This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
David Onama ($8,600)
Onama's price is a couple hundred more than I would like, but I still think he has a real chance to pay off. Both he and his opponent, Nate Landwehr, are brawlers. Both men throw and eat a ton of volume on the feet, although Onama is the more likely of the two to mix in a takedown. I think Onama has both a power and overall athleticism edge, and he's coming off back-to-back stoppage wins over Gabriel Benitez (knockout) and Garrett Armfield (submission). If you think this fight ends quickly, Onama should be your pick.
Azamat Murzakanov ($8,400)
Undefeated as a professional at 11-0, Murzakanov only has one official UFC fight under his belt, a knockout of Tafon Nchukwi this past March. He'll be 36 years of age this coming October, so the long term staying power isn't great, but I like him in this spot against an opponent in Devin Clark who has a long history of inconsistency. Clark is 3-3 in his past half dozen fights. He typically performs fine against sub-par opponents, but really struggles against those who are even halfway decent. Rolling with Murzakanov is a bit risky because we've barely seen him, but the price seems to be right.
Don't forget to try out these plays on the RotoWire DraftKings MMA DFS Lineup Optimizer.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Gabriel Benitez OVER 38.5 significant strikes, Bruno Silva OVER 37.5 significant strikes, Lupita Godinez UNDER 3.0 takedowns
The first two plays here are obvious ones, headlined by Benitez. Gabriel averages 4.6 significant strikes per minute, while his opponent, Charlie Ontiveros, has served as a punching bag over the course of his first two UFC bouts, absorbing the exact 4.6 significant strikes per minute that Benitez is landing. Neither man is a grappler, so it's difficult to envision a scenario in which Benitez doesn't hit this number unless the fight ends much quicker than originally expected.
Unlike the Benitez v. Ontiveros fight, Silva v. Gerald Meerschaert is a styles clashing. Silva is a stand-up guy with ridiculous power, while Meerschaert is one of the middleweight division's most talented submission specialists. Silva would obviously be in trouble if Gerald can get his wrestling game going, but the advantage the Brazilian possesses on the feet is massive, and Meerschaert has proven to be tough as nails, leaving Silva in a great position to cash here.
This final one is simply the case of the number being too high. Yes, Godinez averages a ridiculous 5.37 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Hill defends the takedown at a reasonable 76-percent clip and she has never been taken down more than three times in her 20 UFC bouts. I'm playing the odds on this one.
Bets to Consider
Dominick Cruz to win outright (+190)
I love Cruz as a surprisingly massive underdog to get past Marlon Vera outright in the main event. Vera is a solid opponent with no significant weaknesses in his game, so it won't be easy, but I would have this fight much closer to a pick 'em than what the odds show. The fact Cruz will be 37 years of age in the near future is a bit concerning because it doesn't allow him any room for error moving forward, but I love the price.
Nina Nunes to win outright (+145)
I was on Nunes to win outright when these two women were originally scheduled to fight about a month ago and nothing has changed since. Calvillo has been extremely overrated during her time with the company, displaying poor fight IQ and a limited offensive skill set. Nunes doesn't have a dynamic skill set in her own right, but I think she can win this fight without accomplishing a whole heck of a lot.
Bruno Silva (-285) and Martin Buday (-260) both to win outright (-115)
I touched on Silva earlier. I think he just has too much power and too much of an edge on the feet for Meerschaert to pull the upset. A product of Dana White's Contender Series, Buday made his official company debut in April, earning the rare technical unanimous decision over Chris Barnett. He's a massive man at 6-foot-5, and the power is real. His opponent, Lukasz Brzeski, is another product of the Contender Series and will be making his official company debut. -115 seems like a very fair price for these two.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC San Diego best bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire Sports Betting section.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Ariane Lipski OVER 75.5 total strikes
Lipski and Priscila Cachoeira were scheduled to fight a week ago, before Lipski missed weight and eventually wasn't cleared to compete. I had the under on Lipski's strike total in this forum a week ago, but the number at that time was 97.5. It's come down more than 20 strikes in the span of a week, making me lean in the opposite direction.
