This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
Beat the Cap: An Offensive Start
Many excellent hockey players fail to tip the scales in the fantasy game, and while Patrice Bergeron's contributions to Boston are endless, he is an average -- at best -- fantasy player. In the real game, he is a highly regarded two-way pivot, whose defensive capabilities are superior to his offensive production. Bergeron's zone-start percentage is one way of statistically quantifying his defensive responsibilities.
Bergeron starts just 48.4 percent of his shifts in the offensive end of the ice. For comparison, John Tavares starts 76.9 percent of his shifts in the opposition's zone. The significant contrast has equally significant fantasy implications. Skills aside, Tavares lands himself in offensive situations more frequently than Bergeron, which in itself, improves Tavares offensive and fantasy upside.
A second example, New York teammates Ryan McDonagh and Dan Boyle have a large disparity in their zone-start percentages. McDonagh's 45.2 percent mark is much lower than Boyle's, who begins 65.7 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone. McDonagh's real-world value trumps Boyle's, but is he the superior fantasy play? Likely, but not by a lot, which is, at least in part, directly tired to their contrasting usages.
Similar to all fantasy sports, opportunity often trumps talent and where a player spends -- or at least starts -- the majority of their ice time is a worthy consideration in the daily racket.
The Ebb
The zone-start statistic does not count neutral-zone faceoffs, so sticking with the Bergeron example, 366 of his shifts have begun in the offensive zone and 390 in the defensive zone. Clearly, it isn't a significant difference, especially over 45 games.
However, when compared to Tavares' tallies, the variance is huge. Tavares has begun 482 shifts in the offensive zone compared to measly 145 in the defensive zone. 92 more shifts (two per game) of Tavares' shifts have started in the opponent's end of the rink than Bergeron's.
The main fantasy take here is shifts starting in the offensive zone rarely end with the puck in your own net. Or at least the probability of your team scoring a goal, creating a scoring opportunity or just putting a shot on net is much higher. Being closer to the opposing net is a fantasy plus.
Backtracking, alike similar strategies and topics discussed in his column, zone starts is an additional consideration and piece to the puzzle. In isolation it means little, and you shouldn't let it interfere with your lineup building blocks.
David Backes is the prototype and card carrying member of when not to worry about zone starts, as he begins just 44.8 percent of his shifts in the offensive zones. His seven-game point streak, which checks in at seven goals and seven helpers attests.
Furthermore, it really shouldn't be a significant concern for any forward. You should be targeting players who receive top-six minutes, power-play time and are playing in favorable matchups. If you're in a coin-flip situation, and there is a significant disparity in zone starts, fine.
Where a zone-start percentage can help is with your defensemen, especially young and inexpensive ones. Coaches will protect their young rearguards' minutes and employ them in favorable situations. Veteran offensive defensemen often receive the same treatment, but they're not usually as affordable.
Finding productive cap relief is a difficult pursuit, so identifying young offensive defensemen being placed in low-risk situations can help, especially on sites incorporating plus/minus.
The Flow
Here are three cheap- young defensemen to consider, if you're looking to pinch pennies on the back end. Each player's offensive zone start percentage is listed.
Eric Gelinas, D, New Jersey - 72.6 percent: While he is only viable against teams with a weak penalty kill, Gelinas has a huge point shot, and the Devils' power play is currently a top-10 unit.
David Rundblad, D, Chicago - 67.9 percent: He carries a low price and plays limited minutes, however nearly always finds a way to post fantasy points. He has only posted a minus-rating twice all season, too.
Ryan Murphy, D, Carolina - 65.9 percent: The 2011 first-round selection missed a significant chunk of the season due to injury. Now, he is logging No. 1 power-play minutes, and his offensive upside has never been questioned.
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