducks' roster is minus the big body of Bobby Ryan and opponents will have Perry firmly in their crosshairs. But the team has tried to balance their lines this offseason and we think that will actually free Perry to be himself again. We're thinking another 35-goal, near point-per-game season is on the immediate horizon. Where does that put him on your draft list? And keeper leaguers should count on him settling into a 35-goal, 75-point pace -- with an occasional spike here and there -- for the next three or four seasons.
Perry, Perry, quite contrary -- where the heck did your game go? After posting the league's only 50-goal effort and winning the Hart Trophy in 2010-11, Perry's game seemed to evaporate at points last year. He did finish with 37 goals, which was good enough for a tie for sixth in the NHL and he still brought you over 100 PIMs. But his 60 points were a whopping 38 fewer than the previous season. We know he caught lightning in a bottle in 2010-11, but we aren't prepared to give up on him just yet. He's one of the most annoying players in the league when he's on his game and at 27, he's just now entering his prime. He's probably not the near-100 point superstar he was two years ago, but he could have several 40-goal, 70+ point, 100 PIM seasons left in him. Draft him for that -- not his exploits of 2010-11.
Perry was the only player in the NHL to score 50 goals in 2010-11 and his late-season rush (19 goals over his last 16 games) helped the talented young winger pick up the Hart trophy as the league's MVP. Perry tallied 98 points (50 G, 48 A) to pace the Ducks and while his point total has consistently grown from year-to-year, a repeat 50-goal campaign may not be in the cards. Still, there's little reason to believe he won't produce at better than a point-per-game pace again this season.
Perry played a ton of hockey last season. Starting with the month of September, he played 102 hockey games (the only Duck to appear in all 82 regular season games), added a gold medal to his Stanley Cup and Memorial Cup championships, and led the team in points with 76 (27G 49A). It is clear that he knows how to win hockey games and he is just 25 years old. There is no doubt that the young winger should be able to reproduce those numbers in 2010-11, if not improve upon them. The Ducks are using Perry as part of their core group of players so he should see time on their top line, and with his stamina, he looks to be in every situation possible.
Perry had his best season to date in 2008-09, scoring 32 goals and 70 points. He also plays the game with a bit of an edge as he has had over 100 penalty minutes in each of the past two seasons making him a player worth considering early in leagues that reward penalty minutes. With Getzlaf centering for Perry and Bobby Ryan this should be one of the more formidable trios in the NHL.
Perry's production improved for the second straight season, as he finished with 29 goals and 25 assists despite missing 12 games. In addition to having a nose for the net, Perry tallied 108 minutes in the penalty box as well. Skating on the top line with Ryan Getzlaf will continue to yield a healthy number of scoring opportunities, while he's one of the safer bets for 30 goals that you'll find. As of press time, the Ducks were unable to bring Teemu Selanne back into the fold because of salary-cap limitations, so Perry will be counted on even more heavily if general manager Brian Burke is unable to find a taker for Mathieu Schneider.
Perry also played in his first full season last year with the Ducks. He had 44 points in 82 games and may have the opportunity to improve on that depending on how the fallout from the Teemu Selanne situation impacts his linemates and ice time. During the playoffs, he ranked fourth on the team in points and was another steady young contributor who seemed to rise to the occasion when called upon.
Perry, like fellow rookie Ryan Getzlaf, put together a solid campaign 13-12-25 in 56 games. He'll likely land on "young-gun" scoring line this season with Getzlaf, and 50-point season isn't out of the question with the increased time at both even strength and on the power play.
It's only a matter of time before Perry is in the NHL as an everyday, fantasy scoring machine. While he may not make the team this year -- thanks to the signing of Teemu Selanne -- we feel he'll be planted on one of the top three lines next year when Selanne is gone. Perry has all the markings of becoming an NHL scoring threat -- from anywhere on the ice. He combines great ice vision with amazing skating ability. The future is blindingly bright for Perry.